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Daily Currencies Ratings

South African rand firms ahead of local GDP figures

South Africa’s rand firmed on Monday, ahead of gross domestic product (GDP) figures and a whole-economy purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey. At 1514 GMT, the rand traded at 19.02 against the U.S. dollar , about 0.4% higher than its closing level on Friday. The dollar was last down 0.08% against a basket of global currencies. Statistics South Africa will release fourth-quarter GDP figures on Tuesday, which are expected to show growth after the economy recorded a minor contraction in the third quarter of last year. Investor focus will also be ...

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FX Daily: Waiting for a volatility shake-up

USD: Heading to the key payrolls test The strong US data on inflation, jobs and growth published in February had a clearer impact on rates than the FX market. The rebound in US treasury yields did not translate into material dollar strength across the board – EUR/USD has remained flat since the end of January, the Swedish krona is stronger, and only the yen and Swiss franc have dropped more than 1% in G10. The divergence between low yielders and other currencies in G10 has therefore been exacerbated as rates ...

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Currency markets steady, busy week ahead for investors

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on Monday, at the start of an action-packed week for markets with Britain’s budget, a European Central Bank meeting, U.S. jobs data and important political moments in both China and the U.S. all due. Eyes were also on , which rose to a more than two-year peak above $64,000 after a quiet weekend, pushed higher in recent weeks by big flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, above all in the United States. The euro was a fraction firmer at $1.08455, sterling was up 0.13% at $1.2670 ...

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FX: A dollar decline is delayed, not deterred

The FX market continues to be an extension of market expectations on Fed policy. The latest data on US jobs and inflation led investors to price out cuts before June and to reduce the anticipated easing package to 75-80bp. The month of February has seen a 50bp bump in the 2-year USD swap rate, which is trading around 4.55%, the highest since November. So, the dollar has become even more expensive to sell, and dollar bears are now on the hunt for more conclusive evidence on US disinflation/hard landing. That ...

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India’s forex reserves snap two-week fall

India’s foreign exchange reserves INFXR=ECI ended a two-week losing streak, standing at $619.70 billion as of Feb. 23, rebounding from two-month lows, data from the central bank showed on Friday. The reserves increased by nearly $3 billion in the reporting week, after declining by a total of $6.4 billion in the previous two weeks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb excess volatility in the rupee. Changes in foreign currency assets are due to the RBI’s intervention as well as the appreciation or ...

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Dollar gains on yen on cautious BOJ, dips against euro

The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Friday after Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too soon to declare victory on inflation, but dipped against the euro after weaker than expected U.S. economic data. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin held just below a more than two-year high reached on Wednesday. Ueda said it was too early to conclude that inflation was close to sustainably meeting the central bank’s 2% inflation target and stressed the need to scrutinize more data on the wage outlook. That sent the yen ...

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FX Daily: A higher bar for a lower dollar?

USD: Dovish asymmetry in rate expectations may not last US PCE figures – released yesterday – confirmed what most had expected: inflation stayed too hot in January. However, as discussed by our US economist here, there are still hopes that the disinflationary process will resume in time for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Personal income and spending figures came in strong too, but real household disposable income did not grow at all in January. We must remember how crucial this is to fuel real consumer spending now ...

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Yen falls after BoJ comments, dollar steady as traders weigh Fed outlook

The yen slipped against the dollar on Friday after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too soon to declare victory on pulling inflation up to a desired level. Meanwhile, the dollar was little changed against its other major peers, bitcoin took a breather after surging last month, and China’s yuan dipped after weak manufacturing data. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.26% at 150.36, after rising 6.3% in the first two months of the year. The moves put the Japanese currency close to its weakest levels ...

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Dollar dips as US inflation meets expectations

The dollar fell on Thursday after data showed that U.S. inflation was in line with economists’ expectations in January, easing concerns that price pressures could be seeing a renewed uptick. The yen gained after a policymaker hinted at the need to exit ultra-easy policies, while bitcoin held near a more than two-year high reached on Wednesday. U.S. prices picked up in January, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in nearly three years, keeping a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table. “The worst ...

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Turkey’s excess lira liquidity almost gone, open market funding seen possible

Excess lira liquidity in Turkey’s banking system has dropped swiftly after steps by the central bank, and the decrease could prompt the bank to provide more funding by traditional open market operations, bankers say. The central bank recently withdrew more than 1 trillion lira of liquidity from the market, the majority of it at the end of last month, to help bolster its monetary transmission mechanism, central bank auction and reserve data show. The data show that excess liquidity in the banking system declined to 14 billion lira ($449 million) ...

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FX Daily: US and eurozone inflation may endorse market pricing

USD: Disinflation bumps help The second release of the fourth-quarter US GDP report saw annualised growth being revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%, but a closer look hardly points to a softer growth environment. Government consumption was revised higher along with consumer spending (despite previous downward revisions in retail sales). The component driving GDP weakness was higher imports due to strong demand and inventories drawdowns. All this actually points to a hotter economy. On the inflation side, the PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) for the fourth quarter was ...

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EU deal on euro clearing ‘light’ on banks but a first step, EU official says

The European Union’s deal this month on rules to end the bloc’s “over-reliance” on London for clearing derivatives is “light” on big banks, but just a first step if they do not shift enough business, EU financial services chief Mairead McGuinness said on Wednesday. The bulk of clearing in euro-denominated interest rate swaps (IRS), widely used by companies to hedge against unexpected moves in borrowing costs, is done by the London Stock Exchange Group LSEG.L. U.S. exchange operator ICE ICE.N in London clears large amounts of Euribor futures. Brussels wants ...

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FOREX Dollar bounces before inflation data

The U.S. dollar jumped on Wednesday as investors position for U.S. and European inflation data due on Thursday, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars tumbled after New Zealand’s central bank cut its forecast peak for interest rates and Australian consumer price inflation held at a two-year low. Month-end portfolio rebalancing is also likely to sway market direction, with volatility picking up on Wednesday. Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York, noted that volatility picked up on Wednesday, which may be “hedging in front of the ...

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FX Daily: Not trusting antipodean weakness

USD: Regaining momentum Yesterday, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures came in below expectations in the US. The former piece of data is a good indicator of broader business capex, which has effectively flatlined since mid-2022. In inflation-adjusted terms, it signals a declining trend. Sluggish investment plans from corporations have been one of the few reasons for concerns amid an otherwise strong growth environment in the US. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence was revised lower for January and declined further to 106.7 in February. Gauges of expectations and current ...

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Dollar dips vs yen after Japan inflation data, US durable goods

The dollar was down slightly against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after data showing Japan’s core consumer inflation exceeded forecasts and that U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in January. The data out of Japan kept alive some expectations that the Bank of Japan might end negative interest rates by April. In the United States, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, tumbled 6.1% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast ...

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