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Daily Currencies Ratings

Euro edges higher as risk appetite picks up, focus on ECB meeting

The euro edged higher on Monday as risk appetite picked up while investors awaited a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later this week. European shares also rose, helped by miners and luxury stocks as China eased more COVID-19 restrictions. Markets, which have already priced in several ECB rate increases and the end of bond-buying stimulus, want more clarity on what comes after. Hedge funds are already loaded up on euros. U.S. futures market data shows speculators are holding their most significant net-long euro position in 12 weeks. “We expect ...

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FX Daily: Different speeds

USD: Gearing up for a re-strengthening Risk assets are starting the week on a strong footing, with Asian equities trading in positive territory and Western stock futures also in the green. Last week’s legacy in global markets was the predominant message that the US growth story remains on solid ground for now, and that an even tighter than expected jobs market all but confirms aggressive Fed tightening. The primary implication of this narrative in FX is – in our view – that the dollar’s downside risks have shrunk, as speculation ...

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Euro edges higher as risk appetite picks up, focus on ECB meeting

The euro edged higher on Monday as risk appetite picked up while investors awaited a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later this week. Asian shares joined U.S. stock futures in making cautious gains ahead of U.S. inflation data this week. Markets, which have already priced in several ECB rate increases and the end of bond-buying stimulus, want more clarity on what comes after. Hedge funds are already loaded up on euros. U.S. futures market data shows speculators are holding their most significant net-long euro position in 12 weeks. The ...

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Dollar edges lower ahead of U.S. job data

The dollar edged lower on Friday as risk appetite picked up ahead of U.S. jobs data later in the day. Equities rose as investors hoped U.S. data might sway the Federal Reserve to slow its current aggressive pace of interest rate hikes over the coming months. The ADP National Employment Report on Thursday showed U.S. payrolls rising at a slower-than-expected pace last month. Trading on Friday is quieter with London markets shut for a public holiday. The dollar eased 0.1% to 101.75 against a basket of other major currencies, while ...

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Asia FX bears retreat slightly, China concerns persist

Bearish bets on Asian currencies reduced on signs that China’s economic pain may abate with easing of COVID-19 curbs, but analysts were still wary of future lockdowns and the direction of U.S. monetary policy, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Short positions on South Korea’s won and the Taiwanese dollar were at their lowest since late-February, while those on the Chinese yuan slipped to a six-week low, according to the fortnightly survey of 11 respondents. Investor sentiment improved, compared with a fortnight ago, as major Chinese cities including Shanghai rolled ...

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Euro snaps recent run of losses, Swiss franc rallies on inflation surge

By 0745 GMT, the dollar was down 0.3% against a basket of rivals =USD, while the euro climbed 0.4% to $1.0689 EUR=EBS, following two days of losses. The yen reversed its early weakness and was last at 129.87 yen per dollar, up slightly on the day JPY=EBS. Data this week, stronger than expected in the United States, has reaffirmed the U.S. economy is likely to hold up better than rivals even as the global economy slows. “Robust U.S. data and an ensuing extinguishing of hopes that the Fed would need ...

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FX Daily: Don’t rule out a 75bp hike by the Bank of Canada today

USD: Finding fresh support The dollar has continued to find some support this morning, benefiting from a general sell-off in the bond market, the impact of the EU oil embargo on Russia, and better-than-expected US data (consumer confidence yesterday was a case in point). The past few days seem to have conveyed the message that the Fed’s tightening cycle is based on a sturdier growth story than Europe’s (especially after the Russian oil embargo) and the speculation around a September Fed pause is being kept at bay for now. Ultimately, ...

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FX traders should consider the extremes they are witnessing

Inflation has surged far above target triggering a very hawkish reaction by the U.S. central bank while central banks in Japan and Switzerland pursue super-easy policies. Energy prices continue to surge and are doing so quickly, negatively impacting the currencies of nations that import, which happen to be those with super easy policies, while supporting the currencies of big producers like the United States. There may never have been an extreme situation like this and it may prove prudent to hedge the risk of currency moves that could be extreme ...

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Dollar rises against euro, hits two-week high vs yen

The euro edged further away from a monthly high on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar nudged higher, lifted by higher Treasury yields as global inflation worries flared anew. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, including the euro, rose 0.2% to 101.96, extending on Tuesday’s gains, when data showed euro-area consumer inflation soaring to a record. The euro was down 0.2% against the greenback, continuing to edge back from a one-month high of $1.0787, reached on Monday, when national CPI readings from the euro zone indicated ...

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FX Daily: More grist to the stagflation mill

USD: Dollar finds its footing The dollar appears to have found some support on the last day of May. US yields have started to turn higher again, which looks both a belated reaction to Friday’s strong US data, some very hawkish comments by the Fed’s Christopher Waller, and Brent now breaking well above $120/bl on the news that EU leaders will be pushing ahead with a Russian oil embargo after all. The reason that the dollar is not firmer probably owes to the fact that bond yields are rising around ...

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Euro set for best monthly gain in a year ahead of inflation data

The euro drifted lower on Tuesday, but was still set for its best month in a year ahead of red-hot inflation data that will boost expectations of interest rate increases from the European Central Bank (ECB). German consumer prices jumped a whopping 8.7% and Spanish inflation rates resumed their upward march, setting the stage for more record eurozone aggregate inflation data for May, with a Reuters poll expecting a print of 7.7%. With the European Union closing ranks to cut 90% of Russian oil imports by the end of this ...

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FX Daily: Corrective forces continue

USD: Interest in dollar-funded carry emerges The dollar is now about 3% off its highs in early May. Driving that correction has certainly been the view that the Fed could pause its tightening cycle after hiking 50bp in both June and July. The Fed funds rate for the 21 September meeting is now priced at 2.15%. At the start of May, it was priced at 2.35%. Clearly, US data and Fed speak will have a big say in the pricing of that Fed cycle. Today US markets are closed for ...

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Dollar slides toward monthly loss as Fed bets ease

The dollar was under pressure in Asia on Monday and was headed for its first monthly drop in five months as investors have scaled back bets that rising U.S. rates will spur further gains and as fears of a global recession have receded a little. The week ahead is full of data that could provide clues on the outlook for global growth, U.S. interest rates and the dollar with Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index figures, U.S. jobs numbers and growth data in resource bellwether Australia. Trade was likely to be light ...

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FX Daily: Dollar’s downside risks are shrinking

USD: Bearish arguments are not very strong The dollar is set to face a second consecutive week of losses against all G10 currencies, as yesterday’s very positive session in US equities helped Asian equities trade in the green along with most European stock index futures. While the risk sentiment channel has, by and large, remained the primary driver of FX moves, the market’s tentative speculation about a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle in September is surely contributing to keeping the dollar soft. In the past week, we have seen ...

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Dollar sinks to one-month low as Fed rate hike bets ease

The U.S. dollar sank to a one-month low versus major rivals on Friday as traders lowered Federal Reserve rate hike expectations amid signs the central bank might slow or even pause its tightening cycle in the second half of the year. The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, fell as low as 101.43 for the first time since April 25. A rally in Asian stocks also sapped demand for the greenback as a haven. Against the euro EUR=EBS, the U.S. currency slipped to ...

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