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Dollar falls to 3-month low vs yen on Powell remarks on Fed slowing

The dollar tumbled more than 1.5% to a three-month low against the yen on Thursday, after comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that U.S. rate hikes could be scaled back “as soon as December” though the euro failed to climb past a major resistance level. The aggressive pace of Federal Reserve rate increases this year has sent the dollar soaring, thanks to higher U.S. yields and fears the central bank would push the U.S. economy into recession in its attempts to combat inflation, but Powell said on Wednesday that “slowing ...

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Dollar dips as Powell says rate hikes may slow

The dollar dipped on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its interest rate hikes “as soon as December.” Still, Powell cautioned that the fight against inflation was far from over and that key questions remain unanswered, including how high rates will ultimately need to rise and for how long. The dollar index was last at 106.41, down 0.40% on the day. The euro rose 0.32% to $1.0364 and the greenback fell 0.17% to 138.43 yen . The ...

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FX Daily: Inflation reality check

USD: Holding pattern Despite geopolitical challenges to the East, it has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets. The trade-weighted dollar index DXY is tracing out a relatively narrow range in the 105.30 to 108.00 area. The next clear catalyst on the agenda is a speech by Fed Chair Powell tonight at 1930CET discussing the economy and the labour market. This comes at a time when the buy-side report two of their top three tail risks as: i) inflation staying high and ii) central banks staying hawkish. ...

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Dollar heads for biggest monthly loss since 2010 ahead of Powell speech

The dollar eased from a one-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while optimism over a possible loosening in China’s COVID restrictions set it on course for its biggest monthly loss since late 2010. Euro zone inflation in November showed the first monthly deceleration since June last year, as harmonised consumer prices rose by just 10% last month, compared with expectations for an increase of 10.4% in November, and against October’s final reading of 10.6%. It is still more than five times the ...

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BoE’s Bailey toughens stance against changing interest payments to banks

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday pressed home the central bank’s opposition to shaking up the way it pays interest on its reserves held by commercial banks, saying that doing so would damage its ability to steer the economy. Some former BoE officials have said the central bank should alter its system of paying interest to banks on its 950 billion pounds ($1.15 trillion) of reserves, the vast majority of which the BoE issued to finance its quantitative easing programme. The idea is that reducing the amount of ...

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FX Daily: Stars aligning for a dollar recovery?

USD: Bracing for a hawkish Powell Risk assets underperformed at the start of this week, with two major variables affecting global sentiment. First, social unrest in China. Investors appear to be gravitating towards the risk-negative narrative of possible instability in the country, despite the fact that this may prompt China to expedite its exit from Covid restrictions – likely a risk-on development. The second element relates to concerns that this week’s events, which include tomorrow’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (where we see a higher likelihood that he will ...

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Yuan rallies on hopes of China COVID policy relief, euro surges

The yuan jumped against the dollar on Tuesday amid hopes of a potential easing in the country’s strict pandemic restrictions following an unprecedented episode of unrest. The euro rose ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. China will speed up COVID-19 vaccinations for elderly people, health officials said on Tuesday, aiming to overcome a key stumbling block in efforts to ease unpopular “zero-COVID” curbs. The offshore yuan surged 0.9% to 7.1850 a dollar. The onshore yuan was up 0.6% at 7.1666 per dollar. “People are getting quite excited about some ...

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Yen, Swiss franc gain on China concerns, dollar drops

The safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen gained on Monday, while the Aussie dollar and Chinese yuan underperformed as protests against COVID restrictions in China knocked market sentiment. The U.S. dollar dipped, meanwhile, which analysts said was unusual as it ran counter to its typical role as a safe haven. Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over China’s stringent COVID restrictions flared for a third day and spread to several cities in the wake of a deadly fire in the country’s far west. ...

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FX Daily: Inverted curves and softer oil prices favour defensive currencies

USD: Fed-speak, prices and employment to dominate The week starts with a focus on events in China as local authorities struggle to battle rising daily case numbers and enforce lockdowns. While a disorderly exit from China’s Covid Zero policy could ultimately prove a positive for global demand, getting to that point will be an exceptionally bumpy ride for the world’s financial markets. As it stands currently, events in China are being read negatively for demand trends, where for example Brent crude and industrial metal prices are under pressure. Brent at ...

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Dollar slips, while yuan slumps on COVID unrest in China

The dollar weakened on Monday as investors weighed up the recent drop in U.S. government bond yields, while anti-government protests in China sent the yuan to a two-week low. Protests have flared across China and spread to several cities in the wake of an apartment fire that killed 10 people in the city of Urumqi in the country’s far west. Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night. China’s onshore yuan finished the domestic session around 0.5% lower at 7.199 per dollar, the lowest close since Nov. ...

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Dollar edges higher in range-bound holiday markets

The dollar crept higher across the board on Friday in a quiet session following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, but remained near multi-month lows as the prospect of the Federal Reserve moderating the pace of its policy tightening weighed on the U.S. currency. “Today has all the indicators of another session dominated by USD consolidation in lieu of any major cross-asset drivers,” said Simon Harvey, senior FX analyst at Monex Europe. “Liquidity is quite limited, nothing major being released in other markets,” Harvey said. The euro slipped 0.2% against the dollar ...

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FX Daily: Dollar approaching support levels

USD: Focus on ‘Cyber Five’ retail sales Today sees another holiday-shortened US session following the Thanksgiving public holiday. Innovative US retailers have come up with the ‘Cyber Five’ sales promotion campaign which stretches from Thursday’s Thanksgiving all the way through to Monday. Expect to hear reports as to how this has gone, although high levels of employment and lower levels of petrol prices (now $4.30/gallon versus a high of $5.50 in June) suggest retail sales may hold up despite talk of the looming 2023 recession. FX markets are becalmed and ...

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Dollar set for weekly loss amid expectations Fed will slow hikes

The U.S. dollar hovered near a three-month low on Friday and was headed for a weekly loss, as the prospect of the Federal Reserve slowing monetary policy tightening as soon as December preoccupied investors. The euro edged up after the GfK institute survey showed German consumer sentiment is expected to stabilise next month with the help of energy measures. The dollar was struggling to make headway after thin trading on Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Risk-sensitive sterling was near a three-month high against the U.S. currency. “We’ve still ...

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Dollar extends losses as Fed minutes signal slower rate hikes

The U.S. dollar extended losses on Thursday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting supported the view that the central bank would downshift and raise rates in smaller steps from its December meeting. The eagerly awaited readout of the Nov. 1-2 meeting showed officials were largely satisfied they could now move in smaller steps, with a 50 basis point rate rise likely next month after four consecutive 75 basis point increases. “The Fed will be happy to move rates by 50 basis points in December and 25 basis ...

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FX Daily: Doves and turkeys

If the November FOMC event failed to convincingly signal a dovish shift, the minutes of that meeting – released yesterday – were surely more effective in that direction. There are two key points in the minutes that markets are interpreting as dovish statements: 1. “A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”. 2. “Various participants noted that […] their assessment of the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Committee’s goals was ...

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