Attacks threaten shipping’s destabilisation
A surge in attacks on merchant vessels is escalating tensions and posing a grave threat to global trade and maritime security, according to a report by Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. The study underscores a disturbing trend of state-linked aggression targeting commercial shipping, with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen emerging as a particularly dangerous and sophisticated maritime adversary.
Since November 2023, the Houthis have waged a relentless campaign against vessels in the Red Sea, employing a sophisticated arsenal of drones, missiles, and uncrewed boats. This unprecedented level of aggression has transformed a vital global trade artery into a perilous gauntlet, forcing shipping companies to make difficult and costly decisions. The diversion of ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles to their journeys, has disrupted supply chains, inflated transportation costs, and ultimately impacted consumers worldwide.
“For the global shipping industry (except vessels linked to Russia and China, which the Houthis exempt from their attacks), this means that a neutral sector can be severely harmed and disrupted, at great expense to the shipping industry.
The international community has responded with a mix of military and diplomatic efforts to counter these attacks. Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational naval task force, has been deployed to protect merchant vessels and deter further aggression. However, “the Houthis’ different cost-benefit calculus means retaliating against their strikes has little effect on their motivation”, said Braw.
By targeting commercial shipping, these actors are not only seeking to inflict economic damage but also to undermine the freedom of navigation, a cornerstone of global trade.
Seafarer impact
The human toll of these attacks is equally alarming. Seafarers, already facing perilous working conditions, now find themselves in the crosshairs of geopolitical conflict. The Philippines, a major source of maritime labour, has imposed restrictions on its seafarers working in the region, exacerbating the industry’s already acute workforce shortage. This has further compounded the challenges faced by shipping companies and contributed to rising costs.
“So far, the shipping industry has managed to recruit seafarers—these days, predominantly from India, the Philippines, and Indonesia,” Braw noted. “If attacks continue, shipping’s already precarious recruitment situation will worsen significantly.”
Beyond the Red Sea, the vulnerability of other critical shipping lanes is evident. The Black Sea, impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Taiwan Strait, under constant pressure from China, face similar threats. These incidents underscore the interconnectedness of global trade and the potential for regional conflicts to cascade into broader maritime instability.
The attacks on merchant vessels represent a fundamental challenge to the rules-based international order. By targeting commercial shipping, these actors are not only seeking to inflict economic damage but also to undermine the freedom of navigation, a cornerstone of global trade. “The Houthis’ priority is not even to sink vessels, which is what a traditional adversary attacking vessels would intend. Instead, their top priority has turned out to be to gain global attention and to cause fear among shipping companies, their insurers, and their customers, and thus to gain a global platform,” said Braw. If left unchecked, this trend could lead to a proliferation of similar attacks, creating a climate of fear and uncertainty that would stifle economic growth and exacerbate geopolitical tensions.
Avoiding risky waters is a feasible strategy in the short term, but it doesn’t solve the problem of the Houthis and other state-linked outfits targeting shipping
Call to action
To address this growing crisis, a comprehensive and co-ordinated international response is necessary. This should include:
· Enhanced military co-operation: Expanding the capabilities of naval forces to counter maritime threats, including the development and deployment of advanced defensive systems, such as directed energy weapons and autonomous drone swarms.
· Diplomatic engagement: Pursuing robust diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and address the root causes of the conflict, including supporting UN-led peace initiatives and imposing targeted sanctions on those responsible for the attacks.
· Industry resilience: Strengthening the shipping industry through measures such as insurance schemes, risk assessments, crew training, and the development of innovative technologies to enhance vessel protection.
· International law enforcement: Enhancing co-operation among maritime law enforcement agencies to disrupt illicit activities, share intelligence, and prosecute perpetrators of maritime crimes.
· Information sharing: Establishing a global maritime information sharing platform to facilitate the exchange of threat assessments, incident reports, and best practices among industry stakeholders and governments.
The implications of these attacks for global supply chains, food security, and economic stability are profound. The international community must unite to protect vital maritime trade routes, safeguard the livelihoods of seafarers, and uphold the principles of international law.
“Avoiding risky waters is a feasible strategy in the short term, but it doesn’t solve the problem of the Houthis and other state-linked outfits targeting shipping,” Braw said. “The Houthis’ campaign against shipping is, in fact, brilliantly executed grey zone aggression (sometimes referred to as hybrid aggression). It causes real harm to the entities, people, and countries targeted, but—because it’s not a military aggression by a government—the targeted countries struggle to respond. The peril posed by the Houthis is not just that shipping in the Red Sea will continue to be dangerous.
“Their campaign also sends the message that the global maritime order is crumbling and those violating its rules can do so with impunity.”
Source: By Carly Fields, Baltic Exchange