In 2012, Kazakh wheat production is forecast to fall from the record crop of 2011 as a result of expected lower area and a return to more average yields.
Nevertheless as a result of huge stocks and steady demand, exports are only expected to fall slightly and remain at a high level.
Although Kazakhstan will remain one of the world’s largest flour exporters, the share of flour in total wheat exports is expected to continue to decline.
Kazakhstan wheat production in 2012 is forecast by FAS/Astana at 15 million metric tons, a significant drop from last year’s record 22.7 million metric tons crop.
This forecast is very preliminary as nearly all wheat produced in Kazakhstan is spring wheat, and planting of this crop will not even begin for more than a month.
This forecast assumes a decrease to trend yields as well as a slight decline in area from last year. Production of barley is also expected to fall to 2.1 million metric tons from last year’s production of 2.6 million metric tons.
Source: Black Sea Grain