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Daily Currencies Ratings

Explainer: Crypto lender Genesis plagued by contagion concern after FTX blowup

The uncertain future of Genesis Global Capital, one of the biggest crypto lenders, is fueling concern that the recent collapse of crytpo exchange FTX is having a spillover effect on other players in the highly interconnected market. Genesis, which brokers digital assets for financial institutions like hedge funds and asset managers, had almost $3 billion in total active loans at the end of the third quarter. On Wednesday, its crypto lending arm stopped making new loans and blocked customers from taking out money because of what it called “unprecedented market ...

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FX Daily: The new standard in FX?

USD: Bearish sentiment cooling off As recently discussed in our 2023 FX Outlook, we are quite sceptical of a clean bear dollar trend from the current levels. This week’s moves in the FX market may have offered a glimpse of what we expect to be the main theme in G10 FX next year: less trend, more volatility. The dollar has stabilised after the big correction, but regional stories triggered significant swings in some crosses. Scandinavian currencies fell by around 2% this week, hit by equity volatility and geopolitical tensions, while ...

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U.S. dollar has peaked due to softer inflation, jobs -Barclays, Deutsche

The U.S. dollar may have already seen its highest levels for the year given growing evidence of slowing inflation and a weakening labor market in the world’s largest economy, Barclays (LON:BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) wrote in research notes. Apart from domestic factors, Barclays said the improving European energy supply and demand situation as well as China’s reopening expectations are good enough reasons to unwind some of the risk premium that has supported the dollar this year. Barclays has advanced the downturn in the dollar into the fourth quarter this ...

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Dollar heads for weekly gain as Fed pushes back on pivot

The dollar eased on Friday, but was still headed for its largest weekly gain in a month, after Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to raising U.S. interest rates more than markets currently anticipate. It fell against the pound, which edged higher after a volatile session on Thursday following Britain’s budget for tax rises and spending cuts. St Louis Fed President James Bullard was the latest Fed official to push back on market hopes for a pause in interest rate hikes, saying that even on dovish assumptions, the funds rate ...

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Asia FX bears ease on hopes of less hawkish Fed, China reopening

Short bets on major Asian currencies were scaled back amid hopes the region’s economic outlook would benefit from China easing its COVID-19 restrictions and that the Federal Reserve would temper its rate hikes, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Bearish positions in China’s yuan CNY=CFXS and Thailand’s baht THB=TH were at their lowest since April, while market participants turned marginally bullish on the Singapore dollar SGD=, a fortnightly poll of 11 analysts showed. A major catalyst behind the return of some optimism was the weakness in the U.S. dollar after ...

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Sterling softens on euro, falls on dollar after British budget

Sterling weakened on Thursday after British finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced a budget with a string of tax increases and tighter public spending, saying the economy was already in recession and set to contract next year. The euro rose 0.4% against the pound to 87.61 pence , while the British currency tumbled more sharply against the dollar , down 1% to $1.179, though this also reflected the dollar’s strength against other major currencies. Outlining a 55-billion-pound plan – almost half from tax rises – to fix the public finances, Hunt ...

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The US dollar’s retreat looks likely to be temporary

Aside from the potential for less hawkish Fed policy, the dollar has also been undermined by a broad recovery in market confidence—with the currency getting less of a boost from safe-haven flows. A mild winter so far has made it easier for European nations to fill up gas stores. Meanwhile, optimism over China has been improved by the government’s decision to unveil policies to support the nation’s struggling property market and modifications to its policies to combat the spread of COVID-19. But we think it’s too early to expect sustained ...

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Dollar treads water as U.S. economy sends mixed signals, sterling rises

The dollar was little changed on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound rose ahead of the government’s budget update. The greenback has tumbled in recent weeks as inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials have suggested that the central bank can soon slow the pace of its punishing interest rate hikes. Yet the dollar paused on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.039, after hitting ...

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Crypto broker Genesis suspends loan redemptions; Bankman-Fried, celebrities sued

Crypto lender Genesis Global Capital suspended redemptions on Wednesday citing the failure of crypto exchange FTX, while court papers showed FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried faces legal action, as its sudden collapse ripples across the industry. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States on Friday in the highest-profile crypto blowup to date, after traders pulled $6 billion from the platform in three days and rival exchange Binance abandoned a rescue deal. Liquidators in the Bahamas said late on Tuesday they were challenging the validity of U.S. bankruptcy proceedings, adding ...

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FX Daily: Between geopolitics and a position squeeze

USD: Buy-side wants and needs a weaker dollar Realised levels of FX volatility remain near the highs of the year. For example, one-month EUR/USD realised volatility, at 14%, is back to levels not seen since April 2020. The dominant near-term theme is the aggressive position adjustment in FX, perhaps more so than in other asset classes, on the back of softer US price data. The dollar took another sharp leg lower on yesterday’s release of soft October PPI data. Clearly, US price data is the hottest commodity in the macro ...

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Dollar gains fizzle out as traders reassess risks from Poland

The dollar on Wednesday traded just above multi-month lows against most majors as flows that had supported the safe-haven currency slowed after Joe Biden said a missile that caused an explosion in Poland may not have been fired from Russia. NATO-member Poland and Ukraine said on Tuesday the blast that killed two on the Polish side of their border was likely caused by a Russian-made rocket, raising concerns of an escalation in the war. However, Biden said the weapon was probably not fired by Russia, although the investigation was ongoing. ...

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Speculators’ net long USD bets fall to a more than 1-year low -CFTC, Reuters

Speculators’ net long bets on the U.S. dollar fell in the latest week to the smallest position in more than a year, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Monday. The value of the net long dollar position was $2.36 billion for the week ended Nov. 8, compared with a net long position of $3.08 billion for the prior week. U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the Japanese yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and ...

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Fed’s Barr: Concerned about blowback to financial system from crypto

Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s top financial regulatory official, on Tuesday said he is concerned about risks from the non-bank sector, including cryptocurrencies, for which the U.S. central bank and other regulators have poor visibility. “We’re concerned about the risks that we don’t know about in the non-bank sector,” Barr said in response to a question during an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. “That includes obviously crypto activity, but more broadly risks in parts of the financial system where we don’t have good visibility, we don’t have good transparency, ...

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FX Daily: Extra dose of dollar weakness

USD: A bit more pain The dollar showed tentative signs of recovery yesterday, but appears to be lacking any strong support at the moment. While we don’t buy the one-way traffic, and the USD-bearish narrative in the longer run, there may be extra downside room for the greenback this week. With the US calendar being rather light, the two main drivers of global sentiment are China and Fed speakers. With respect to the first, there are two aspects to consider: data and diplomatic talks. As discussed here, Chinese industrial production ...

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Dollar rebounds as Fed officials say hikes to continue; yen slumps

The U.S. dollar climbed versus the yen and stayed firm against other major peers on Tuesday as more Federal Reserve officials made the case for even tighter U.S. monetary policy. The greenback edged up against sterling and hovered more than 1% above its two-month trough to the euro after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday echoed weekend comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller that interest rates need to keep rising to battle inflation, although potentially at a slower pace. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts ...

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