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Black Sea exports in April were down 35% on a halt in Ukrainian ports shipments

According to Commodities at Sea, S&P Global Market Intelligence, total seaborne agribulk shipments from the Black Sea region during April 2022 declined 35% to 4.0 million tons year on year (y/y). Shipments of wheat, corn, and barley stood at 3.0 million tons (up 44% y/y), 891,000 tons (down 76% y/y), and 65,000 tons (down 82% from 356,000 tons y/y), respectively.

In terms of export countries, seaborne agribulk shipments from Russia, Romania and Bulgaria stood at 2.0 million tons (up 54% y/y), 1.4 million tons (down 0.4%), and 540,000 tons (up 73%), respectively, in April.

Black Sea agribulk shipments declined to almost all import regions and territories in April, including North Africa, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, mainland China, Southeast Asia and West Africa. Shipments increased solely to the Mediterranean, by 15% to 1.2 million tons.

Seaborne agribulk shipments from the Black Sea region are forecast to decline 37% y/y to 11.2 million tons in the second quarter of 2022, and 20% y/y to 83.9 million tons in full 2022.

According to Mr. Pranay Shukla, associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “There could also be further significant downside risks to the Black Sea agribulk forecast for this year depending on how long the war extends and if Ukraine can manage its exports from Romania and Poland, while upside risks could arise from Russian wheat exports on expected strong domestic wheat harvest.”
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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