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Goldilocks is back! Markets start 2023 in red-hot form

From stocks to government bonds, markets have had one of their best starts to the year in decades but whether the run lasts depends on a Goldilocks scenario of inflation easing, economic growth holding up and borrowing costs falling. After $14 trillion was wiped off world shares in 2022, $4 trillion has been added back this month. China’s relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions has powered Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index .HSI to double-digit gains, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index enjoyed its best start to the year on record. Widespread optimism ...

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FX Daily: Peak? What peak?

USD: Hawkish Fed can lift the dollar The dollar enters FOMC day after having shown some resilience over the past few sessions, which was likely the consequence of some defensive positioning ahead of key central bank meetings, which kept risk assets capped. Still, the last important piece of data before the Federal Reserve announcement – yesterday’s Employment Cost Index – offered more reasons to think the Fed is indeed close to the peak. Labour costs eased for a fourth consecutive quarter in 4Q, moving from 1.2% to 1.0%, the same ...

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Stocks firm, dollar retreats ahead of Fed decision

Global stocks edged up on Wednesday as signs of slowing U.S. wage growth supported expectations that the Federal Reserve could signal an end to interest-rate hikes at its meeting later in the day. Wall Street indexes had rallied, as had bonds to a lesser extent, while the dollar gave up gains overnight when the Fed’s preferred wages gauge, the U.S. employment cost index, showed a 1% rise last quarter, its smallest increase in a year. The MSCI All-World index was last up 0.2% on the day, having ended January with ...

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U.S. dollar slips against euro ahead of Fed rate decision

The dollar edged lower against the euro on Wednesday ahead of an eagerly-awaited Federal Reserve policy decision with investors hoping the U.S. central bank will signal the end of its interest rate hiking cycle. After a series of jumbo rate hikes in 2022 to tame inflation, the market expects a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase in the Fed benchmark interest rate to 4.75%. It would be the smallest increase since the central bank kicked off its tightening cycle 10 months ago with one the same size. Less clear is whether the central bank ...

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Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening

Recession worries are sending investors into Treasuries and other fixed income investments ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2023, even as stocks start the year with a hopeful rally. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note, which move inversely to prices, have fallen by around 83 basis points from their October high of 4.338% and investors sent $4.89 billion into U.S. bond funds last week, the third straight week of net inflows. The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed’s ...

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STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR 01/02/2023

NASDAQ-Adv: 1,506 Dec: 3,128 NYSE-Adv: 1,189 Dec: 2,858 (Source: Nasdaq)

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Egypt’s net foreign assets climb by $2 billion in December

Egypt’s net foreign assets (NFAs) improved by 47.28 billion Egyptian pounds in December, marking a second month of increases after it allowed its currency to depreciate sharply in October, central bank data showed. NFAs improved to a negative 494.3 billion Egyptian pounds from a negative 541.5 billion in November. This works out to an improvement of about $2.06 billion using end-of-month central bank exchange rates, according to Reuters calculations. Before the October depreciation, the central bank had been relying on NFAs, which represent banking system assets owed by non-residents minus ...

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FX Daily: Bracing for volatility

USD: Some support going into the Fed meeting European data and global risk sentiment drove G10 FX dynamics yesterday. A weak start to the week for risk assets kept the dollar supported, especially during the US session, and signalled some market cautiousness ahead of multiple risk events: the FOMC tomorrow, ECB and Bank of England on Thursday, and US payrolls on Friday. Today, the last few pieces of US data before the Fed decision will be watched quite closely. Particular interest will be on the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which ...

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Asian stocks edge down as investors eye central bank hikes

Asian shares edged down and bonds nursed small losses on Tuesday as investors braced for an eventful week that will include central bank meetings, a slew of earnings reports and key U.S. economic data. Investors broadly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. Interest rate announcements are due on Thursday from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. Meanwhile, more than 100 S&P 500 companies, including Apple ...

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Dollar rises ahead of Fed, but set for fourth monthly drop

The dollar ticked higher on Tuesday ahead of a raft of central bank decisions but remained on track for its fourth consecutive monthly loss. The Federal Reserve will set interest rates on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. Currencies struggled for direction overnight, with the euro slipping against the dollar in early trade in Europe and was last down 0.41% at $1.081. It was “likely some profit-taking ahead of the key event risks just ahead,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia ...

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STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR 31/01/2023

NASDAQ-Adv: 2,586 Dec: 1,928 NYSE-Adv: 2,350 Dec: 1,680 (Source: Nasdaq)

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Investors’ bets against German bonds hit highest since 2015, S&P data shows

Investors have amassed the biggest bet against German government bonds since 2015, as the country issues large amounts of debt and the European Central Bank (ECB) talks tough on inflation. The value of German government bonds on loan rose to 111.1 billion euros ($121 billion) on Jan. 18, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the highest level since December 2015. When investors such as hedge funds want to “short” a bond, they borrow it from a broker and sell it, with the aim of buying it back later ...

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Brazil trying to democratize credit despite high rates, minister says

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Monday the newly inaugurated government would move forward with measures to expand the availability of credit despite the country’s high benchmark interest rate, which he again criticized. Speaking at an event hosted by Fiesp, Brazil’s biggest industry association, he cited eight proposed bills already in Congress that are “ready to be forwarded,” including one that modernizes guarantees for bank credit and should be voted on shortly in the Senate. After meeting with central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto this morning, Haddad said he ...

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Adani firms lose $65 billion in value as U.S. short-seller battle escalates

Most Adani Group shares fell sharply on Monday as the Indian conglomerate’s rebuttal of a U.S. short-seller’s criticism failed to pacify investors, deepening a market rout that has now led to losses of $65 billion in the group’s stock values. Led by Asia’s richest man Gautam Adani, the Indian group has locked horns with Hindenburg Research and on Sunday hit back at the short-seller’s report of last week that flagged concerns about its debt levels and the use of tax havens. Adani said it complied with all local laws and ...

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FX Daily: Stress testing the consensus view

USD: Action kicks off tomorrow The dollar starts the weak in very narrow ranges and not far from the lows of the year. This week will stress test the consensus view amongst investors that i) the Federal Reserve will start to acknowledge easing price pressures and soon end its tightening cycle, ii) China reopening will support global growth and iii) that lower energy prices mean improved European growth prospects. Our macroeconomists discuss many of those themes in their week ahead preview, including links to full previews for this week’s FOMC, ...

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