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Daily Currencies Ratings

China’s Digital Currency Strategy

China has been at the forefront of experimenting with a digital currency, with almost 21 million people taking part in digital yuan (e-CNY) tests through June, according to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). But what is the point of this experiment and what are the business and financial implications? First, a digital yuan offers better data for the PBOC—China’s central bank—and other government bodies. The more the digital currency is used, the more the government has instant awareness of purchases and transfers, even knowing the geographic location of activity. ...

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FX Daily: Not trusting the weaker dollar trend

USD: We don’t expect to see another bad week for the dollar In many ways, last week was a rather unique one for markets. A new risk factor – Beijing’s regulatory crackdown – hit risk assets, the Fed signalled it is nearing tapering but Powell sounded less hawkish than some expected, and ultimately the dollar weakened across the board. In the week ahead we think Beijing’s regulation moves will remain firmly in focus. Differently from what we saw at the start of last week, this now appears to be less ...

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Dollar languishes near one-month low as investors eye U.S. jobs, RBA

The dollar hovered just above a one-month low on Monday, with traders holding tight positions heading into a busy week that includes U.S. jobs data and an Australian central bank decision. The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against six major peers, stood at 92.065, down slightly from Friday, when it dipped as low as 91.775 for the first time since June 28. The index dropped 0.88% last week, its worst performance since early May, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated mid-week that rate increases were “a ways ...

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Dollar plumbs one-month low, set for worst week since May

The dollar languished near a one-month low on Friday and was set for its worst weekly performance since May as dovish remarks by the U.S. Federal Reserve together with underwhelming economic data took the steam out of a month-long rally. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was last at 91.853, a level not seen since June 29. For the week, the index is off 1.1%, its worst weekly showing since early May. For the month, the index is down 0.5% so far, ...

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Chinese yuan bears return after regulatory crackdown on private sector

Investors turned bearish on the yuan for the first time since April as China’s regulatory crackdown on private sector firms sent jitters through markets, while sentiment towards the Indian rupee improved from a fortnight ago, a Reuters poll found. Short positions were raised on all other Asian currencies like the Philippine peso PHP=, Malaysia’s ringgit and the Thai baht as the region’s dire COVID-19 situation and prospects of broad dollar strength eroded their appeal. All 13 responses for the poll were received, however, before the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome ...

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Markets tire of anti-dollar bet as central banks diverge

After 16 months of betting against the U.S. dollar, currency speculators appear to have thrown in the towel. Whether that’s positive or negative for the world’s biggest reserve currency is always a moot point. Extreme positioning often proves to be a contrary signal revealing more about stretched, overcrowded trades than a direction of travel. True to form, the overwhelmingly negative consensus on the dollar’s direction coming into 2021 ended up being one of the ‘pain trades’ of the year. Measured against the world’s second biggest reserve unit, the euro, or ...

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China’s quest for a fairer economy darkens yuan outlook

The offshore yuan’s meltdown on Tuesday, triggered by Beijing’s aggressive takedown of profit-driven education businesses and tech monopolies – partly for unfair worker treatment , portends more CNH weakness ahead. Private equity firms exposed to education-related investments are scrambling for the exit , while confusion over China’s tech crackdown has other investors similarly flustered and fleeing . Shanghai stocks fell as much as 2.0% early Wednesday, building on a 4.8% drop since Friday, though the yuan is recouping before a likely dovish FOMC outcome. Meanwhile, long-simmering concerns over indebted real ...

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Dollar stands firm as investors eye Fed decision

The dollar made marginal gains on Wednesday after being pinned down earlier, with investors holding off on placing major bets ahead of the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. dollar index moved into positive territory after trading lower in Asian hours. The greenback was last up 0.1% at 92.534. The Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the euro held onto the previous day’s gains in Asian trading hours, with the safe-haven yen trading at 109.80 per dollar and the euro at $1.1809. The dollar has enjoyed a month-long ...

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Dollar’s ascent pauses before Fed outcome; Aussie struggles

The U.S. dollar’s march towards a 3-1/2 month high paused on Tuesday as a Fed policy meeting got underway with risk appetite broadly subdued, leaving the Australian dollar struggling due to a widening regulatory crackdown in China. Against a basket of its rivals =USD, the greenback was trading at 92.73, not far from an early April high of 93.19 hit on July 21. The dollar has rallied more than 4% from 2021 lows of below 90 hit in late May as a decline in U.S. Treasury yields forced investors to ...

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FX Daily: Remember the China risk factor?

Deteriorating political ties between Beijing and Western economies, along with further signs of a crackdown on Chinese tech companies, have caused a sell-off in Chinese equities, and a risk-off environment to start the week. This could help USD stay supported into the FOMC on Wednesday, while German IFO should be no game-changer for the EUR. USD: Focus on China before the FOMC US equities rebounded strongly last week and closed at record highs on Friday. In the Asian session, gains in Japanese stocks were more than offset by a sharp ...

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Sterling edges up as UK COVID infections recede for now

Sterling edged up against the dollar and euro on Monday, after data over the weekend showed a fall in COVID-19 cases in Britain but experts warned the full impact of the economy’s reopening on infection rates remained to be seen. The pound has held up better than most major currencies in recent weeks, supported by Britain’s high vaccination rate at a time when the Delta variant has caused cases to surge worldwide. The pound was the second-best performing G10 currency over the previous week’s 5-day trading period. On the day ...

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China’s digital yuan could pose challenges to the U.S. dollar

China is beating the U.S. when it comes to innovation in online money, posing challenges to the U.S. dollar’s status as the de facto monetary reserve. Nearly 80 countries — including China and the U.S. — are in the process of developing a CBDC, or Central Bank Digital Currency. It’s a form of money that’s regulated but exists entirely online. China has already launched its digital yuan to more than a million Chinese citizens, while the U.S. is still largely focused on research. The two groups tasked with this research ...

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Death cross warning adds another worry to Euro outlook

For technical analysts watching EUR/USD, an important and potentially bearish chart formation just happened on the daily chart: A “death cross.” The formation could signal further losses ahead. Technical analysts use the term “death cross” to describe when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term average, signalling a change in price momentum. The 50-and 200-day combination often attracts the most attention. Thursday’s price action delivered the signal with EUR/USD’s 50-day moving average falling below its 200-day moving average, EBS prices. The warning comes as EUR/USD attempts to base in ...

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U.S. dollar posts second week of gains ahead of Fed meeting

The U.S. dollar on Friday notched a second week of gains after a volatile few days when currencies moved with shifting risk appetite, with the market’s focus now on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Some analysts wondered, though, whether the dollar’s recent rally may be losing momentum. The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was slightly higher on the day at 92.894. For the week, it was up 0.1%, after rising 0.6% previously. But that was off a 3-1/2-month high of 93.194 ...

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Indian central bank looking at phased launch of its own digital currency

The Reserve Bank of India is considering a phased introduction of its own central bank digital currency (CBDC), deputy governor T. Rabi Shankar said, and is examining various issues including the underlying technology and issuance method. “CBDCs are likely to be in the arsenal of every central bank going forward. Setting this up will require careful calibration and a nuanced approach in implementation,” Shankar said according to a speech released late on Thursday. “As is said, every idea will have to wait for its time. Perhaps the time for CBDCs ...

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