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China plans to test run decarbonization technologies at coal-fired power plants, including co-firing with ammonia and biomass, and carbon capture and storage, to reduce their carbon intensity, the top economic planner National Development and Reform Commission or NDRC said in a statement July 15, the first day of China’s 20th Third Plenum. The Third Plenum is one of China’s most important political gatherings focused on economic reforms and is being closely watched by financial markets this year for major announcements on policy, including the role of clean technology the country’s ...

Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay two global producers a premium of $172 per metric ton over the benchmark price for shipments in July to September, up 16%-19% from the previous quarter, four sources involved in the pricing talks said. The figure is higher than the $145-$148 per ton paid in the April-June quarter but lower than the initial offers of $175-$190 per ton made by producers. Japan is a major Asian importer of the light metal and the premiums PREM-ALUM-JP for primary metal shipments it agrees to ...

The likely return of the climate phenomenon La Nina, and the associated shift in global weather patterns and temperature extremes, is set to result in a fresh wave of disruption and volatility across key global commodity markets. Following on from the recent El Nino event — which lasted from the second half of 2023 through to the beginning of 2024 and was one of the five strongest on record — the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center estimates that there is currently a 70% likelihood of La ...

London copper was stuck in a tight range on Wednesday as supply concerns countered weak demand from top consumer China and pressure from a firmer dollar. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was little changed at $9,667.50 per metric ton, as of 0554 GMT, after a 1.5% drop on Tuesday. The most-traded August copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 slid 1% to 78,560 yuan a ton. Two Chinese copper smelters have outlined plans to cut output next year as a result of raw materials supply shortages, ...

Oil prices were steady on Wednesday, a day after benchmark Brent hit a one-month low, as a decline in U.S. oil stockpiles helped offset signs of weakening demand in China. Brent crude oil futures were up just 1 cent, or 0.01%, to $83.74 a barrel by 1013 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 10 cents, or 0.12%, at $80.86. “China’s weaker economic performance and rising expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut over the coming months have counterbalanced each other,” independent oil analyst Gaurav Sharma said. In ...

LNG and natural gas prices are expected to weaken as the EU’s gas storage sits reach tank top during the third quarter, sources said. This downward trend is expected to be limited, however, supported by the need to attract a sustainable amount of imports in a tight LNG market. According to historical data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, after continuously falling from the highs of January 2023, the Dutch TTF front-month contract began to trend higher in June of the same year, albeit within volatile ranges. After trending higher, the ...

Iraq on July 13 acknowledged it produced 184,000 b/d over its OPEC+ quota in June, based on secondary sources estimates, and pledged to compensate for its excess output by a September 2025 deadline under the latest OPEC+ agreement by making additional cuts of equivalent volume. OPEC’s second largest oil producer has habitually pumped more crude than allowed for under its OPEC+ quota, drawing the ire of other members, but said in a statement that it will adhere to the 4 million b/d limit for the coming months. Iraq has not ...

China’s thermal power generation fell on the year for a second straight month in June as hydropower generation surged, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Thermal electricity, generated mostly by coal-fired capacity, fell 7.4% in June after declining by 4.3% in May. However, thermal output still rose 1.7% over the first six months as a whole. Hydropower volumes rose 44.5% in June and 21.4% over the first six months. The trend could put China on track for a year-on-year decline in coal use for 2024 as a whole, ...

USD: Trump trade versus Fed trade The June US retail sales report exceeded expectations yesterday, with headline sales remaining flat on the month against a consensus 0.3% MoM drop. While motor vehicle sales fell 2% MoM and gasoline station sales dropped 3% due to lower prices, other less volatile areas performed well. Despite the positive data, real retail sales are still around 4 percentage points below their 2021 peak. Slower consumer spending growth, moderating inflation, and rising unemployment rates may impact the sector going forward, and we still expect this ...

The yen rose sharply on Wednesday in what traders suspected was likely the result of yet another intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the battered currency from multi-decade lows. The dollar was last 1.2% lower against the yen at 156.48, extending its sudden fall against the Japanese currency shortly after the London trading session began. The dollar’s decline against the yen happened at a more measured pace than in previous bouts of intervention, which led traders to initially attribute the move to the unwinding of carry trades. However, the ...

Retailers beat expectations in June The June US retail sales report is certainly stronger than expected although headline sales on the month were still only flat on the month. The consensus was for a 0.3% month-on-month drop and the May figure was revised up two tenths of a percentage point to 0.3% MoM growth. The details show motor vehicle sales fell 2% MoM, which was broadly in line with the auto volume sales, which we already knew. Gasoline station sales fell 3% MoM due primarily to lower prices while sporting ...

China’s economy stumbled in the second quarter, official data shows, just as the country’s top leaders gathered for a key meeting to address its sluggish growth. It grew 4.7% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations after a stronger start in the first three months of 2024. The government’s annual growth target is around 5%. “China’s economy hit the brakes in the June quarter,” said Heron Lim at Moody’s Analytics, adding that analysts are hoping for solutions from the meeting under way in Beijing, also called the ...

As discussed in our full European Central Bank preview, we think the Governing Council will avoid disrupting markets with any new forward guidance at its 18 July meeting. There is an inevitable spillover effect from the recent dovish repricing in Federal Reserve expectations and the turmoil in French bond markets; incidentally, the recovery in growth expectations is losing steam. At the same time, inflation has failed to ease convincingly, and there are lingering concerns about wage growth stickiness. Off-meeting ECB communication has indicated that rates will most likely be kept ...

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday to take stock of how the euro zone economy is faring a month after it cut interestrates for the first time five years. Inflation has dropped since the ECB last met but has failed to budge in the dominant services sector. Some policymakers felt cornered into June’s rate cut and are in no hurry to flag what’s next. “They don’t want to give away anything,” said Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis. Here are five key questions for markets: 1/ ...

Euro zone households are applying for loans in growing numbers for the first time in two years as they grow more optimistic about the economy and interest rates fall, a European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday. The ECB began cutting interest rates in June but borrowing costs on financial markets started falling well before then, slowly making credit more attractive. A net 16% of lenders polled in the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) reported a surgein demand for loans from households in the three months to June, the first ...