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Daily Currencies Ratings

Japan premier warns of negative impact on companies from weak yen

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Tuesday the government will scrutinise the economic impact of any further declines in the yen, which risk hurting corporate profits. The rare warning over the potential disadvantage of a weak yen by Kishida, who took over as prime minister last week, underscores growing concern among policymakers about the damage rising input costs could have on Japan’s fragile recovery. “If the yen weakens further, it will boost exports. On the other hand, it will lead to a rise in costs for companies through higher ...

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Hedge funds’ dollar policy: longer for longer

The dollar is at a crossroads after a 5% rally in four months, as many investors assess how much of the Fed’s bond purchase taper and future rate hikes are priced in, and if any further increase in U.S. yields will be for “good” or “bad” reasons. Not hedge funds though, who continue to hoover up dollars. If central banks’ post-2008 interest rate policy could generally be summed up as ‘lower for longer’, speculators’ stance on the dollar now appears to be ‘longer for longer’. The latest positioning data from ...

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FX Positioning: Euro moves into net-short territory

Dollar positioning on the rise again CFTC data show that speculative positioning on the dollar swung further towards overbought territory in the week ending 5 October, when USD net aggregate long positions against reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding SEK and NOK) reached 13.9% of open interest, the highest level since November 2019. All G10 currencies except for JPY (which experienced moderate short-squeezing) and AUD (whose positioning remained unchanged) saw a quite sizeable drop in net positioning in the week ending 5 October. Such a sharp increase in the dollar’s ...

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Dollar strength holds back Asian FX; rupee bears re-emerge

Investors raised short bets on most Asian emerging currencies, a fortnightly Reuters poll found, as a slew of factors including U.S. rate-hike expectations, rising inflation and signs of slowing global economic growth boosted the dollar. Long positions on the Singapore dollar SGD=, Taiwan’s dollar TWD=TP and the Indian rupee INR=IN were reversed, while bearish views on the South Korean won KRW=KFTC hit a two-year peak, the poll of 12 respondents showed. The Indonesian rupiah IDR= was the only currency with a bullish trend, although long bets were almost halved. The ...

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Dollar nears 3-year high against yen as markets retain bets on Fed taper

The dollar rose to its highest in nearly three years versus the yen on Monday as investors remained confident the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of its massive bond-buying next month despite softer U.S. payrolls figures. That jobs data released on Friday pushed U.S. bond yields higher, and so the yen, which is known to be most sensitive to yield differentials, slipped to as low as 112.725 yen per dollar JPY= in Asian hours on Monday – a level last seen in December 2018. “The dollar could rise ...

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U.S. dollar net long bets jump to largest since mid-June 2019 -CFTC, Reuters data

U.S. dollar net longs in the latest week surged to their highest level in more than two years, according to Reuters calculations and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $22.89 billion in the week ended Oct. 5, compared with $16.37 billion in the previous week. U.S. dollar positioning has been net long for 12 straight weeks after being net short for 16 months. U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the Japanese ...

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Rate trap? BoE and sterling snared by rate frenzy

If the Bank of England is bluffing on its rate raising plans, it increasingly risks triggering a trap door for sterling. All central banks are at a tricky point, gradually accepting that ‘transient’ post-pandemic inflation will last longer than first thought as winter energy costs heat up and economies cool. Whether fuel squeezes amplify a slowdown is a key point. But with longer-term inflation expectations building, market pressure on policymakers to wrest back control and retain credibility in their goals is mounting. For many, this is fertile ground for policy ...

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Dollar edges higher as jobs data eyed for Fed policy clues

The dollar edged higher versus major peers on Friday but within a narrow range as traders awaited clues on the pace of Federal Reserve policy normalization from a monthly payrolls report. The U.S. Dollar Currency Index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, rose 0.1% to 94.278, keeping within sight of last week’s one-year peak of 94.504. The dollar gained 0.26% to 111.91 yen JPY=EBS, and touched 111.93, the highest level this month, helped by higher Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting 1.6010% for ...

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China Sept forex reserves fall to lowest since April

China’s foreign exchange reserves fell almost 1% in September from the previous month, official data showed on Thursday, hitting their lowest level since April as the dollar gained ground against a basket of other major currencies. The country’s foreign exchange reserves – the world’s largest – stood at $3.201 trillion at the end of September, data from the central bank’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed. That was lower that the $3.225 trillion forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts and down from $3.232 trillion at the end of August. ...

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Dollar near 14-month high to euro, focus on inflationDollar near 14-month high to euro, focus on inflation

The dollar held close to a 14-month high against the euro on Thursday, as a surge in energy prices raised the risk for the U.S. Federal Reserve to act sooner to normalise policy. The U.S. currency was slightly lower at $1.1563 per euro after strengthening to $1.1529 on Wednesday for the first time since July of last year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was little changed at 94.153 following a nearly 0.5% climb over the past two sessions. That took ...

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Dollar edges up as energy surge drives inflation worries

The dollar rose on Wednesday amid nervousness that surging energy prices could spur inflation and interest rate hikes, and as traders awaited U.S. jobs data for clues on the timing of Federal Reserve policy tightening. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its official cash rate for the first time in seven years, but its resolutely hawkish tone only seemed to add to expectations that the Fed would follow suit and the kiwi dipped as U.S. yields rose. The kiwi NZD=D3 was last 0.9% weaker at $0.6891 and the Australian ...

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Dollar inches toward one-year high as payrolls test looms

The U.S. dollar edged back toward a one-year high versus major peers on Tuesday ahead of a key payrolls report at the end of the week that could boost the case for the Federal Reserve to start tapering stimulus as soon as next month. The safe-haven greenback was also supported by an equity sell-off that spread from Wall Street to Asia. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was among the biggest decliners, with the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterating it doesn’t expect to raise interest rates until 2024 after keeping policy steady, ...

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Dollar net longs rose again in September

FX Positioning: Back to pre-pandemic CFTC data on G10 FX speculative positioning show markets turning increasingly bullish on the dollar in September. The aggregate USD net long positions against reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding SEK and NOK) were worth 10.8% of open interest as of 28 September, the highest since the last week of February 2020 (before the Covid-19 spread started to seriously hit financial markets). Unlike back in February 2020, when the EUR was in oversold territory, the common currency had – as of 28 September – about ...

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Dollar surge both symptom and catalyst of world slowdown

A surging U.S. dollar signals for some the clearest sign of an ebbing money tide and an abrupt slowdown of the world economy over the remainder of 2021 at least. Disruptions from new strains of COVID, severe goods and labor supply bottlenecks, fuel price squeezes, power outages, slowing credit growth and the gradual withdrawal of central bank liquidity have drained the post-pandemic recovery of momentum. Global economic data surprises all turned negative in August and continue to miss forecasts at a rate not seen since 2020, prompting some banks to ...

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Dollar snaps 2-day losing streak, volatility rises as risk aversion grows

The dollar edged higher on Monday after two consecutive sessions of losses as hedge funds ramped up their holdings as widening concerns about the Chinese property sector and resilient U.S. Treasury yields boosted the appeal of the greenback. After spending the second quarter of 2021 on the back foot the dollar has received a fresh boost in recent weeks, climbing to its highest levels in a year against its rivals =USD last week as top investment banks have revised up their forecasts. Citigroup strategists expect more upside in the dollar ...

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