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China’s vast copper overhang will clear, one way or another

The massive overhang of copper in China is starting to work its way through the global market dynamics for the industrial metal, with prices easing and trade flows likely to adjust. Stockpiles have surged this year in China, which imports about 60% of global traded copper, carrying inventories CU-STX-SGH registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) to a 51-month high of 339,964 metric tons in the week to June 7. Stockpiles in China usually follow a distinct seasonal patter, with strong builds at the start of the year, followed by ...

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Strategie Grains cuts EU wheat crop forecast as harvesting starts

Strategie Grains lowered its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat crop in the European Union, confirming its expectation for a four-year low in production as harvesting gets under way. The consultancy now sees 2024/25 soft wheat production in the 27-country bloc at 121.8 million metric tons, 1.7 million tons less than it projected in May. The consultancy’s latest projection is 3.6% below last year’s output and would be the lowest since 2020/21 when the crop was also affected by heavy rain during the growing season. In a summary of ...

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WASDE: USDA raises 2024-25 global corn output estimate

The US Department of Agriculture made no change to the US corn outlook for the marketing year 2024-25 (September-August) relative to last month, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, published June 12, said. The unchanged outlook was in line with the forecast of analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights. The department kept its outlook for corn used for ethanol unchanged at 5.45 billion bushels. The season average farm price for US 2024-25 corn was stable at $4.40/bu. Meanwhile, the department marginally increased MY 2024-25 global corn production by ...

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Global nickel prices have probably hit a floor, says Macquarie

Global nickel prices may have hit a floor, according to a Macquarie analyst who sees a market recovery driven by strong demand from the steel sector and as a surplus of ore supplies shrinks after Indonesia slowed production permits. “Our belief is that we’ve seen the bottom, we’ve seen the supply adjustments, we see the uncertainty in future supply, and that is giving us quite a lot of support where the prices are today,” Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon told a conference organised by Shanghai Metals Market in Jakarta this week. ...

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Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest could near record, Rosario exchange says

Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest could near the record set in the 2021/22 season, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, pegging its estimate for 2024/25 at 21 million metric tons. The exchange said that planting of the crop itself could be a record, with an estimated area of 6.92 million hectares. “Loaded soil profiles, good margins and the need to rotate (crops) in the central and northern parts of the country after the impact of the leafhopper give a boost to wheat planting,” the exchange said in a report. Crops ...

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Benign US inflation could support stock market laggards

Signs of falling U.S. inflation on Wednesday and growing hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be a positive signal for large swathes of the stock market that have languished in a rally led by Big Tech. Benign consumer price data fueled bets the Fed will lower rates in coming months and sent the S&P 500 .SPX to fresh highs. Stocks held onto gains after theFederal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an encouraging assessment of the economy. Some investors believe expectations ...

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FX Daily: French political risk takes its toll on the euro

USD: Softer US price data being ignored in FX Yesterday’s release of softer US May PPI data should have sent the dollar lower across the board. After all, it pointed to the May core PCE price data – released on 28 June – coming in at 0.2% or even 0.1% month-on-month. That would be music to the ears of the Federal Reserve. What we saw, however, was the dollar reversing its PPI losses within a couple of hours as European asset markets reacted to an opinion poll showing French President ...

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Biden win would benefit bonds, Trump better for growth, says Morgan Stanley CIO

Bond markets would likely benefit if U.S. President Joe Biden is re-elected as his administration will try to raise taxes to offset some of the government spending, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer said on Wednesday. However, under the scenario that former President Donald Trump were to win the Nov. 5 election, it “would be better for growth but worse for bonds”, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Over the last 12 to 18 months, investors have favored high-quality large-cap stocks that have seen earnings revisions, ...

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China can divide-and-trade a less welcoming Europe

China is failing to contain its rivalry with the West to the United States. The European Union’s provisional tariffs on electric vehicles from the People’s Republic announced on Wednesday are a setback to Beijing’s relationship with the bloc. Yet President Xi Jinping will test the region’s ability to form a coherent policy towards the world’s second largest economy. Sentiment appeared to be improving in April when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz brought a delegation to China, including business leaders from Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE to BMW BMWG.DE. A month later, Xi was cosying ...

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UBS pushes back Fed rate cut forecast to December

UBS Global Research said it now expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in December instead of September, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley continue to expect the first cut in September. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, and Fed officials reined in projections for how aggressively they would cut rates this year, from three 25 basis point rate cuts to just one. “The data is going to need to change a lot of minds ...

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Eurozone industry underperforms as tariff worries loom

Eurozone industry has been in a recessionary trend since early 2023 and the latest data shows no imminent sign of recovery. The economy has started to pick up since the start of the year, but industry is lagging the recovery. The April production data showed a small tick down, mainly driven by Ireland and Italy. Expectations of a recovery have been growing, but so far the data still doesn’t show much of it. This comes just as the European Commission has announced higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles as of ...

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G7 focus switches to China, Pope to lead AI discussions

Group of Seven leaders launched into a final day of talks at their annual summit on Friday, with China topping the agenda before Pope Francis puts in an historic appearance to discuss artificial intelligence. The pope will be joined by 10 other heads of state and government, including the prime minister of India and the king of Jordan, as the G7 throws open its doors to outsiders to show it isn’t an aloof, exclusive club. During the first day of their meeting in southern Italy, the G7 nations agreed on ...

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OECD unemployment rate stable at 4.9% in April 2024

The OECD unemployment rate was stable at 4.9% in April 2024, remaining below or at 5.0% since April 2022. In April, the rate was unchanged in 25 OECD countries, declined in 4 countries, and rose in 3. Five OECD countries recorded a rate below or equal to 3.0% including Japan, Mexico, Czechia, and Korea while the rate of Colombia, Greece and Spain was above 10%. The number of unemployed persons in the OECD fell slightly to a total of 34.1 million, remaining stable or decreasing in 18 countries with the ...

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Launches Houston Carbon-Accounted Methanol Bunker Prices

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, has launched a first-of-type daily sustainable methanol bunker price assessments basis the US Gulf Coast, effective June 13, in response to the maritime industry’s ever-evolving need for greater pricing transparency. The new assessments follow a consultation with the marketplace and are aimed at helping shipowners, charterers, shipping brokers compare the cost of a voyage on low carbon methanol versus other alternative marine fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen. The new Platts carbon-accounted methanol marine fuel (MMF) price assessments will reflect values on a ...

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Singapore fuel oil stockpiles extend climb for third week

Onshore fuel oil stockpiles at key trading and storage hub Singapore rose for a third straight week as imports recovered, data showed on Thursday. Inventories inched 1.6% higher at 19.16 million barrels (3.02 million metric tons) in the week ended June 12, hitting a five-week high, Enterprise Singapore data showed. Net imports, calculated by subtracting total exports from total imports, more than tripled from the previous week to about 538,000 tons. Brazil remained the top origin for inflows for a second consecutive week, with imports extending gains to 185,000 tons. ...

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