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Very solid reported figures, but weakish future Stolt-Nielsen posted its 4Q (September-November) report last week with the results beating our and the consensus expectations, but with a cautious view ahead. Daily average TCE earnings in 1Q25 are guided to fall 7.5%-10%, partially offset by increasing fleet and we estimate a midpoint of a drop. The situation in the Red Sea also seems to be stabilizing, which would result in somewhat lower rates, thus, with some negative adjustments to our estimates we lower the Target Price for the stock to NOK ...

The Hambantota International Port (HIP) marked a milestone last month, by integrating High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) into its range of bunkering services. The port now offers a complete suite of marine fuels, including Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO/MDO). This development strengthens Sri Lanka’s position in the global maritime landscape, allowing HIP to cater to a broader range of vessels navigating one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. CEO, Hambantota International Port Group (HIPG), Wilson Qu, “We are pleased to announce the full operational ...

US ferrous scrap imports in 2024 dropped 16% from the previous year to the lowest level since 2019 amid a decline in shipments from Canada, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Atlas Feb. 13. The US imported 2.94 million mt of ferrous scrap in 2024, down from 3.51 million mt in 2023. Imports from Canada fell 15% year on year to 2.18 million mt in 2024, but were partially offset by a 65% year on year increase in ferrous scrap imports from Mexico to 353,412 mt. US ferrous ...

The Canadian Western Red Spring wheat market continues to face low prices amid a slowdown in activity from ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and contract changes. Since President Trump’s last-minute announcement of a pause on tariffs on Jan. 31, market participants have adopted a cautious approach, waiting to for clearer information on tariff outcomes and prices fell in response Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed CWRS prices leading up to the announcement at $275.21 on Jan. 30 and $273.38 on Jan. 31 then $267.68 on Feb. 3. Compounding this ...

Volumes traded for the scrap futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange, which settle basis the Platts assessment from S&P Global Commodity Insights, rose week over week during the seven days to Feb. 13. Weekly LME scrap futures trading volumes in the week to Feb. 13 increased to 109,140 mt, up from 88,530 mt in the week starting Feb. 6. Platts assessed spot prices for physical imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) at $359.50/mt CFR Feb. 13, increasing by $5.50/mt on the week, as strong US domestic settlements ...

Expectations that U.S. tariffs will be imposed on copper has spurred a flow of material to the United States, tightening supplies on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and spurring a sharp move in a key spread, data showed. The spread between the cash LME copper contract and benchmark three-month futures (CMCU0-3) spiked to a premium for the first time in 19 months on Friday. The copper premium, also known as a backwardation, surged to $71 a metric ton, the highest premium since October 2022, compared to a discount of $119 ...

The Trump administration’s shift to commodity-based tariffs highlights the potential direct impact on the asset class. This would be a good occasion for investors to review their exposure to commodities in a portfolio context, including the sub-asset class level. We would recommend being neutral on broad commodities, while going overweight on precious metals. Additionally, we are positive on gold and silver, and would sell downside risks on oil. The Trump administration’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum introduces a new perspective on the threat of tariffs. The shift from ...

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday on establishing a new council to boost U.S. production and export of fossil fuels. Tasked with driving up U.S. domestic oil and gas production, partly for export, the National Energy Dominance Council will be chaired by Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. As Trump was signing the executive order inside the Oval Office, Burgum said he signed a license earlier in the day, which would allow the Commonwealth LNG in the U.S. state of Louisiana to export liquified natural gas (LNG), ...

Global equity funds attracted significant inflows in the week ending February 12, after a Bank of England rate cut drove a rally in European shares, although caution over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies limited investor activity. LSEG Lipper data showed investors bought global equity funds worth a net $5.66 billion during the week, reversing their $2.47 billion in net sales the prior week. The pan-European STOXX 600 index SXXP hit new records on five consecutive days this week, driven by strong earnings from companies such as drugmaker AstraZeneca AZN, ...

Australia: Market looks for 25bp rate cut from RBA The market is pricing in the first 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week on 18 February. While this is in line with our view and we place a 60% probability on it, we think the decision to cut or pause will be a close one – and it’s therefore not a done deal. Key to our thinking is that the wage pressures have eased more than expected and household consumption growth has been weaker than ...

Retail sales dragged down by weather and LA fires We thought a soft January retail sales report was likely given the cold weather and the Los Angeles fires, but it is worse than even our pessimistic forecasts. Headline sales were down 0.9% month-on-month in nominal terms (consensus -0.2%) while the control group that excludes the volatile autos, food service, building materials and gasoline and supposedly better tracks broader consumer trends fell 0.8% (consensus +0.3%). As these are nominal value changes and we know prices rose 0.5% MoM according to the ...

If you’d asked me on the eve of Donald Trump’s re-election in November where European stock markets would be right now, I, for one, wouldn’t have guessed they’d be surging. And yet, here we are. Germany’s DAX 40 is up a whopping 17% since election day. Maybe I’m missing something; I’m just a simple economist, after all. But having spoken to a load of UK-based investors this week, there’s still not a lot of love in the air when it comes to the European outlook. Perhaps it’s the macro data, ...

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index, which measures shipping rates for vessels transporting dry bulk commodities, rose on Friday, supported by higher rates across all vessel segments. The index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, rose by 12 points to 792 points. However, the index fell nearly 3% for the week. The capesize index gained 5 points to 716 points, while the index was down more than 14% during the week. Average daily earnings for capesize vessels, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes such ...

The tanker market has been suppressed during the month of January, OPEC said in its latest monthly report. Dirty spot freight rates registered a slow start to the year. VLCCs showed the best performance in January, with the Middle East-to-East route up 38%, m-o-m, amid increasing activities on the longer haul routes. The Suezmax and Aframax markets fared less well, amid more muted activities. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined 11%, m-o-m, while Aframax spot rates around the Mediterranean fell 18%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, ...

By early 2025, net supply has declined significantly from the peaks seen in 2023 and early 2024, reinforcing the inverse correlation between supply levels and TD3 rates. The sharp drop in net supply has driven a notable spike in TD3 rates, validating the fundamental supply-demand pricing mechanism in the VLCC market. A major supply peak in mid-2023 (~180 vessels) led to subdued TD3 rates, but recent volatility in Baltic TD3 rates suggests a strengthening trend, particularly if crude oil demand remains resilient. With net supply tightening, demand-side factors—such as refinery ...