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Daily Currencies Ratings

Dollar holds losses as Fed minutes signal slower rate hikes

The U.S. dollar held onto losses on Thursday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting supported the view that the central bank would downshift and raise rates in smaller steps from its December meeting. The eagerly awaited readout of the Nov. 1-2 meeting showed officials were largely satisfied they could now move in smaller steps, with a 50 basis point rate rise likely next month after four consecutive 75 basis point increases. “The Fed will be happy to move rates by 50 basis points in December and 25 ...

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Dollar down as U.S. data weighs; traders await Fed minutes

The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, after data showed U.S. business activity weakened further in November and as traders remained on edge ahead of the impending release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. “Fed minutes will be the focus for today,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies. “This is the meeting where Powell had a relatively hawkish press conference in which he indicated that if there had been an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) at this meeting they would have definitely come ...

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FX Daily: Glass half full

USD: Ready to scan the Fed minutes Global risk sentiment has rebounded after absorbing the news about China’s new Covid wave. One factor driving the rally has been increasing speculation that China is loosening its regulatory grip on the tech sector, essentially offering a lifeline to tech shares which have gone through some rough months. This sharp recovery in sentiment appears a bit premature in our view. While there is no clear evidence that the regulatory crackdown has taken a decisive turn (only yesterday, it was reported that China will ...

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Dollar on edge ahead of Fed minutes, kiwi jumps

The U.S. dollar held firm on Wednesday ahead of the release of closely-watched minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of a record rate rise to curb rampant inflation. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six counterparts, was broadly flat at 107.1, after shedding 0.65% the previous day amid a pick-up in sentiment that supported riskier currencies. The dollar has broadly rallied against every major currency this year, boosted by supersized rate hikes aimed ...

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Sterling climbs as dollar rally wanes

The pound rose on Tuesday after falling in the previous session, as the dollar retreated following three days of gains. The greenback, typically the driver of global currency markets, rose sharply on Monday as a jump in COVID-19 cases in China sparked growth fears and sent investors towards the safe-haven currency, causing the pound to drop 0.59%. Yet the U.S. currency gave up some of the previous day’s gains against its major peers on Tuesday, with sterling rising 0.48% to $1.187. “The general picture is the dollar is just drifting ...

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FX Daily: Sprinting back to defense

USD: Recovery mode China’s Covid situation has suddenly returned as a very central driver for global markets this week. Over 27,000 cases were reported today, with the city of Guangzhou being the new epicentre of the outbreak, and local authorities are reportedly scrambling to impose those same restrictive measures that appeared a thing of the past after recent signals from the central government that the zero-Covid policy would be gradually abandoned. In FX, this has fuelled a return to the dollar. After all, optimism on China’s outlook was one of ...

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Dollar steadies as China tightens COVID curbs

The dollar steadied on Tuesday after rallying the previous day as investors flocked to the safe haven currency on worries over China’s COVID flare-ups, while bitcoin came under pressure after fears of fresh contagion from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. The euro was up 0.14% to $1.0258 after an 0.8 %loss on Monday, sterling rose 0.19% to $1.1838, partially reversing its 0.6% fall, and the dollar was at 141.86 yen down 0.18% after a 1.2% gain. “What’s going on in China is going to take centre stage,” said Joseph ...

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FX Outlook 2023: The dollar’s high wire act

The dollar’s highwire act Having risen around 25% since the summer of 2021, the dollar has recently taken quite the tumble. For 2023, the question is wheth-er this is the start of a new bear trend or whether the factors that drove the dollar to those highs still have a say. Given that the most liquid FX pair, EUR/USD, was such a large driver of global FX trends in 2022, we use a scenario approach to look at a range of 2023 EUR/USD outcomes – derived from the expected volatility ...

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Lebanon central bank to use forex rate of 15,000 pounds per dollar as of Feb 1

Lebanon’s central bank will adopt an exchange rate of 15,000 Lebanese pounds per U.S. dollar as of Feb. 1 as part of a process to unify the country’s multiple exchange-rate system, Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh said on Monday. The central bank’s official rate is currently set at 1,500 pounds per U.S. dollar, a rate that has become all but defunct since a 2019 financial implosion that has seen the currency lose more than 95% of its value. The parallel market exchange rate was hovering at around 39,000 pounds ...

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FX Daily: Corrective forces fade

USD: FOMC minutes in focus this week The dollar is continuing to crawl higher after its sharp sell-off earlier this month. Driving that sharp sell-off had been a combination of softer US CPI data and some optimism emerging from China regarding Beijing’s stance on Covid Zero and the property market. On the latter, it seems that the recent outbreak of Covid in some Chinese cities is still prompting similarly restrictive measures and that the Covid Zero policy has yet to undergo wholesale changes. Additionally, regulatory forbearance on the Chinese property ...

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U.S. dollar ‘true’ peak still a couple of quarters away -Goldman

Investors anxious to determine when the dollar should hit its peak may have to wait a few more quarters, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a research note. Based on historical cycles, Goldman said, peaks in the dollar are typically associated with a “trough in measures of U.S. and global growth”, and an easing Federal Reserve. A dollar top would still appear to be “several quarters away,” said Goldman, noting it does not expect the Fed to embark on easing until 2024. It added that U.S. growth is not expected to ...

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Dollar rises as China COVID worries spur safe-haven buying

The U.S. dollar was firmly higher against major currencies on Monday, as rising COVID-19 cases in China led to new restrictions there and weighed on global investor sentiment. China is battling numerous COVID flare ups. Two deaths were reported in Beijing on Sunday, and the city’s most populous district urged residents to stay at home on Monday. The new cases have cast doubt on hopes that the government could soon ease its tough restrictions. That has boosted the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven in times of global ...

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Asia FX Outlook 2023: Better positioned

Local and international factors are still uncertain For all the effort that goes into forecasting Asian exchange rates, the last year has shown that apart from some short-lived deviations, dollar strength was the principal driving factor and EUR/USD provided perhaps the best clue as to both direction and magnitude. Within this period, there were times when other drivers took over – energy dependence was pivotal during the period immediately following the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the Indian rupee (INR) and Thai baht (THB) suffering badly while the Indonesian rupiah ...

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G10 FX Outlook 2023: Less trend, more volatility

The final quarter of 2022 has seen a breakdown in the otherwise orderly dollar bull trend – a trend which had been worth 5% per quarter over the first nine months of the year. That dollar rally had largely been driven by a Federal Reserve wanting to take policy into restrictive territory – a trend only exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. For all the current discussions about peak dollar and peak macro pessimism, we think it is still worth examining whether the conditions will be in place to deliver ...

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Good money after bad? Crypto still seems to be attracting punters: McGeever

If a series of high-profile multibillion-dollar blow-ups, alleged fraud and a 75% collapse in the price of your biggest asset doesn’t shake faith in the crypto universe, it’s hard to imagine what will. Even though more than half the money ever invested in bitcoin would now be underwater if it had stayed, crypto monitors insist it’s somehow still attracting punters. Cryptocurrency and bitcoin investors seem to be showing few signs of dumping their crypto-related assets, stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite the latest wave of turmoil and scandal to crash ...

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