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Brent to average $71.06/b in 2018, $67.74/b in 2019: US EIA

The US Energy Information Administration raised its WTI and Brent price forecasts for 2019 and said growing domestic production will reduce net imports to a level not seen in 60 years.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook Tuesday, EIA said US oil production averaged 10.7 million b/d in May, up 80,000 b/d from April.

It now forecasts US oil production to average 10.79 million b/d in 2018 and 11.76 million b/d in 2019, 70,000 b/d more and 100,000 b/d less, respectively, than what it had forecast last month.

EIA Tuesday forecast US oil production to exceed 12 million b/d by December 2019. Last month, it forecast US supply to cross that threshold a month earlier.

It also forecasts that US crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.5 million b/d in 2018 and to 1.6 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net oil imports since 1959.

“Net crude oil and petroleum product imports into the United States are continuing historic declines in 2018, and EIA’s outlook is that those declines will continue in 2019,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.

EIA forecasts WTI spot prices to average $64.53/b in 2018 and $61.95/b in 2019, down $1.05/b and up $1.09/b, respectively, from last month’s forecast. It forecasts Brent to average $71.06/b in 2018 and $67.74/b in 2019, up 38 cents and $1.76, respectively, from last month’s forecast.
Source: Platts

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