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Are Stock Investors ‘Irrationally Exuberant’ Again? — Journal Report

There’s a lot of talk these days about the return of “irrational exuberance” — the frothy stock market seen in the internet-stock bubble of the late 1990s. But a close look at the data suggests things are nowhere near that heated. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t fall in coming months, of course. But if it does, it will be for reasons other than speculative excesses rivaling those of two decades ago. The term “irrational exuberance” traces to a now-famous speech in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan, then chairman ...

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China waves the green flag for FX bulls

The Chinese yuan led commodity currencies higher against the dollar on Monday as investors lapped up risky assets on growing expectations of a strong Chinese economic rebound. An index of blue-chip Chinese shares surged to its highest in five years as traders bet on a revival in China, pushing the yuan to its highest levels since March 18 against the dollar. “The economic recovery process looks encouraging (and) looks likely to sustain while the lack of harsh trade headlines has at least eased concerns among investors for now,” said Hao ...

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China needs a bull market to build strength – state media

In a world reshaped by coronavirus, China needs further share market gains to fund a rapidly developing digital economy and strengthen its hand in intensifying power rivalries, state media said on Monday. China’s economy is recovering, while its capital markets are undergoing reform and attracting money from home and abroad, setting the scene for a healthy bull market, the official China Securities Journal said in an editorial on Monday. The commentary from the newspaper, which is affiliated to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, points to government support for a further ...

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Stocks rally to four-week highs as investors bet on China revival

Global stock markets rallied to four-week highs and China’s yuan headed for its best day against the dollar since December on Monday as investors counted on a revival in China to boost global growth, even as surging coronavirus cases delayed business re-openings across the United States. MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks shares across 49 countries, rose 0.7% to its highest since June 6, by midday in London. European shares jumped, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index rising 1.4%. Stocks exposed to China — carmakers, industrials, energy firms and luxury ...

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Sterling falls vs euro, steady vs dollar; support measures in focus

The pound fell against the euro and held steady against the U.S. dollar, as traders looked ahead to this month’s Brexit negotiations and more government support measures expected later this week. Traders expect more clarity by the end of July on whether Britain will agree a trade deal with the European Union. Britain left the EU in January, but it has full access to the bloc during a transition that runs until the end of December. Britain and the EU need to make progress on access to EU financial markets. ...

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China rally triggers gains in European cyclical stocks

European shares headed towards a one-month high on Monday, with a rally in China’s markets setting an upbeat tone as investors banked on the world’s second biggest economy to lead a recovery from the coronavirus-induced slump. The pan-European STOXX 600 climbed 1.6%, as stocks exposed to China, including carmakers, industrials, energy firms and luxury goods makers, gained strongly. The German DAX, London’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 all rose about 2%. China’s blue-chip index jumped over 5%, as investors stocked up on cheap funding to invest in an economy ...

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Dollar steady ahead of services sector data, rising stocks sink yen

The dollar held steady against most currencies on Monday as investors awaited data expected to show the U.S. services sector stopped contracting, which would further lift hopea for an economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The euro moved in a narrow range before economic data from Germany and the eurozone that are also forecast to show a sharp rebound in corporate activity and retail sales, which would ease concerns about the economic outlook. The yen fell against most major currencies as gains in Asian share prices encouraged some risk-on trades. ...

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Top-performing U.S. equity funds this year are betting on a transformed world

U.S. equity funds that were able to best weather the global economic upheaval from the coronavirus pandemic this year are turning to healthcare, e-commerce and electric vehicle stocks as they look ahead to 2021. Few expect a quick economic recovery or containment of the virus that would allow a widespread return to office buildings and schools. Instead, top-performing fund managers say they are positioning their portfolios to benefit from an increase in new forms of technology as businesses and consumers change their habits amid a lingering pandemic. “It’s depressing to ...

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Money market funds see largest redemptions since December 19 – BofA

Money market funds saw their largest redemptions since December 2019 in the week to Wednesday, BofA said in a report on Friday, while $7.1 billion was pulled out of equity funds. BofA said its ‘Bull & Bear’ indicator was no longer in “buy” territory for the first time since March 17. Investors also pumped $15.3 billion into bond funds and $2 billion into gold, the report showed. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Julien Ponthus; editing by Simon Jessop)

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European Stocks Waver With U.S. Markets Shut

European stocks wavered Friday, with trading volumes down as American markets remain shut for the Independence Day holiday and investors take stock of a surge in coronavirus infections in the U.S. that could impede the global economic recovery. The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 drifted between gains and losses. In Asia, most major equity benchmarks closed higher. U.S. stock futures also wobbled, with contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticking up 0.1%. The gauge for blue-chips stocks ended the week up 3.3% ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. ...

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Dollar’s dominance to slowly melt away over coming year

The dollar’s dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock. Despite fears a surge in new COVID-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied – with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998. Caught between bets in favour of ...

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European stocks pause as virus worries offset rebound hopes

European stocks paused on Friday after gains through the week as another record surge in U.S. coronavirus cases dulled optimism from a brisk recovery in China’s services sector. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was largely flat after opening marginally higher, with trading volumes thinned by a U.S. market holiday. Technology stocks led the gains, rising 0.7%, while banks , insurers and oil & gas fell after a strong rally in the previous session. The benchmark index was headed for a 2.8% weekly gain as hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and ...

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Dollar edges up; Aussie and Kiwi gain slightly on U.S. and China data

The dollar edged up in early London trading on Friday and currency traders’ risk appetite was boosted only slightly by better-than-expected jobs data in the United States, as surging coronavirus cases continued to taper market optimism. U.S. payrolls surged on Thursday but the reaction in currencies was limited. Even after two months of job recovery from May, the U.S. economy has recovered just over a third of an historic plunge of 20.787 million jobs lost in April. Broader market sentiment improved in the U.S. session after the jobs data and ...

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INSIGHT-Eyes in the sky: Investors reach for new tools to gauge climate change risk

In the twilight years of past civilisations, astrologers would scour the heavens for signs of impending calamity. In an era where climate change is eroding age-old certainties, a new cast of characters is searching for answers in the sky. A small but growing network of asset managers, academics, start-up entrepreneurs and campaigners are working to harness an armada of recently deployed satellites to better predict the economic impact of global warming. While climate scientists caution that the discipline is in its infancy, advocates say the early findings have one over-riding ...

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Investors are waking up to a possible Biden victory in U.S. presidential election

Investors are increasingly preparing for market volatility ahead of the U.S. presidential election, with some shifting stock positions and selling the dollar, as Democratic contender Joe Biden maintains a lead against President Donald Trump in opinion polls. Plenty can change in the four months before the Nov. 3 vote, and many investors remain focused on whether a resurgence of the coronavirus will damage a nascent U.S. economic rebound. Some money managers, however, are already preparing for the possibility of a Biden victory by betting against the dollar and cutting their ...

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