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Second quarter trade data signals long-term changes in world trade patterns |
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Wednesday, 05 August 2009 |
 Growing consumer demand within China coupled with a worldwide decline in the West’s ability to consume Chinese-made goods, may herald long-term changes in the pattern of world trade. This is the prediction from MDS Transmodal, the specialist transport and trade consultancy, after analysing for The Shippers’ Voice (www.shippersvoice.com), the Chinese trade data for the second quarter 2009 as one of the inputs to its World Cargo Database. “The impact on the import/export balance of container traffic is dramatic,” says Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal. “In Q2 2008 there were only 56 tonnes of Chinese
imports for every 100 tonnes exported. One year later, that figure has
grown to 80 tonnes. If that trend continues, container lines will have
to seriously address their strategies.”
He says that Chinese exports drive the overall demand for global
shipping capacity. “Here the picture is bleak. A year on year fall of
23% for Q1 2009 has been followed by a 22% decline in Q2 2009. The best
that can be said is the decline has been arrested. Q2 2009 results are
24% lower than in Q3 2008, the peak quarter of all time.”
The consultancy has also examined the destination of Chinese exports
and concluded that the decline in the ability of the West to consume
Chinese goods is widespread. Ranking destination countries by their
container tonnages received in 2008, growth cannot be found for Q2 2009
until China’s 22nd ranked export destination is reached (Saudi Arabia).
The 2nd quarter Chinese trade data, coupled with the announcement that
US GDP continued to fall over the same quarter leads MDS Transmodal to
one conclusion.
“Our analysis of the trade data provides tangible evidence of a
restructuring of the economies of the Far East and the Western world,”
says Mr Garratt. “China, and probably the rest of the Far East except
Japan, is sucking in the exports it needs to support its domestic
economy that continues to expand – without needing to export in the
same quantities it used to.”
MDS Transmodal also analyses trade data by commodity and can produce
statistics for 3000 different commodities traded between virtually any
two countries, by quarter, since 1996. It is one of the partners which
founded www.shippersvoice.com, a site offering information, opinion
and analysis for shippers (importers, exporters, manufacturers and
producers) and anyone else involved in international trade.
Source: Shipper’s Voice
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