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Brazil’s Abiove sees higher soybean, soybean oil exports in 2021

Brazil’s soybean and soybean oil exports in 2021 are poised to be higher than initially expected, according to the country’s oilseeds crushers association Abiove, whose new forecasts follow a cut in the local biodiesel mandate.

For soybeans, the entity now pegs this year’s overseas shipments at a record high of 85.60 million mt, from 84.50 million mt estimated in April and 82.97 million mt in 2020. Brazil’s soy output is expected to reach record high of 137.50 million mt in 2021, above 136.30 million mt previously seen and nearly 128 million mt last year.

The country is the global top producer and exporter of the oilseed.

Regarding soybean oil, Abiove sees Brazil exporting 1 million mt in 2021. In April, the projection was 700,000 mt, while last year the country shipped 1.11 million mt. Soybean oil production was pegged at 9.46 million mt, nearly flat over estimates for last month and 2020.

Such forecasts come after the Brazilian government cut the official biodiesel mixture into diesel to 10% during the May-August period, instead of an initially set mandate of 13%. This is expected to reduce soybean oil demand by biodiesel producers, as the vegetable oil is the main raw material for the biofuel production.

According to market participants, such a scenario might lead to additional supplies of soybean oil to be exported or even to lower crushing rates, with more soybeans available for shipping as consequence.

Abiove estimates Brazil’s soybean crushing at 46.80 million mt this year, below 47 million mt pegged in April and stable year over year. Internal soybean oil consumption is poised to total 8.90 million mt, versus 9.20 million mt seen last month and 8.53 million mt in 2020.

For soybean meal, the association slightly cut the production forecast to 35.77 million mt, from 35.92 million mt in estimated April and 36.02 million mt last year, while exports estimate was kept at 17.10 million mt.
Source: Platts

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