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Daily Currencies Ratings

Dollar set for weekly rise after shift in global rate outlook

The dollar headed for a second week of gains on Friday, with a slight rate hike in Japan unable to halt its rise and a surprise cut in Switzerland highlighting the gap in interest rate policy between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The week marked a shift in global monetary policy as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and central banks in developing countries cut rates or indicated their intention to do so, with June the likely moment for the European Central Bank to move. The dollar rose against ...

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FX Daily: Strong dollar at the end of central bank week

USD: End-of-week rally looks overdone The dollar has found good support since yesterday afternoon when some US data prompted a USD/risk-off rally. The Leading Index printed a positive month-on-month number for the first time in two years, likely thanks to the strong equity performance and a weather-related rebound in the average work week. Existing home sales also surprised on the upside, rising from 4m to 4.4m. Consensus was understandably for a decline given mortgage applications have been falling. S&P PMIs were also published yesterday and showed good resilience in manufacturing, ...

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What a shift in Fed Dots would mean for G10 FX

Much focus on the Fed Dot plots tonight Tonight sees the results of the March FOMC meeting, where we will see a new statement, a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Fed Chair Jay Powell hold a press conference. Perhaps of most interest to the market is the SEP release and, in particular, the median Dot Plot – or the median forecast of Fed members – for rate cuts this year. The last SEP release in December showed the Fed expecting to cut rates three times this year or ...

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Dollar set for weekly rise after sea-change in global rate outlook

The U.S. dollar was set for a second week of broad gains on Friday, with even a rate hike in Japan unable to halt its march, and a surprise cut in Switzerland highlighting the gap between the Federal Reserve and global peers in interest rate settings. This week has marked a shift in the direction of global monetary policy, after a number of major central banks either made changes to their interest rates, or signalled that they intended to do so before too long. The dollar was on course for ...

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AFRICA-FX- Kenya’s shilling to hold steady, Nigerian naira to firm

Kenya’s shilling is expected to hold steady against the U.S. dollar in the next week to Thursday, while Nigeria’s naira will strengthen, traders said. GHANA Ghana’s cedi is expected to weaken further in the coming week due to persistent dollar demand from local corporates, mainly in the manufacturing and energy sectors, traders said. Refinitiv Eikon data showed the cedi trading at 12.9950 to the dollar on Thursday, compared to 12.8800 at last Thursday’s close. “Cedi, this week, has been under a lot of pressure amid limited dollar supply,” said Chris ...

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FX Daily: Fed fires up the soft landing story

USD: Fed laser-focused on rate cuts The dollar has dropped and risk assets have continued to rally after last night’s FOMC meeting revealed a Fed committed to rate cuts. We discuss the meeting in detail here. Our reading of dollar price action yesterday was a market positioned for just two Fed cuts in 2024. Hence the reiteration of three cuts saw the dollar slightly lower even though growth, inflation and back-year Fed Dot Plots were revised slightly higher. The dollar tried to recover, but then a dovish press conference dominated. ...

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The Swiss franc falls sharply after surprise rate cut, BoE’s meeting next

The Swiss franc fell sharply against the dollar on Thursday and hit its weakest since last July against the euro, after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut interest rates, while the pound edged lower ahead of a Bank of England (BoE) meeting. The euro climbed against the Swiss franc to 0.978, the most since July 2023. It was last up 0.7% to 0.975. Against the dollar, the Swiss franc fell 0.9% to 0.8948, after briefly hitting its lowest since November. The SNB cut its main interest rate by 25 ...

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Yen close to intervention levels, dollar gains before Fed

The yen hit a fresh multi-month low versus the dollar on Wednesday hours before the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day policy meeting after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) the day before raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Analysts said the yield differential between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bonds remains wide and will keep pressure on the yen as it nears a multi-decade low of 151.94 hit in October 2022. The dollar rose to 151.92 last November. But the major central banks are largely moving in ...

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FX Daily: Dots in focus

USD: Does the Fed continue to expect three cuts this year? It is FOMC day and the focus tonight will be on the Federal Reserve’s statement, the economic projections and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. As James Knightley discusses in our Fed preview, it would only take two FOMC members shifting their expectations for the Fed dot plots to show two instead of three rate cuts this year. Markets currently price only 70bp of Fed rate cuts this year, and thus a shift to just two expected cuts would ...

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Yen falls close to intervention levels, dollar edges up before Fed

The U.S. dollar edged up while the yen remained around its multi-month low on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Analysts said the yield differential between U.S. Treasuries and Japan’s government bonds, which remains stark, will keep leading the yen after flagging that the Japanese currency had already given up the pre-BOJ policy meeting rise. A potentially hawkish Fed Open Market Committee poses further downside risks to the Japanese currency, which ...

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Yen falls in defiance of historic BOJ shift; dollar firm

The yen tumbled on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan’s momentous, but widely anticipated, decision to end its negative interest rate policy, while the dollar strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest outlook for rates. In a historic shift from decades of massive monetary stimulus, the Japanese central bank ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of unorthodox economic policy after a two-day meeting of policymakers. As most investors had already priced in a change, the yen dropped by as much as 1% and weakened past 150 ...

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Funds maintain large short yen position ahead of BOJ decision: McGeever

Hedge funds have cut back their huge bet against the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Tuesday, but not by much, suggesting they don’t believe a landmark interest rate hike would do much to improve the currency’s immediate fortunes. The BOJ is expected to deliver its first rate hike in 17 years on Tuesday, bringing the curtain down on eight years of negative interest rate policy (NIRP), and the latest move to end decades of deflation-fighting, accommodative policy. As historic as that would be, however, it ...

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BoJ lift-off underwhelms the yen

USD: Choppy into tomorrow’s FOMC meeting The dollar has shown a little strength over the last 24 hours, reconnecting with the higher short-term interest rate story. We notice as well the turnaround in some of investors’ favourite FX trades (e.g., long Mexican peso), which may be profit-taking ahead of tomorrow night’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s Banxico meeting, where there is a high chance of the first Banxico cut. The major story this morning, however, is the Bank of Japan ending its eclectic monetary policy mix. Gone are the negative interest ...

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Yen falls, defying historic BOJ shift; Aussie tumbles

Japan’s yen currency fell sharply on Tuesday after the central bank ended its negative interest rate policy in a monumental but highly anticipated decision, while the Australian dollar also slid after domestic rates were kept steady. In a historic shift from decades of massive monetary stimulus, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of unorthodox policy at the conclusion of a two-day monetary policy meeting. Still, the yen tumbled 0.8% and weakened past the level of 150 to the dollar after the ...

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Dollar dips, yen steady as BOJ policy shift beckons

The dollar was little changed on Monday ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to end negative interest rates and the market waiting for the Federal Reserve’s latest projections for rate cuts. In addition to Japan and the United States, central banks in Britain, Australia, Norway, Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Brazil and Indonesia are all due to meet this week. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other major currencies, fell 0.029% at 103.430. It has risen ...

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