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STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR 03/06/2023

NASDAQ-Adv: 2,929 Dec: 1,471 NYSE-Adv: 3,021 Dec: 9,95 (Source: Nasdaq)

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Dollar edges higher after larger-than-expected rise in May payrolls

The U.S. dollar edged higher in choppy trading on Friday after May’s non-farm payrolls report showed employment surged but a jump in unemployment rate capped the gains. The report showed that payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 in May, surging past expectations. Economists polled by Reuters expected non-farm payrolls to have increased by 190,000 in May, from April’s 253,000 rise. Despite strong hiring, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency ...

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China’s yuan may slip further to aid economic recovery – analysts

China’s yuan has skidded to six-month lows against the dollar and analysts say it could weaken further as investors fret over a bumpy pandemic recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Disappointing economic data, widening yield differentials with the United States, upcoming corporate dividend payments and continued capital outflows through foreign selling of stocks and bonds have combined to drag the currency down to levels last seen in November. The yuan has depreciated more than 5% against the surging dollar since the highs hit in January, when global markets embraced China’s ...

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Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down

Germany is leading the biggest rally in global bond markets since March’s banking rout as cooling inflation and a weakening economy suggest European Central Bank rate hikes are nearing an end. Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week. Alongside British and U.S. peers, yields – which move inversely to bond prices – were set for their biggest weekly declines since mid-March when banking turmoil sparked a dash to safe-havens. Certainly, government bonds remain hostage to data ...

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Surging temple and lottery stocks mirror China’s weak recovery

Shares in some Chinese temple operators and lottery sellers surged for a second day on Thursday amid a weak post-COVID recovery, as despondent young people rush to pray or gamble amid greater economic uncertainty. Data showed Chinese temple visits more than quadrupled this year compared with 2022, while sales of lottery tickets jumped in April to their highest in a decade. In stark contrast, the youth unemployment rate hit a record 20.4% in April, and multiple indicators showed economic recovery is losing steam following an initial bounce after China lifted ...

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Beware conflating ‘de-dollarisation’ with weaker dollar: Mike Dolan

Even if the U.S. dollar’s singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate – and could periodically mean the opposite. A Federal Reserve less worried about the overspill of its monetary policies to the rest of the world is a central bank more inclined to extreme tightening and easing. And a less dollarised global economy could potentially free the Fed to stay locally focussed – for better or worse – and keep inflation lower over time. ...

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FX Daily: Debt ceiling deal lifts sentiment, with Asian FX even getting a boost

USD: Dollar bias looks lower unless NFP comes in strong Thursday proved somewhat of a turnaround session for the dollar. News that the Federal Reserve was preparing to skip a hike at the June meeting plus later progress on the debt ceiling deal saw the DXY sell off 0.8%. Whether this marks an important reversal for the dollar will largely be down to whether US activity data, particularly US price data, allows the Fed room to breathe – i.e. to reflect on the 500bp of tightening so far – without ...

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Stocks gain, dollar stumbles as US averts default, Fed skip bets rise

Global stocks and commodities rose on Friday while the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop since January, as sentiment was buoyed by signs the Fed will skip a rate hike at its next meeting and the approval of U.S. debt ceiling legislation. Markets are now focused on U.S. jobs data due 0830 EST (1230 GMT), the most significant macro economic release of the week, for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path. The U.S. Labor Department’s employment report is likely to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 190,000 ...

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Dollar sags as chances grow for Fed ‘skip’, debt bill passes

The dollar headed for its largest weekly fall since mid-January on Friday as the view took hold among investors that the Federal Reserve will forgo an interest rate hike this month, which would diminish the greenback’s appeal to non-U.S. buyers. The U.S. Senate’s passage of a bill to suspend the debt ceiling and avert a disastrous default also removed a pillar of support for the dollar, which had paradoxically been a key beneficiary because of its safe-haven status. The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage stoked ...

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Asia week ahead: Reserve Bank of Australia to decide on policy rate

Persistent inflation could prompt RBA to hike again The June Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting is a tough one to call. The RBA recently confused markets with its reversion to a more hawkish stance, even as inflation was weakening, and now the fall in inflation has reversed, there is a reasonable argument for it to hike again this month. However, the quarterly CPI data still seem to carry more weight than the monthly series at the moment, so some forecasters expect the RBA to wait until the August meeting ...

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STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR 02/06/2023

NASDAQ-Adv: 1,867 Dec: 2,564 NYSE-Adv: 1,680 Dec: 2,334 (Source: Nasdaq)

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Euro up after Lagarde promises rate hike while Fed signals June pause

The euro recovered from a two-month low Thursday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said inflation remained too high and further policy tightening was necessary. Data showed on Thursday that inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 6.1% in May from 7.0% in April, below expectations for 6.3% in a Reuters poll of economists. But the current level is still more than three times the ECB’s 2% inflation target. “Today, inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long,” Lagarde ...

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Foreigners pull more money out of China in May

Foreign investors’ selling of Chinese shares gained some momentum in May, as flagging domestic demand and expectations for weak corporate earnings led to steep falls on mainland and Hong Kong stock markets. Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. The selling marks a slow reversal of their heavy investment totaling $20.92 billion in January when China reopened its economy after three years of COVID ...

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Can a New York state law solve an emerging markets debt crisis?

A bill backed by debt justice campaigners and civil society groups advocating on behalf of economically distressed countries could alter past and future sovereign debt restructurings covered by New York state law – and Wall Street is watching. These are some key points about the bill. WHAT DOES THE BILL PROPOSE? Senate Bill S4747, the NY Taxpayer and International Debt Crises Protection Act, “relates to New York state’s support of international debt relief initiatives for certain developing countries.” The bill includes limits to state investments into foreign entities and would ...

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FX Daily: Dollar skips to the Fed beat

USD: We’re hearing more of this term ‘skip’ Having enjoyed a decent rally on the back of some surprisingly strong JOLTS job opening data, the dollar sold off late yesterday on a couple of Federal Reserve speakers (Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson) suggesting that the Fed could potentially ‘skip’ a rate hike at the June meeting – but leave the door open for a July hike. That term ‘skip’ first entered the Fed lexicon with remarks from Christopher Waller last week and suggests the Fed is indeed starting to use ...

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