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OECD Economic Outlook reveals heavy global price of Russia’s war against Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine immediately slowed the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and set the global economy on a course of lower growth and rising inflation. The OECD’s latest Economic Outlook projects global growth to decelerate sharply to around 3% this year and 2.8% in 2023, well below the recovery projected in the previous Economic Outlook last December. The economic and social impact of the war is strongest in Europe, with many of the countries hardest hit in Europe, given exposure through energy imports and refugee flows. High inflation is ...

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Inflation in the OECD rises to 9.2% in April 2022 as food and services prices accelerate

Consumer prices (CPI) in the OECD rose by 9.2% year-on-year in April 2022, compared with 8.8% in March 2022. Excluding food and energy, year-on-year inflation increased to 6.3% in April 2022, compared with 5.9% in March 2022. Food price inflation in the OECD continued to strongly pick up, reaching 11.5% in April 2022 compared with 10.0% in March. Services prices accelerated in most OECD countries, rising by 4.4% year-on-year in April 2022 on average across 33 OECD countries, compared with 3.9% in March. These increases in food and services prices ...

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IMF secures $40 billion so far for new sustainability trust

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has received $40 billion in pledges for its new Resilience and Sustainability Trust to address challenges such as climate change, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said, close to their target set last month. Building resilience to the effects of climate change will cost trillions of dollars over the next decade, she said in a pre-recorded speech broadcast to the Ibrahim Governance Forum, an Africa-focused conference. Climate investment globally needs to increase by up to six times from the roughly $640 billion spent in 2020, to keep ...

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Prices push value of G20 merchandise trade to new high in Q1 2022, while services growth slows

Following six quarters of sustained growth, the value of international merchandise trade for the G20 reached a new high in Q1 2022. Exports and imports increased by 3.6% and 5.8%, as compared to Q4 2021 and measured in current US dollars. The increase is largely explained by rising commodity prices, as the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 containment measures in East Asia placed further pressure on the prices of traded goods and on already strained supply chains. Growth in exports and imports of services for the G20 are estimated at ...

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Middle East and North Africa’s Commodity Importers Hit by Higher Prices

The war in Ukraine and related sanctions have triggered a sharp increase in commodity prices, which will add to the challenges facing countries in the Middle East and North Africa—particularly the region’s oil importers. After leaping to a peak of $130 per barrel following Russia’s invasion, oil prices are expected to settle at an annual average of around $107 in 2022, up $38 from 2021, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook. Similarly, food prices are expected to increase by an additional 14 percent in 2022, after reaching historical ...

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Inflation and high commodity prices to hit MENA oil importing countries, IMF says

Inflation and the Ukraine war-driven surge in commodity prices will take a significant economic toll on Middle East and North Africa oil-importing nations, the International Monetary Fund has said. Rising prices come at a “precarious time”, given the diverging economic recovery in the region, Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, wrote in a blog post on Tuesday. “Higher inflation is one of the most direct impacts of rising commodity prices,” said Mr Azour, who co-wrote the blog with senior IMF economists Jeta ...

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Prices push value of G20 merchandise trade to new high in Q1 2022, while services growth slows

Following six quarters of sustained growth, the value of international merchandise trade for the G20 reached a new high in Q1 2022. Exports and imports increased by 3.6% and 5.8%, as compared to Q4 2021 and measured in current US dollars. The increase is largely explained by rising commodity prices, as the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 containment measures in East Asia placed further pressure on the prices of traded goods and on already strained supply chains. Growth in exports and imports of services for the G20 are estimated at ...

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OECD chief ‘quietly optimistic’ about EU global minimum tax deal approval

The head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday said he was “quietly optimistic” a landmark deal to establish a global minimum tax will be approved by European Union members but implementation may not occur until 2024. OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann also told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that it was “manifestly” in the interest of the United States to join the deal struck last year among nearly 140 countries to establish a global minimum tax rate of 15% on ...

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Labour taxation rebounding as global economy recovers from COVID-19 pandemic

Effective tax rates on labour rebounded in 2021 as the global economy recovered and many countries began withdrawing or scaling back measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new OECD report. Taxing Wages 2022 shows that rising household incomes in 2021 coupled with the reversal of many tax and benefit policies linked to the pandemic drove increases in effective taxes on wages across the OECD. This marks a turn-around from 2020, when the pandemic drove significant decreases in the labour tax wedge – defined as the ...

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OECD GDP growth slows sharply in the first quarter of 2022

In the first quarter of 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter according to provisional estimates, a sharp slowdown compared with the 1.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Figure 1). In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth turned negative in Q1 2022, falling by 0.1% compared with an increase of 1.2% in Q4 2021. The G7 result in the first quarter of 2022 reflects negative GDP growth in the United States (minus 0.4%), Italy (minus 0.2%) and Japan (minus 0.2%), as well as ...

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World economy has ‘buffer’ against recession says IMF’s Gopinath

While the world economy faces headwinds, current growth forecasts offer a buffer against a potential global recession, the International Monetary Fund’s No. 2 official said Monday (May 23). Among the major threats to economic growth, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath told Reuters that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate, adding: “You could have sanctions and counter-sanctions”. Gopinath said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos that the other challenges included inflation, a tightening of interest rates by central ...

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IMF chief does not expect recession but it isn’t ‘out of the question’

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Monday said she does not expect a recession for the world’s major economies but also cannot rule one out. Asked at a panel at the World Economic Forum whether she expected a recession, Georgieva said: “No, not at this point. It doesn’t mean it is out of the question.” The global economic outlook has darkened in the month since the IMF downgraded its 2022 growth outlook because of the war in Ukraine, China’s slowdown and global price shocks, particularly for food, she ...

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IMF sees tepid German recovery but risks skewed to the downside

The German economy is on track for a tepid economic recovery but risks are tilted to the downside and Berlin should focus on cushioning the impact of the war in Ukraine and on securing gas supplies, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. Fiscal policy in Europe’s largest economy should be flexible in an uncertain environment, the IMF added in a statement after a mission to Germany. The IMF said it projected that growth in the German economy would slow to about 2% in 2022, picking up in 2023 to ...

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IMF urges Asia to be mindful of spillover risks from tightening

ASIAN economies must be mindful of spillover risks as a decade of unconventional easing policies by major central banks is withdrawn faster than expected, International Monetary Fund (IMF) deputy managing director Kenji Okamura said. This risk applied particularly to the most vulnerable economies, said Okamura, without naming them. Asian economies faced a choice between supporting growth with more stimulus and withdrawing it to stabilise debt and inflation, he said. While Bank of Japan policy runs counter to a global shift towards monetary tightening, central banks in the United States, Britain ...

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IMF’s Georgieva says finance leaders need to anticipate multiple inflation shocks

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that global finance leaders may need to become more comfortable with fighting multiple bouts of inflationary pressures. Georgieva told Reuters on the sidelines of a G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Germany that it is getting harder for central banks to bring down inflation without causing recessions, due to mounting pressures on energy and food prices from Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policies that have slashed manufacturing with lockdowns, and the need to reorder supply chains ...

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