BRAZIL CORN WATCH: Frost likely in some parts, dryness may build in other areas

The latest weather forecast indicates that the conditions are favorable for the formation of frost in southern Brazil which is not conducive to the development of second-corn crops.

There is a forecast for frost formation in much of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo in the early hours of May 17, Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology INMET said.

Frost is likely to form in north-central Parana, Sao Paulo, south-central regions of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Goias during May 18-20, the INMET said.

The forecast comes on the back of dryness hitting the second-corn corps in the key producing regions of Brazil.

Brazil’s national agricultural agency Conab cut its forecast last week for corn production to a record 114.6 million mt in the marketing year 2021-22 (February-January) from the 115.60 million mt projected in April.

Brazil’s 2021-22 corn crop is marketed from February 2022 to January 2023.

In Mato Grosso, corn harvesting has begun in the areas where the crops were sown in December. The lack of rain causes concern in late crops, but most crops have already matured, Conab said.

In Mato Grosso do Sul corn crops in the north-central region are hit by a lack of adequate water supply, while in Goias the decrease in rainfall is likely to bring down corn crop yield, Conab said.

Safrinha corn crops will be maturing over the next few weeks, and water requirements and crop stress are likely to reduce.

“Light rain should improve moisture slightly across Minas Gerais and Bahia over the next few days, with dryness rebuilding across central and northwestern belt areas,” space technology provider Maxar said in its daily weather report on May 16.

The weather issues in Brazil are also supporting local corn prices, which have been declining over the last few weeks.

Premiums for corn exports were reported slightly weaker for FOB Santos third-quarter loadings amid a lack of demand. However, they did not fall as much in some other markets, such as Argentina. Frost concerns in producing regions in Brazil in the coming days limited declines, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in its assessment on May 16.

Corn FOB Santos for August loading was assessed at $331.87/mt on May 16, $7.68/mt higher than the previous assessment.
Source: Platts