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Oil little changed as markets weigh Russian supply woes

Oil was little changed on Tuesday after rising in the previous session as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks while a slightly weaker U.S. dollar offered some support. Brent crude futures for May slipped 12 cents to $86.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 8 cents to $81.87 a barrel at 1005 GMT. Brent rose 1.5% in Monday’s session while WTI gained 1.6% higher after Russia’s government ordered companies to cut output in the ...

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The Commodities Feed: US inflation data in focus

Energy – European natural gas trades strong Crude oil prices have been trading flat this morning after recovering back to $86.75/bbl yesterday amid ongoing supply concerns. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ will be meeting next week, and the committee is unlikely to recommend any changes to the current production cuts agreement until the end of second quarter of this year. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Venezuelan supply lingers as the current sanction relief comes to an end in April 2024, and the US is yet to decide on further relief. ...

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Oil market saw frenzy of hedge fund buying

Investors have purchased oil at the fastest rate for more than four years, amid optimism that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies will continue to restrict production while an improving economic outlook boosts consumption. Ukraine’s drone attacks on oil refineries and export terminals in Russia, which threaten to disrupt production and exports of both crude and fuels, have turbocharged the shift in sentiment to more bullishness. Over the seven days ending on March 19, hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 140 million barrels in the six ...

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December natural gas price in Southern California was the lowest since 2015

Natural gas prices at SoCal Citygate, the major price hub in Southern California, averaged $3.61 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in December 2023—the lowest December price since 2015 when adjusted for inflation—according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence. The main drivers for the low price this past December were: Annually, natural gas consumption typically peaks in California during December. The unusually high natural gas prices at the end of 2022 were partially due to weather-related demand. November 2022 was the coldest November in California since 2000. California experienced 399 ...

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Europe, Africa oil markets weaken on refining maintenance, extra supply

Crude oil physical markets in Europe and Africa have weakened in response to peak refinery maintenance and extra supply from the United States and Saudi Arabia, dampening the impact of Red Sea shipping delays, according to traders, flows data and analysts. These factors, to some extent, mitigate the effect that rising crude prices will have on energy costs. A jump in energy costs could threaten to unwind some of the recent falls in global inflation just as central banks are expected to begin cutting interest rates. The outright Brent futures ...

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Oil traders expect stocks to fall significantly after OPEC extends cuts

Global petroleum inventories are only slightly below the long-term seasonal average but futures prices have already moved into a steep backwardation as traders anticipate they will deplete further over the rest of 2024. OECD commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products are estimated to have been around 75 million barrels (-3% or -0.48 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average at the end of February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” shows the deficit has changed very little since March 2023 despite some fairly significant swings ...

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China’s CNOOC to prioritize production, expanding overseas business: executives

China’s top offshore producer CNOOC will continue prioritizing exploration and development in domestic assets, while expanding overseas business and pushing forward energy transition actively and prudently, senior officials said March 21 at the company’s 2023 annual results briefing. “Strategically, we will invest more effort in exploration and development to lift domestic reserves and production as well as push forward energy transition in the long term,” Chairman Wang Dongjin said. CEO and President Zhou Xinhuai said the company will keep spending Yuan 13 billion-14 billion ($1.8 billion-$1.94 billion) annually in domestic ...

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Russia orders companies to cut oil output to meet OPEC+ target

Russia’s government has ordered companies to reduce oil output in the second quarter to ensure they meet a production target of 9 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of June in line with its pledges to OPEC+, three industry sources said on Monday. Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia would cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, in coordination with some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Countries and allied ...

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OPEC: Assessment of the global economy

In 2023, global economic growth continued to show a better-than-expected performance towards the end of the year. In the most recently published data, the major economies of the US and India reported strong economic growth in 2H23, and growth in China, Brazil and Russia kept a steady momentum. However, the Eurozone and Japan saw slight growth declines in 2H23. These growth trends are expected to carry over into 1H24, leading to an economic growth forecast in 2024 of 2.8%, y-o-y, which is then set to accelerate further to reach 2.9%, ...

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Oil market saw frenzy of hedge fund buying

Investors have purchased oil at the fastest rate for more than four years, amid optimism that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies will continue to restrict production while an improving economic outlook boosts consumption. Ukraine’s drone attacks on oil refineries and export terminals in Russia, which threaten to disrupt production and exports of both crude and fuels, have turbocharged the shift in sentiment to more bullishness. Over the seven days ending on March 19, hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 140 million barrels in the six ...

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Canadian crude price discounts tighten as pipeline capacity rises, but for how long?

Canadian crude price discounts have narrowed since November, in part because the long-awaited Trans Mountain crude pipeline expansion is due to come on stream in the second quarter of 2024. Producers may celebrate the extra pipeline capacity as a cure for deep price discounts, but for how long? Considering Western Canada’s production plans, aided, producers hope, by a large-scale carbon capture project, price discounts could easily widen as soon as the marginal barrel has difficult time finding an outlet. Spot Western Canadian Select crude has averaged at a $13.92/b discount ...

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Middle East Crude-Benchmarks fall to month’s lows

Middle East crude benchmarks Oman and Dubai slipped on Friday as trade for May-loading cargoes wound down. ICE Murban’s premium to Dubai quotes extended declines, falling 26 cents to $1.16 a barrel, the lowest level this month. ARBITRAGE PetroChina’s Jieyang refinery will receive its first direct crude oil cargo from Venezuela this weekend, according to trade sources and shiptracking data on Kpler, after Washington temporarily lifted sanctions on the OPEC producer. The 2 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude onboard supertanker Elysia is due to arrive at Jieyang on March ...

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Oil traders expect stocks to fall significantly after OPEC extends cuts

Global petroleum inventories are only slightly below the long-term seasonal average but futures prices have already moved into a steep backwardation as traders anticipate they will deplete further over the rest of 2024. OECD commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products are estimated to have been around 75 million barrels (-3% or -0.48 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average at the end of February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” shows the deficit has changed very little since March 2023 despite some fairly significant swings ...

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Arbitrage for Canadian crude to China opens ahead of Trans Mountain Expansion startup

Arbitrage inflows of crude cargoes into Asia, particularly heavy crude into China, could potentially see an uptick upon the commencement of Canada’s Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in second-quarter 2024 should economics remain viable, market sources said over March 21-22. This comes as China’s Sinochem was heard to have bought an Aframax cargo of high TAN, heavy sour Access Western Blend, from Canada’s Suncor Energy at the equivalent discount of $5-$5.50/b to ICE August Brent futures on a delivered basis, market sources said. The cargo would be one of the first ...

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Oil steady after slipping on Gaza ceasefire talks

Oil prices stabilized on Friday as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza weakened crude benchmarks, while steadying U.S. interest rates and the war in Europe cushioned the fall. Brent futures eased 20 cents to $85.58 a barrel by 10:48 a.m. EST (1448 GMT), while U.S. crude fell 24 cents to $80.83 per barrel. Both benchmarks were largely unchanged on the week. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed talks in Qatar could reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Blinken met Arab foreign ...

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