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USD: Some caveats to the bearish narrative On Friday, we published FX Talking: The dollar’s break point, where we discuss our updated views on G10 and EM currencies and present our latest forecasts. The radical shift in the FX positioning picture since the US CPI and PPI releases last week now forces a reassessment of the dollar outlook. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data on speculative positioning offers little help in understanding how much dollar positioning has changed since the latest reported positions were as of Tuesday, before the ...

There was “no discussion” about exchange rates at a meeting of Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers and central bank chiefs, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Sunday, according to Kyodo News. Suzuki was speaking after a meeting in India of the G7 – the U.S., Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. The yen weakened as far as 145 per dollar at the end of last month, the level that last fall spurred the finance ministry to intervene in the market to support the currency. However the yen ...

Members of a major trans-Pacific trade pact said on Sunday they were gathering information on China, Taiwan and other countries interested in joining the agreement to see whether they were able to meet the pact’s “high standards”. The comments followed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) meeting in Auckland where Britain formally signed the treaty to become a member and a decision to review and update the agreement was also made. Along with China and Taiwan, Ukraine, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Ecuador have also applied to join ...

Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has formally signed the treaty to accede to CPTPP trade group in New Zealand this morning [Sunday], kickstarting the UK’s membership of a modern and ambitious trade deal spanning 12 economies across Asia, the Pacific, and now Europe. The Secretary of State is in Auckland to put pen to paper on this mega deal, alongside New Zealand Trade Minister Damien O’Connor, Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng, Japanese Minister for Economic Revitalisation Goto Shigeyuki and Australian Deputy Trade Minister Tim Ayres. The signature is the ...

Six months on, the US economy has proven surprisingly resilient to recession, headline inflation has fallen steadily while core inflation has been slower to decline, and China’s post-COVID recovery has disappointed. “Most expectations, including our own, were for broad stock market indexes to fall this year as earnings growth decelerated. Yet the S&P 500 has enjoyed the second-best first half in the last 20 years, powered by a robust US economy, a little bit of inflation-driven nominal earnings growth, and a lot of optimism about a handful of companies associated ...

China-Australia trade grew significantly during the first half, indicating a steady improvement in economic relations, while efforts to address trade matters, including tariffs on barley, remain in progress. Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday showed that total bilateral trade hit 800 billion yuan ($111.7 billion), up 16.4 percent year-on-year between January and June, with an upbeat trend for major products such as iron ore and coal. Full-year imports of Australian coal are expected to reach 30 to 40 million tons, a new high since ...

China’s new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year, data showed on Saturday, increasing pressure on policymakers for more stimulus as economic recovery falters. The flat result from a month earlier, with rises slowing nationwide, was below May’s 0.1% gain, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1% increase in May. The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world’s second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers ...

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed optimism on Saturday about progress on a long-awaited overhaul of global corporate taxation at a meeting of Group of 20 (G20) nations in India. “There’s been progress made over the years and we want to advance that progress further,” Chalmers told ABC television, referring to the meeting Monday and Tuesday of G20 finance ministers and central bankers. More than 140 countries were supposed to start implementing next year a 2021 deal overhauling decades-old rules on how governments tax multinational corporations. The rules are widely considered ...

Today, Monday, July 17 2023, the Baltic Dry Index  decreased by 17 points, reaching 1073 points.

The SSY Atlantic Capesize Index went up 412 points in the past week to 7,789. SSY’s assessed fronthaul rate increased $4,000/day to $34,150/day,

Global shares and commodities slipped on Monday after data showed the Chinese economy is growing a lot more slowly than expected, while the dollar eased as traders ramped up their bets for an imminent end to U.S. rate rises. China reported economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecasted, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%, well below expectations for a reading of 7.3%. Last week brought a broad sweep out of the dollar and into risk assets like equities and emerging market ...

A bruised dollar took respite on Monday after suffering its worst weekly drop of the year, as traders waited on economic data and policy decisions before selling it down any further. The euro, which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1223. The yen, also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.56 per dollar. Chinese growth data landed a little above low expectations on Monday, but without sparking much currency market response as traders had already priced in a sluggish quarter and are ...

Like many others we have been looking for a weaker dollar in the second half of this year but have been uncertain of timing. There is now a strong case that the softer US June CPI numbers have fired the starting pistol on the cyclical dollar decline. Importantly, we look for the June CPI data to presage a series of softer price data releases this year. The Fed should welcome this news. Strong signs of US disinflation and bullish steepening of the US yield curve should be a EUR/USD positive. ...

An accelerating dollar slide could be a U.S. gift to its allies by helping them catch up with its impressive disinflation. Seeing headline U.S. inflation tick below 3% for the first time in more than two years in June electrified world markets this week by encouraging a belief the Federal Reserve can finally end its 15-month credit tightening this month. Bond yields recoiled and stock markets surged to 2023 highs. But it was the dollar exchange rate that took the heat of ‘peak Fed’ excitement and the greenback’s DXY index ...

China’s economy is slowing due to weaker private investment, slowing exports and reduced domestic demand after a strong performance in the first quarter as the economy reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns, the International Monetary Fund said. “So the overall picture for growth in China is one of a slowing economy and that is consistent with the forecast that we had in April,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing, adding that the Fund was observing “subdued” inflation in China. Kozack said the IMF would revise its China growth forecast ...