Thermal coal exports from Australia and Indonesia are expected to rise in 2012 as higher electricity demand will drive imports into emerging economies in Asia, Australia's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) said Wednesday.
In 2012, Australia's exports are expected to increase by 11% to 164 million mt, BREE said.
Indonesia's exports are seen rising 2% to total 308 million mt in 2012, before increasing by a further 4% in 2013 to 319 million mt, it said.
Exports from Colombia are forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2012, before increasing by 6 million mt to total 82 million mt in 2013, BREE added.
Global thermal coal seaborne trade in 2012 is seen rising by 4% to 871 million mt from last year and by a further 5% in 2013 to 919 million mt from 2012, BREE said in the report.
Indian imports seen up 14% in 2012 Indian thermal coal imports are seen rising 14% in 2012 from last year and by a further 17% in 2013 to 104 million mt, BREE said. China is forecast to up imports by 6 million mt in both 2012 and 2013 to 145 and 151 million mt, respectively, it added.
However, imports into the European Union are forecast to fall by 1 million mt to 160 million mt, due to weak economic growth and lower electricity demand stemming from the euro zone crisis, BREE said.
Japan's imports are seen rising slightly in 2012 to 128 million mt due to the temporary shutdown of its nuclear electricity generation capacity and is expected to rise by a further 1 million mt in 2013.
In 2012, exports from the US are seen at 36 million mt, up 16% from last year, it said. However, it expects US exports to fall to 31 million mt in 2013.
US domestic thermal coal production is expected to decline sharply in the second half of 2012 due to sagging domestic demand and lower export prices, BREE said.
Despite the fall in production, exports should be robust as producers sell their stocks before placing mines on care and maintenance, it added.
In 2011-12, Australia's thermal coal production is expected to increase by 8% to total 223 million mt compared with last year and by a further 9% to 244 million mt in 2012-13, it added.
Source: Platts