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IEA says calm in oil markets could be short-lived

Following strong demand growth in 1Q18, in 2Q18 and 3Q18 the pace has slowed dramatically to a relatively subdued 1 mb/d. In 4Q18 we expect a rebound and demand will be 100.2 mb/d. For 2018, our global demand growth outlook is unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. In 2019 growth accelerates slightly to 1.5 mb/d, but there are risks to the forecast from escalating trade disputes and rising prices if supply is constrained. Global oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in July to 99.4 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d above a year-ago. Compliance with ...

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US-China trade war doesn’t change the bull case for oil, Goldman’s commodity chief says

The chief commodity researcher at Goldman Sachs says the bull case for oil remains in tact despite an escalating trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies that has stoked fears of weakening demand for crude. U.S. crude settled at a seven-week low below $67 a barrel on Thursday. It is now on pace for its worst string of weekly losses in three years, after China threatened a new round of retaliatory tariffs against the United States. But Jeff Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research, is keeping his $70 ...

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U.S. Forecasts 50% Cut in Iran Oil Sales, Missing Goal

The Trump administration forecasts that it will persuade countries to cut Iranian oil imports by as much as 1 million barrels a day when it reimposes energy sanctions in early November, according to two people familiar with the administration’s efforts to choke off Tehran’s crude sales. The assessment forecasts a range of likely cuts of 700,000 to 1 million barrels a day — a significant reduction for the Islamic Republic but short of the announced U.S. goal of halting all sales of Iranian crude. Iran exported an average of about ...

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U.S. Sanctions May Risk Russia’s Oil Production, Refining

The new U.S. sanctions placed on Russia may put the country’s longer-term crude production potential at risk. America’s ban on exporting certain “sensitive” goods and technologies, which will take effect later this month, may be a bitter pill for the Russian oil producers to swallow as the 11-million-barrel a day industry is heavily reliant on foreign drilling and refinery equipment. Earlier this month Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council and close ally of President Vladimir Putin, called the dependancy “a serious problem,” as cited by Interfax. If the new ...

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How US-China trade war may bring cheaper oil to Indian shores

Highlights -China’s biggest trading house has already stopped buying US crude and Beijing looks set to slap retaliatory tariffs on US crude and LNG -Meanwhile, in August, India has booked a total of 9.94 million barrels of crude from US, which is almost triple the amount in July -Industry players say India may enjoy a better bargaining power to argue for a US waiver The trade war between China and the US + has shown enough signs of escalation, with the two economic powerhouses employing tit-for-tat tactics for imposing tariffs ...

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U.S. Sanctions on Iran Up the Ante in Mideast Oil Price War

A price war is brewing between top oil producers in the Middle East, and the U.S. may be at the heart of it. State-run National Iranian Oil Co. reduced official prices for September sales to Asia across all grades, said a company official on Friday, who asked not to be identified because of internal policy. The Light crude pumped by OPEC’s third-largest producer will be sold at its cheapest level in 14 years versus a similar variety from rival group member Saudi Arabia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ...

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China move to drop crude off tariff list a relief for Sinopec

China’s decision to remove crude oil from its latest tariff list in an escalating trade war with the United States was a relief to state oil firms prompted by a strong lobbying effort by main importer the Sinopec Group, Beijing-based oil sources said. Dropping crude oil from the final tariff list on $16 billion in U.S. goods announced late on Wednesday underscores the growing importance of the United States as a key global producer and critical alternative supply source for top importer China, which is seeking to diversify its oil ...

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Oil up on Iran sanctions but set for weekly decline

Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Friday as U.S. sanctions against Iran looked set to tighten supply, but futures remained lower for the week as investors worried that global trade disputes could slow economic growth and hurt demand for energy. Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 90 cents at $72.96 a barrel by 1:56 EDT (1756 GMT). U.S. light crude CLc1 was 78 cents higher at $67.59 a barrel. Brent remained on course to fall 0.3 percent in the week, while U.S. crude was on track to ...

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Iran sets Sept light crude price at $1.20/bbl above Oman/Dubai quotes – source

The National Iranian Oil Company has set the September official selling price (OSP) for Iranian Light crude to Asia at $1.20 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai quotes, 80 cents lower than the previous month, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. The September OSP for Iranian Heavy crude was set at 90 cents a barrel below Oman-Dubai quotes, while Forozan’s OSP is at 75 cents a barrel below Oman-Dubai quotes, the source said. Soroush September OSP was set at $5.55 a barrel below ...

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Oil steady as Iran sanctions balance impact of trade war

Oil prices steadied on Friday as concerns that a global trade dispute will slow economic growth and demand for fuel were balanced by U.S. sanctions against Iran that look set to tighten supply. Benchmark Brent crude oil was up 20 cents at $72.27 a barrel by 1120 GMT. U.S. light crude was 10 cents higher at $66.91 a barrel. “Sentiment is sandwiched between fears that a U.S.-China trade dispute will hurt oil demand and looming Iranian supply shortages,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. Escalating trade ...

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How Oil Producers Can Go Broke When The Price Of Oil Soars

It is earnings season, and oil producers are not all putting out good earnings reports, despite a rise in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from $40 per barrel just two years ago to $70 per barrel today. You would think that companies that barely survived two years ago would now be flush with earnings, but for some companies, the opposite is true, as financial contracts from a year or so ago are now coming back to bite. Hedging allows producers to minimize price risk by locking in the ...

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Trump Is Winning Over Fastest Growing Oil Market at Iran’s Risk

One of Iran’s biggest oil customers is buying more U.S. crude as President Donald Trump sticks to his pledge to squeeze the Persian Gulf nation’s energy trade. State-run refiner Indian Oil Corp., which had been buying U.S. crude in the spot market, signed a term tender to purchase American oil for delivery every month between November and January, according to Finance Director Arun Kumar Sharma. That will help more than double the company’s shipments from the U.S. so far this year compared to last fiscal year. “This tender is the ...

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Japan spot LNG contract price hits 5-month high in July

The average contract price for spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes for shipment to Japan last month hit a five-month high of $10.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), Japan’s trade ministry data showed. Asian spot LNG prices held around $10 last month as a heatwave gripped Japan and high temperatures swept across South Korea and parts of China, boosting cooling demand. The average price of spot LNG cargoes that arrived in Japan last month was $10.30 per mmBtu. METI surveys spot LNG cargoes bought by Japanese utilities and other ...

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China data: Shandong independent refiners cut run rates to 52.5% in July

China’s Shandong independent refineries cut run rates to a 19-month low of 52.5% in July, 17 percentage points lower than the record high of 69.5% reached last December, according to a monthly report by local information provider JLC. The July rate was about three percentage points lower than market expectations of around 55.5% for the month. The lower run rate in July was mainly attributed to a heavy maintenance period amid narrowing refining margins. A combined capacity of around 43.7 million mt/year at 13 independent refineries, or about 27% of ...

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Tariff on US imports would add to price pressures on LNG from weak yuan and global market gain

A potential 25 per cent tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas would add to the rising cost burden for Chinese natural gas importers and consumers, but it is not their biggest worry, since they are already suffering from the impact of a weaker yuan and higher international market prices, according to analysts. But higher prices are unlikely to dampen rapidly rising Chinese demand, as the government pushes ahead with its plan to switch much of the country to the cleaner-burning fuel from coal to reduce air pollution. “In ...

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