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EUROPE: GAS-Prices rise on Russian gas supply concerns, LNG tightening

British and Dutch wholesale gas prices rose on Friday morning on concerns about Russian gas supply, tightening of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and ahead of a Norwegian strike next week which could impact output. In the UK market, the day-ahead contract was 4.00 pence higher at 160.00 pence per therm by 0833 GMT, while the weekend contract was up 10.00 pence at 165 p/therm. The benchmark Dutch wholesale gas contract for August edged up by 0.10 euro to 148.10 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). Traders said there are ...

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Supply fears to sustain oil rally, trumping recession risks

Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel this year as Europe and other regions struggle to wean themselves off Russian supply, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, though economic risks could slow the climb. A survey of 34 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude LCOc1 would average $106.82 a barrel in 2022, the highest prediction for the year so far, versus a $101.89 consensus in May. Brent has averaged about $105 a barrel this year, and is now trading around $116 a barrel, amid supply concerns. O/R ...

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Total recoverable oil worldwide is now 9% lower than last year, threatening global energy security

Following publication of BP’s annual Statistical Review, each year Rystad Energy releases our own analysis of the global energy landscape to provide an independent, data-based comparison and evaluation. Continuing the trend from previous years, Rystad Energy’s 2022 review shows a sizeable drop in recoverable oil resources in what could deal a major blow to global energy security. According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels, a drop of almost 9% since last year and 152 billion fewer barrels than 2021’s total. Recoverable oil ...

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Russian oil price cap could push global prices higher – Russia’s Novak says

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that attempts to limit the price of Russian oil could lead to “disbalance” in the market and push prices higher. Russian oil price cap could push global prices higher – Russia’s Novak says His comments come after G7 leaders agreed on Tuesday to explore “the feasibility of introducing temporary import price caps” on Russian fossil fuel, including oil, and tasked ministers to evaluate the proposal urgently. “This is another attempt to intervene into the market mechanisms which may only lead to ...

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Beijing offers subsidy for refineries if reference crude price exceeds $130/b

China will subsidize refineries if its reference basket of crude prices rise over $130/b, a move to sustain gasoline and gasoil production to ensure domestic supplies under its current oil product pricing mechanism, according to a government notice released June 29. The notice stated that the government will cover the subsidy for two months. This suggests that Beijing has estimated that crude prices are unlikely to stay over $130/b for more than two months as it will hurt consumption, a Beijing-based source with knowledge of the matter told S&P Global ...

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Eastward gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline fall

Eastward flows of Russian gas via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany fell on Friday morning in line with nominations or requests for gas, data from pipeline operator Gascade showed. Exit flows at the Mallnow metering point on the German border stood at 799,300 kilowatt hours per hour (kWh/h) around 0600 GMT on Friday, down from about 2,732,330 kWh/h earlier in the morning. Physical flows to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline across the Baltic Sea were steady at 29,291 kWh/h, operator company information showed. Russian gas producer ...

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U.S. natgas jumps 8% ahead of July 4 weekend in technical bounce

U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Friday ahead of the long three-day U.S. July 4 holiday weekend due to a technical bounce following a big price drop in the prior session and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Friday’s price rise came after futures plunged 17% on Thursday following the release of a federal report that analysts said would likely keep Freeport LNG’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas shut for longer than the three months the ...

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Russia seizes control of Sakhalin gas project, raises stakes with West

President Vladimir Putin has raised the stakes in an economic war with the West and its allies with a decree that seizes full control of the Sakhalin-2 gas and oil project in Russia’s far east, a move that could force out Shell and Japanese investors. The order, signed on Thursday, creates a new firm to take over all rights and obligations of Sakhalin Energy Investment Co, in which Shell and two Japanese trading companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold just under 50%. The five-page decree, which follows Western sanctions imposed on ...

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Algeria’s Sonatrach mulls new formulas to raise gas prices for European buyers- sources

Algeria’s state oil and gas producer Sonatrach is negotiating ways to benefit from significant global gas price rises in its long-term contracts with European buyers, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Sonatrach is considering several options, including a partial link to spot price gas prices in contracts that have historically been linked to the price of Brent crude, the sources said. Concern over Russian gas supply to Europe has sent benchmark front month and day ahead Dutch TTF gas contracts up more than 80% and 110% respectively so ...

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Above-average 82 Bcf build in weekly US gas storage thins deficit, weakens futures

US natural gas working stocks increased by 82 Bcf during the week ended June 24, reducing the deficit to the five-year average to its lowest point yet this injection season and helping plunge natural gas futures to a three-month low. Now Storage inventories rose to 2.251 Tcf in the week ended June 24, the US Energy Information Administration reported on June 30. The weekly build outpaced even the highest estimate received in an S&P Global Commodity Insights’ survey of analysts, which called for a 72 Bcf weekly injection. Survey responses ...

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The Commodities Feed: No surprises from OPEC+

Energy The oil market came under further pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent falling by more than 3%. This follows a contraction in (real) US spending over May, while there were also revisions lower in 1Q22 spending data, highlighting that the consumer sector is perhaps not as resilient as thought. There is a very real risk that we see a further deterioration in spending over the second half of the year. So for oil, it is clear that macro developments are still the key driver for price direction at the moment. ...

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Oil prices up 2% on supply outages

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday, recouping most of the previous session’s declines, as supply outages in Libya and expected shutdowns in Norway outweighed expectations that an economic slowdown could dent demand. Brent crude futures were up $2.07, or 1.9%, at $111.10 a barrel by 0911 GMT, having dropped to $108.03 a barrel earlier in the session. WTI crude futures gained $1.80, or 1.7%, to $107.56 a barrel, after retreating to $104.56 a barrel earlier. Both contracts fell around 3% on Thursday, ending the month lower for the first time ...

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Saudi Arabia may raise Aug crude prices to Asia to near record levels

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may raise prices of light crude grades to Asia for the second straight month in August on the back of record distillate margins and strong spot premiums for Middle Eastern oil this month. The official selling price (OSP) for Saudi’s flagship Arab Light crude could rise by about $2.4 a barrel from the previous month, according to nine refining sources surveyed by Reuters on June 28-29. The price hike would drive the August OSP close to record levels, set when May Arab Light crude reached ...

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Summer oil price spike looms if West’s price cap strategy fails: RBC’s Croft

The West’s latest strategy to increase pressure on Russian oil revenues while also trying to reduce global oil prices could backfire and lead to another painful price spike this summer, RBC Capital Market’s Helima Croft said during a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event. G7 leaders are working on a price cap mechanism that would allow Russian oil to keep flowing to India, China and other countries while the US and Europe have shunned the barrels over the Ukraine war. Under a price cap, the governments would agree on a ...

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Biden administration drilling plan may exclude all waters beyond Gulf of Mexico

The U.S. Interior Department has recommended to the White House that all federal offshore oil and gas drilling auctions over the next five years be located in the Gulf of Mexico, where the drilling industry has already been focused for decades, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The recommendation to exclude all other waters from offshore oil and gas development comes as U.S. President Joe Biden seeks to balance his goal to transition the country away from fossil fuels against a Congressional requirement to hold regular drilling auctions, ...

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