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Iraq acknowledges OPEC+ overproduction, vows compensation and quota adherence

Iraq on July 13 acknowledged it produced 184,000 b/d over its OPEC+ quota in June, based on secondary sources estimates, and pledged to compensate for its excess output by a September 2025 deadline under the latest OPEC+ agreement by making additional cuts of equivalent volume. OPEC’s second largest oil producer has habitually pumped more crude than allowed for under its OPEC+ quota, drawing the ire of other members, but said in a statement that it will adhere to the 4 million b/d limit for the coming months. Iraq has not ...

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China’s thermal power generation falls on year for second straight month

China’s thermal power generation fell on the year for a second straight month in June as hydropower generation surged, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Thermal electricity, generated mostly by coal-fired capacity, fell 7.4% in June after declining by 4.3% in May. However, thermal output still rose 1.7% over the first six months as a whole. Hydropower volumes rose 44.5% in June and 21.4% over the first six months. The trend could put China on track for a year-on-year decline in coal use for 2024 as a whole, ...

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FX Daily: Inflation divergence widens in G10

USD: Trump trade versus Fed trade The June US retail sales report exceeded expectations yesterday, with headline sales remaining flat on the month against a consensus 0.3% MoM drop. While motor vehicle sales fell 2% MoM and gasoline station sales dropped 3% due to lower prices, other less volatile areas performed well. Despite the positive data, real retail sales are still around 4 percentage points below their 2021 peak. Slower consumer spending growth, moderating inflation, and rising unemployment rates may impact the sector going forward, and we still expect this ...

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Yen jumps on suspected intervention, sterling hits one-year high

The yen rose sharply on Wednesday in what traders suspected was likely the result of yet another intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the battered currency from multi-decade lows. The dollar was last 1.2% lower against the yen at 156.48, extending its sudden fall against the Japanese currency shortly after the London trading session began. The dollar’s decline against the yen happened at a more measured pace than in previous bouts of intervention, which led traders to initially attribute the move to the unwinding of carry trades. However, the ...

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US retailers receive a summer boost

Retailers beat expectations in June The June US retail sales report is certainly stronger than expected although headline sales on the month were still only flat on the month. The consensus was for a 0.3% month-on-month drop and the May figure was revised up two tenths of a percentage point to 0.3% MoM growth. The details show motor vehicle sales fell 2% MoM, which was broadly in line with the auto volume sales, which we already knew. Gasoline station sales fell 3% MoM due primarily to lower prices while sporting ...

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Xi tackles slow growth as economy ‘hits the brakes’

China’s economy stumbled in the second quarter, official data shows, just as the country’s top leaders gathered for a key meeting to address its sluggish growth. It grew 4.7% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations after a stronger start in the first three months of 2024. The government’s annual growth target is around 5%. “China’s economy hit the brakes in the June quarter,” said Heron Lim at Moody’s Analytics, adding that analysts are hoping for solutions from the meeting under way in Beijing, also called the ...

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July’s ECB cheat sheet: The less I know the better

As discussed in our full European Central Bank preview, we think the Governing Council will avoid disrupting markets with any new forward guidance at its 18 July meeting. There is an inevitable spillover effect from the recent dovish repricing in Federal Reserve expectations and the turmoil in French bond markets; incidentally, the recovery in growth expectations is losing steam. At the same time, inflation has failed to ease convincingly, and there are lingering concerns about wage growth stickiness. Off-meeting ECB communication has indicated that rates will most likely be kept ...

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Just hold on: Five questions for the ECB

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday to take stock of how the euro zone economy is faring a month after it cut interestrates for the first time five years. Inflation has dropped since the ECB last met but has failed to budge in the dominant services sector. Some policymakers felt cornered into June’s rate cut and are in no hurry to flag what’s next. “They don’t want to give away anything,” said Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis. Here are five key questions for markets: 1/ ...

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Euro zone households seek loans again after two years – ECB

Euro zone households are applying for loans in growing numbers for the first time in two years as they grow more optimistic about the economy and interest rates fall, a European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday. The ECB began cutting interest rates in June but borrowing costs on financial markets started falling well before then, slowly making credit more attractive. A net 16% of lenders polled in the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) reported a surgein demand for loans from households in the three months to June, the first ...

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Structure more important than growth rate of trade

The national foreign trade data for the first half of the year, released on Friday, show the total value of China’s import and export of goods was 21.17 trillion yuan ($2.91 trillion), an increase of 6.1 percent year-on-year, continuing and consolidating the previous upward trend. For the first time ever, China’s half-year import and export scale exceeded 21 trillion yuan, setting a new record. In terms of growth rate, the second-quarter imports and exports grew by 7.4 percent year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 and 5.7 percentage points from the first ...

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Greece restricts outdoor work as temperatures soar again

Greece has ordered some businesses not to let their employees perform heavy outdoor duties during afternoon hours this week as the country sizzles in yet another heat wave. Builders, food delivery riders, couriers and shipwrights are among those having to pause work from midday till 5 pm from Tuesday till Friday as the mercury is expected to reach 42-43 Celsius in parts ofGreece, the labour ministry said. Several regions of the world, from the United States to India, have similarly been suffering this summer from extreme heat that has triggered ...

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Japan keeps up yen warnings; 6 trillion yen, 2-day intervention suspected

Japan stands ready to take all possible measures to counter excessively volatile currency moves, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Tuesday, keeping markets on alert over the chance of renewed intervention to prop up the yen. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) intervening on Friday last week. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. “It is important for currency rates to move stably ...

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Prices trade in a narrow range amid strong inventories

Dutch and British gas prices were slightly up on Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range amid strong inventories and as the market is cautiously monitoring LNG supply, after Freeport LNG said will restart one train this week. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was up 0.55 euros at 32.10 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $10.25/mmbtu, by 0839 GMT, LSEG data showed. The Dutch day-ahead contract In the British market, the front-month contract TRGBNPMc1 was up 2.15 pence at 73.85 pence per therm. Freeport LNG ...

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Ukraine’s late crops harvest may fall by 20-30% in most areas due to drought, report says

Ukraine’s harvest of late crops may decline by 20-30% in central, southern and eastern regions due to extreme heat, state weather forecasters said on Tuesday. “Starting from the end of June, the development, intensification and spread of air drought began in many parts of Ukraine, which later combined with soil drought and as of 15 July 2024 covered a significant part of the area with late crops,” forecasters said in a report. They said 30% to 50% of the overall area under late crops could be affected by drought. Forecasters ...

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Aluminium hits three-month low on heavy supply, copper slips

Aluminium prices dropped to the lowest in over three months on Tuesday on worries about oversupply, while copper also slumped in the wake of weak economic data from top metals consumer China. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMAL3 fell 0.7% to $2,443.50 per metric ton by 0945 GMT, the lowest since April 11. LME aluminium has shed 13% since hitting a near two-year peak on May 30. The world’s biggest aluminium producer China churned out the highest output in nearly a decade in June, helped by the ...

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