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Daily Currencies Ratings

Sterling slips versus dollar before BoE and Fed meetings

Britain’s pound was falling against a stronger dollar on Wednesday ahead of policy announcements by both the Bank of England and Federal Reserve over the next two days. The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.2671, and was on track to lose around 0.3% this month. “Markets are just positioning themselves before the Fed tonight and Bank of England policy meeting tomorrow,” said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank. Sterling is still one of the better performers in the G10 against the U.S. currency this year ...

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China’s major state banks defend yuan as stock markets slide – sources

China’s major state-owned banks were heavy sellers of dollars on Wednesday, three people with direct knowledge of their activity said, steadying the yuan as it came under pressure in currency trade as the economy remains shaky. State banks often act on behalf of China’s central bank in the foreign exchange market, but they could also trade on their own behalf or execute clients’ orders. One of the people said the selling was “very forceful” to defend the yuan at around 7.1820 per dollar in the onshore spot market. All the ...

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FX Daily: US data does the talking

USD: Fed should be in no hurry to cut In our Fed preview, we felt the central message coming across from tonight’s FOMC meeting would be that imminent action was not on the table. A recent speech by the Fed’s Christopher Waller has helped set the context for today’s meeting. While acknowledging that inflation and the labour market were moving in the right direction, he said that the Fed needed to see that improvements in inflation were not revised away (2023 annual benchmark revisions on 9 February) and that when ...

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Dollar mixed in tight trading range before Fed statement

The dollar edged lower against the euro and higher against the yen on Tuesday, but failed to find strong direction ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday and investors will focus on any clues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the likelihood of a rate cut in March. Solid U.S. economic data has led traders to pare bets of a March cut to a 46% probability, from around 89% a month ago, according to the ...

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FX Daily: Euro back under pressure

USD: Treasury borrowing requirements help local asset markets US asset markets got a boost late Monday on forecasts from the US Treasury that its first-quarter net borrowing requirement would be $55bn better than what it had predicted back in October. As our colleagues in rate strategy discuss here, this provides a better backdrop for tomorrow’s US Quarterly Refunding announcement. Treasuries rallied on the news and lower US yields also helped US tech stocks to new highs. On that subject, Alphabet, Microsoft and AMD announce 2023 fourth quarter earnings after the ...

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Dollar edges up ahead of Fed decision, euro slides ahead of GDP data

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision this week for clues on when the U.S. central bank might cut rates, while the euro was down ahead of euro zone flash GDP data for the fourth quarter due at 1000 GMT. Data on job openings from the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics due later on Tuesday will in the meantime offer a prelude to the closely watched payroll report to be released on Friday. The dollar index was 0.1% higher at 103.55 ...

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Dollar gains before Fed, March rate cut seen less likely

The dollar gained on Monday as investors prepared for the prospect that the Federal Reserve could push back against expectations of an imminent rate cut when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Traders have cut odds that the U.S. central bank will reduce rates to 49%, from 73% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, as data reinforces a view that the U.S. economy remains solid. That also contrasts to a weaker economic outlook for European countries, which is making the single currency relatively less attractive. ...

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FX Daily: Hard to fight the dovish narrative

USD: Gearing up for a big week The dollar has been the strongest performer across the G10 and emerging market currency blocs this year. This is probably down to US growth holding up well. This means that the Fed need not rush into rate cuts. Additionally, there is a far from compelling investment case in the rest of the world. For example, fourth quarter GDP data for 2023 should this week confirm the eurozone’s technical recession, and the news out of China has hardly filled investors with a sense of ...

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US dollar retreats after inflation data

The U.S. dollar fell on Friday, after data showed inflation rose modestly in December but was trending lower, which should keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates by the middle of the year. The greenback, however, was on track to post gains for four straight weeks. The dollar index was last down 0.3% at 103.25 . Data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.1% drop in November. In the 12 months through December, the PCE price index increased ...

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Yen bulls stock up on options for any BOJ spring surprises

Investors positioning for Japan’s first rate hike in nearly two decades have cooled on outright cash bets on the yen rising and turned to the options market to guard against any potential disappointment. Japanese inflation has run above policymakers’ target for well over a year and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s confidence that price gains are sustainable has strengthened an investor consensus that a rate rise will happen within months. At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this week, the BOJ maintained its ultra-easy monetary settings but ...

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FX Daily: Caught between a low rate and a strong US world

FX markets continue to trade in mixed fashion. The dollar is not quite sure whether it wants to rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off in a world of lower market interest rates. Its path will not be decided today. Instead, we expect some more consolidation into next week’s event risks of the US quarterly refunding and the FOMC meeting USD: December PCE data should confirm benign price trends Yesterday’s US data releases certainly can be filed in the ‘soft landing’ drawer. Decent growth and benign inflation support ...

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Asian FX bears gain momentum as hopes of early US rate cuts wane: Reuters poll

Bearish bets on multiple emerging Asian currencies gained momentum as traders adjusted their bets on early rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, driving investors to the safe-haven dollar, according to a Reuters poll. Most Asian currencies have been thrown off course from a U.S. dollar short squeeze since the beginning of the year after market participants scaled back expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts in 2024 by the Fed. The odds of policymakers cutting rates in March have fallen to 41.5% from just over 75% a month ago, according ...

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Dollar firm ahead of price data; euro down on ECB rate cut hopes

The U.S. dollar held steady onFriday as traders weighed how surprisingly strong economic growth data wouldimpact the Federal Reserve’s rate path and awaited a key inflation gauge laterin the day for more clues. The euro, meanwhile, was on the backfoot as traders ramped up bets of a rate cut in April after the EuropeanCentral Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy meeting on Thursday. In the United States, official data on the advanceGDP estimate showed gross domestic product in the last quarter increased at a 3.3% annualisedrate, overshooting the consensus forecast of ...

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US dollar up slightly after GDP data; euro falls after ECB, Lagarde comments

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday after data showed the world’s largest economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter, suggesting the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to cut interest rates amid a generally stable economy. The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s value versus six major currencies, was last up 0.1% at 103.37 <=USD>. The euro, on the other hand, fell against the dollar, after mixed comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. She said it was “premature to discuss ...

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FX Daily: Fed cancels the free lunch

USD: Let’s see how the US regional banks do today FX markets continue in their slightly risk-averse mode, where some of the investors’ favourite high-yield currencies – such as the Mexican peso and the Hungarian forint – remain under some pressure. This is despite global equity markets doing reasonably well. In short, we continue to see a very mixed investment environment and one in which conviction views can be dangerous. Looking ahead today, there are two US themes to focus on. The first is the Federal Reserve’s announcement last night ...

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