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Daily Currencies Ratings

Dollar finds footing as traders look to ECB

The dollar found support on Tuesday as investors awaited a European Central Bank meeting and U.S. data to gauge the policy outlook, while the Aussie blipped briefly higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia stuck with its tapering plans. The greenback held the euro EUR= below $1.19 at $1.1872, was steady on the yen JPY= at 109.79 per dollar and drifted a little firmer on the Australian and New Zealand dollars at the end of the Asia session. The dollar index =USD sat at 92.200. The Reserve Bank of Australia ...

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China state banks bought dollars on Friday to drag yuan lower

China’s major state-owned banks were seen buying U.S. dollars in the onshore spot market late on Friday, pushing the yuan lower, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The onshore spot yuan strengthened on Friday after disappointing U.S. jobs data pushed the dollar lower. The move by the state banks was seen as an effort to rein in rapid yuan appreciation, with one source saying the aim was to ensure the currency closed on the weaker side of the 6.45 per dollar level. One of the sources said ...

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Dollar shakes off jobs report blues in big central bank week

The U.S. dollar on Monday clawed back some of the losses sustained after last week’s poor U.S. jobs report, helped by firmer U.S. Treasury yields in a big week for major central banks. The dollar index =USD, which measures the currency against six rivals, edged 0.1% higher to 92.23, after dipping to 91.941 for the first time since Aug. 4 on Friday, when a closely watched U.S. labour report showed the world’s largest economy created the fewest jobs in seven months in August. But the weak jobs report did not ...

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Dollar hits one-month lows before payrolls test

The dollar sank to its lowest in almost a month against major rivals on Friday, ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report that could spur the Federal Reserve to an earlier tapering of stimulus. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was little changed at 92.227 after earlier touching 92.151 for the first time since Aug. 5. The euro was also mostly flat at $1.1876, after hitting the highest since Aug. 4 at $1.1884, supported by regional inflation at a decade high and hawkish rhetoric from European ...

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Sterling driven higher by dollar weakness, still stuck below $1.38

Sterling edged higher on Thursday, driven by dollar weakness after disappointing U.S. labour data, while traders waited for the fuller jobs report on Friday to give new momentum to currency markets. So far this week, the pound has been propelled by moves in other currencies, in the absence of UK-specific data releases or Bank of England speakers. The dollar was close to its weakest in nearly one month, after U.S. ADP payroll numbers were lower than expected. Currency markets were generally quiet in the Asian session, as investors waited for ...

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Yuan investors might be seeing upside of China crackdown

Curiously, FX traders seem to be lining up to sell USD/CNH, despite recent China data misses and intensifying state intervention in key economic sectors . The obvious signs of slowing growth might, counterintuitively, be fuelling their convictions. Dismal data validates analysts’ calls for further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China – increasingly a consensus view . The broadening scrutiny by Chinese regulators into various industries, as part of President Xi Jinping’s push for “common prosperity”, has not fazed yuan bulls; paradoxically giving them more confidence that stimulus is ...

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FX Daily: Steadying EUR/USD gives risk room to rally

USD: Taking a back seat After much focus last week on the Jackson Hole speech and what it means for Fed tapering, attention has turned more to Europe this week. Below we discuss what ECB commentary may mean for EUR/USD short term. For the dollar itself, we still favour a benign environment. Here, even a strong nonfarm payrolls figure on Friday (look out for ADP jobs data today expected at +638k) does not mean the dollar has to rally hard. Yes, it can cement views that the Fed may announce ...

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Euro settles near one-month high after inflation jolt

The euro consolidated gains below a near one-month high on Wednesday as a higher-than-expected inflation reading pumped up bond yields, forcing investors to cover their bearish bets on the single currency. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone inflation increased to 3% year-on-year in August, the highest in a decade, above the European Central Bank’s 2% target and a 2.7% forecast in a Reuters poll. The reading sent yields on German benchmark debt to their highest levels since late July. GVD/EUR The jump in bond yields forced traders to halt their ...

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FX Positioning: USD longs rose again before Jackson Hole

USD shorts rapidly evaporated in the summer CFTC positioning data to 24 August shows how the dollar moved into a net-long position (+6% of open interest vs G10), after most of the short positions were trimmed on the back of worsening global risk sentiment and rising expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy normalisation over the summer. The table below provides a snapshot of G10 positioning three days before Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on 27 August. All currencies except for the Swiss franc had either a neutral or ...

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Dollar weakness pushes sterling to two-week high

The pound rose to its highest in two weeks on Tuesday, extending gains against the dollar which weakened after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not signal a timeline for a policy shift. At the highly-anticipated Jackson Hole economic conference on Friday, Powell offered no indication about when the central bank planned to cut its asset purchases beyond saying it could be “this year”. The comments knocked the U.S. dollar and pushed up the pound. Sterling extended these gains on Tuesday as the dollar fell further. At 0738 GMT, ...

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Most Asian equities, currencies firm as Fed taper fears wane

Most Asian emerging stock markets gained on Monday, led by Indonesia, India and Singapore, as U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium calmed fears over the tapering timetable. Among currencies in the region, South Korea’s won and the Malaysian ringgit led the rise while the Indian rupee also logged strong gains, as the dollar nursed losses after Powell laid out on Friday a slower-than-expected path to rate hikes. The won KRW=KFTC rose as much as 0.6%, while the ringgit MYR= touched a near two-month high. ...

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Dollar awaits Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

The dollar steadied on Friday as investors awaited a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with analysts now doubting the central bank’s boss will hint when he may start to trim asset purchases. The market was focused this week on what signals the U.S. central bank could send at its annual Jackson Hole conference, which kicked off on Thursday in virtual format, with the main event being Powell’s speech on Friday. The event has been often used by Fed bosses in the past to provide guidance on ...

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Bearish bets soften on Asian FX as U.S. dollar eases

Investors trimmed bearish bets on most Asian currencies as the dollar weakened on hopes of a temporary pushback in the Federal Reserve’s tapering timeline, while sentiment on the Indian rupee turned marginally bullish, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Investors unwound their bearish bets on the Indian rupee INR=IN to be slightly bullish for the first time since mid-June, with the currency appreciating 0.2% in August after vaccination programs were ramped up and the central bank continued its monetary policy support. Economic growth in India is expected to touch a ...

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Unlocking the dollar’s longer-term potential

As the market speculates over the timing of a U.S. Federal Reserve taper, longer-term charts might unlock the dollar’s potential, with or without the Fed’s help. The weekly chart shows the dollar index climbing within a thick and rising Ichimoku cloud with 96.098 and 91.340 parameters. Progress through the cloud has weakened a bearish moving average cross. July’s crossing of the 100-week moving average below the 200-week line was a strong bear signal. Cancelling out this signal and meeting a minimum Fibonacci retracement – 23.6% of the 102.99-to-89.20 March 2020 ...

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Dollar soft as traders look to Jackson Hole for taper clues

The dollar held near a one-week low on Thursday with investors eyeing the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timing of a tapering of monetary stimulus. The dollar index =USD, which measures the currency against six rivals, edged up 0.08% to 92.891, but still close to Thursday’s low of 92.801, a level not seen since Aug. 17. The greenback has softened since Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, among the U.S. central bank’s most forceful advocates for starting to reduce support for the economy, said last Friday that he ...

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