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Alacero points to shrinking steel sector outlook, driven by global inflation and local monetary policy

Data from Alacero, the Latin American Steel Association, shows that the growth outlook for the sector in Latin America for late 2022 and early 2023 is moderate, given the context of global inflation and contractionary monetary policy, with banks in Latin America and the United States tightening their monetary policies. “The forecast is driven by lower external demand, weakened by high interest rates and falling purchasing power. The world is going through an unprecedented inflationary process, widely distributed across countries,” analyzes Alejandro Wagner, executive director of the association that generates industry data in the region and acts as the voice of the industry.

Also according to data from Alacero, the slowdown will spread throughout Latin America, adding the external challenges of the global situation, such as the energy crisis in Europe and the war in Ukraine, to the local challenges, such as inflation. The growth forecast for 2023 is low, even higher than expected in China and the US, the region’s main trading partners.

Of the steel-demanding sectors in Latin America, construction fell by 1.8% from June to August 2022, while automotive rose by 29.3% from July to September 2022, mechanical machinery grew by 0.8% from June to August 2022 and domestic use fell by 13.7% in the same period. As for the inputs demanded in steel production, oil fell by 0.9%, gas increased by 1% and energy by 0.4%, all data from June to August 2022.

As for the sector’s performance between January and August 2022, cumulative steel exports recorded an increase of 47.3%, totalling 7,740.7 thousand tonnes. In this way, exports increased by 10.7% in August compared to the previous month. Imports, meanwhile, suffered a reduction of 12.5% in the accumulated 8 months of 2022, compared to the same period of 2021, totalling 16,871.1 thousand tonnes. In August, the figure was 25.4% higher than in July.

Production remains relatively stable, boosted by the significant volume of exports. The accumulation of the first 9 months of the year registered an important reduction of 4.1% in crude steel production, compared to the same period of the previous year, registering 46,862.5 thousand tonnes. Finished steel presented a reduction of 3.7% in the same period, with 41,033.8 thousand tonnes.
Source: Alacero

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