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Brazil cuts new soybean crop estimate to 118.8 million mt

Brazil’s 2018-19 soybean crop yield will be lower than the previous season’s, national crop agency Conab said Thursday, after in December it predicted a new record production.

Conab said in a monthly report that Brazil will harvest 118.8 million mt, down from 120.06 million mt in the previous report and 119.28 million mt in 2017-18.
Harvest in some parts of the country has already started and will pick up pace later in January and in February. Soybean planting for the crop year started on September 15.

Several analysts have been cutting estimates for the new crop, which is in the early stages of harvest, because of intense drought in many regions.

“Losses are expected in the west of Parana, mainly in areas seeded earlier, where dry weather affected the pod setting stage,” said Conab.

The government agency is known for its conservative forecasts that take longer to factor in weather occurrences.

On Wednesday, AgRural, a private analyst, slashed its forecast for the 2018-19 crop to 116.9 million mt, from 121.4 million mt in a December report and from 119.3 million mt in 2017-18. It also attributed the cut to weather issues in different regions.

For corn, Conab projected the 2018-19 crop at 91.19 million mt, up from 91.10 million mt in December and 80.79 million mt in 2017-18.
Source: Platts

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