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Daily Currencies Ratings

Upside down world of ‘reverse currency wars’ is real :Mike Dolan

An upside down world of “reverse currency wars” is seeping into the real one. Devotees of Netflix hit “Stranger Things” know well how mayhem and monsters from the show’s foreboding parallel universe seep into regular daily life, with devastating effect. Something similar appears to be happening to one of the dominant economic policy tropes of the past decade. Financial firms, such as Goldman Sachs, have for months warned that long-fought “currency wars” – where countries struggle to prevent a weakening U.S. dollar and overvalued domestic currencies from crimping exports – ...

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Euro falls after weak PMIs weigh; Norway’s crown shines

The euro fell across the board on Thursday after weak German and French PMI data confirmed the eurozone economy was struggling to gain traction, prompting traders to trim aggressive interest rate hike bets by the European Central Bank. The German economy, Europe’s largest, suffered a sharp loss of momentum at the end of the second quarter, with falling exports acting as a drag and economic uncertainty and inflation weighing on domestic demand, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday. The French June flash manufacturing PMI number fell to 51.0 points from ...

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FX Daily: Last hurrah from the Czech National Bank hawks

USD: Powell sticks to his hawkish script The narrative in financial markets seems pretty clear. Inflation needs to be addressed and given that supply-side factors show no signs of easing, central banks are going to have to take the steam out of demand by tightening monetary policy. Whether that slowdown turns into a soft-landing or a recession remains to be seen. In response, equity markets remain under broad-based pressure as growth forecasts are cut and the risk-free rate rises. Commodity prices (having caused a lot of the inflation) would also ...

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Euro, sterling knocked by growth worries and UK inflation at new 40-year high

The euro and sterling fell on Wednesday as investors turned to the safe haven dollar as part of a move away from riskier assets which also saw a stock market rally fizzle out, and after data showed British consumer price inflation hit a new 40-year high. With investors turning nervous again about global growth prospects, the U.S. dollar gained ground on most peers. The yen hit a fresh 24-year low as rising U.S. and European bond yields contrasted with low Japanese interest rates. Sterling was down 0.8% at $1.2198, touching ...

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Morgan Stanley sees stronger yuan on possible US trade tariff relief

Morgan Stanley sees a tactical opportunity for investors to position for a stronger Chinese yuan in the next few weeks amid signs the United States could ease tariffs on Chinese goods. Tariffs imposed by Washington and Beijing on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods put pressure on the yuan when Donald Trump was US president. Joe Biden said in May he was considering cutting tariffs on Chinese goods. “Should the current administration decide to reduce tariffs by $10 billion, it would push CNY 1.8% stronger based on the ...

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Euro higher as ECB officials affirm rate hike plans, new tool

The euro rose on Tuesday, drawing support from the European Central Bank’s plans to raise interest rates to contain inflation, while the yen retested a 24-year low as the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy stance continued to weigh. The euro was 0.5% firmer at $1.0563 after ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, but the size of its September hike is still to be decided, suggesting a larger 50 basis point hike could be on the ...

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FX Daily: Searching for some calm

USD: US national holiday today Equity markets have started the week mostly on the back foot in the Asian session and futures point to a negative open in European markets, while US markets are closed for a national holiday today. It appears that investors still have to fully digest the 75bp rate hike by the Fed last week and above all, the re-pricing higher in US rate expectations. On Wednesday, the FOMC clearly left the door open for another 75bp move in July, but now this prospect is becoming the ...

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Euro rises despite French election as dollar retreats

The euro rose on Monday despite French President Emmanuel Macron losing an absolute majority in the country’s parliamentary election, as the dollar retreated against its major peers after hitting a 20-year peak last week. Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition secured the most seats in the National Assembly but fell well short of an absolute majority needed to control parliament, final results showed. Analysts and traders shrugged off the election results, with the euro rising 0.2% against the dollar to $1.05155. “Even though a Macron presidency and majority in Parliament would be ...

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Speculators raise net long U.S. dollar bets in latest week

Speculators raised their net long U.S. dollar positions in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released. The value of the net long dollar was $14.17 billion in the week ended June 14, compared with a net long of $13.07 billion the previous week. The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from net positions in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian and Australian dollars. Source: Reuters (Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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FX Daily: FX market heats up

USD: US economy can best handle higher rates FX volatility levels remain very high as central bankers battle with high inflation and investors try to position for their next move. The dollar was briefly lower yesterday after the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) surprise hike raised expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) would follow suit with ‘more forceful’ (that phrase has cropped up a lot recently in central bank circles) monetary policy. We discuss the BoE later, but barring a surprise announcement from BoJ Governor ...

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Asia FX bears hit record high on hawkish Fed, China growth worries

Bearish bets on several Asian currencies hit a record high in the face of rising U.S. interest rates that supported the dollar, while repeated COVID-19 lockdowns threatened to disrupt economic recovery in China, a Reuters poll found on Thursday. Short positions in the South Korean won, the Singapore dollar SGD=, the Malaysian ringgit, and the Philippine peso hit their highest on record, according to the fortnightly poll of 10 respondents. The greenback was perched at a two-decade high this week, as red-hot U.S. inflation data increased the likelihood of more ...

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Yen tanks 1.9% after BOJ sticks to stimulus, franc climbs again

The Japanese yen fell as much as 1.9% on Friday after the Bank of Japan bucked a wave of tightening and stuck with its ultra-low interest rate stance, as currency markets looked set for another volatile session after a spate of rate hikes this week. The Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision to raise rates by 0.5% continued to reverberate through markets, with the euro losing half a percent and the franc heading back towards two-month highs hit immediately after Thursday’s announcement. Currency markets, facing the biggest run of monetary policy ...

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JPMorgan sees dollar topping 140 yen as policy diverges more

The U.S. dollar will soon rise above 140 yen as the Federal Reserve possibly gets even more hawkish on rates while the Bank of Japan digs in its heels on ultra-easy policy, according to a forecast by JPMorgan strategists. The dollar reached the highest since October 1998 at 135.60 yen on Wednesday, with markets now expecting the Fed to tighten policy by 75 basis points at a meeting later in the day and again next month, a scale of moves not seen since 1984. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko ...

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FX Daily: Surprise hike from the SNB today?

USD: Expect dollar to remain bid on dips As James Knightley discusses in his review of the Fed meeting, the Fed looks likely to go again with a 75bp hike in July. The sharp adjustment in short-dated US yields and the dollar after Powell said that 75bp adjustments would not be common looks more a function of market positioning than any serious re-assessment of the Fed rate cycle. After all, Powell also said he wants the policy rate at 3.00-3.50% by year-end (3% is pretty high for a reserve currency) ...

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Dollar steadies as Fed relief falters

The dollar found some footing in Asia on Thursday as initial relief that the Federal Reserve did not go further than expected in hiking rates began to fade in the face of an aggressive outlook. Markets had anticipated the Fed’s 75 basis point hike on Wednesday and priced in several more after a surprisingly hot inflation reading last week. But the dollar lurched lower after Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference, before pausing during Asia trade. It last bought a euro at $1.0440 and drew support from U.S. Treasury yields, which ...

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