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Daily Currencies Ratings

FX positioning: The peak of USD shorts?

USD net-shorts at fresh highs despite good spot momentum Positioning data ending 12 January from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) display a sharp increase in USD net-shorts in the last reported week. The aggregate dollar net positioning versus reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding SEK and NOK) dropped from -16% to -19% of open interest, edging below the multi-year lows of -18% seen last September. Quite surprisingly, this plunge into record oversold territory coincided with a pause in the dollar decline: the US dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.7% in ...

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Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise

The dollar edged higher across the board on Monday, extending a rebound from the near three-year low hit last week, taking strength from the recent spike in Treasury yields and the prospect of a growth boost from higher U.S. fiscal stimulus. Democratic U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with Democrats able to control both houses of Congress, has promised “trillions” in extra pandemic-relief spending. Ordinarily, the extra spending plans would prompt investors to worry about rising inflation and its detrimental effect on the U.S. dollar in ...

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Dollar drops as traders prepare for Yellen to talk up stimulus

The dollar dropped on Tuesday as investors prepared for U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen to talk up the need for major fiscal stimulus and commit to a market-determined exchange rate when she testifies later in the day. The fall in the greenback came after a 2% rise in the dollar so far in 2021, a gain which caught off guard many investors who had betted on a further dollar decline following its weakness in 2020. The dollar has been helped in January by rising U.S. Treasury yields and some ...

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Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise

The dollar edged higher across the board on Monday, extending a rebound from the near three-year low hit last week, taking strength from the recent spike in Treasury yields and the prospect of a growth boost from higher U.S. fiscal stimulus. Democratic U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with Democrats able to control both houses of Congress, has promised “trillions” in extra pandemic-relief spending. Ordinarily, the extra spending plans would prompt investors to worry about rising inflation and its detrimental effect on the U.S. dollar in ...

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Speculators’ net long position on sterling jumps to 10-month high

The pound started the week down against the dollar and euro on Monday but analysts remained upbeat about the British currency’s prospects and futures data showed the biggest net long position since March 2020. Global markets started the week “risk-off”, as escalating COVID-19 infections took precedence over optimism about vaccinations. The pound was among the risk-sensitive currencies to fall, while the safe-haven dollar edged up slightly. The pound has fallen overall against the dollar so far this year but, after a no-deal Brexit was avoided via a last-minute deal at ...

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Dollar at one-month highs as markets eye Biden’s FX policy; euro slips

The U.S. dollar strengthened for a third consecutive day on Monday to a four-week high as an undercurrent of risk aversion swept through currency markets, knocking the Australian dollar and the British pound lower. With U.S. markets shut for a holiday on Monday and Joe Biden set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. president on Wednesday, major currencies remained within well-worn ranges, watching carefully the new administration’s stance on the greenback. While outgoing President Donald Trump has publicly railed against the dollar’s strength for years, Janet Yellen, Biden’s pick ...

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Why China’s currency is strengthening and what it means for the rest of the world?

China’s economy is the world’s first economy to recover from the blows of the pandemic, and its currency has hitched a ride. The yuan has shot up to its strongest level in two and a half years against the US dollar in 18 months. And at 6.46 CNY per dollar Monday, it looks poised to jump even more. In mid-2014, the currency was hovering pretty close to breaching 6 CNY. This might not seem like a big deal for any other currency, but for China, which is notorious for keeping ...

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Dollar stands tall despite strong Chinese data; euro struggles

The U.S. dollar held firm at a four-week high against its rivals on Monday as an undercurrent of risk aversion swept through currency markets in the backdrop of weak U.S. economic data, knocking the Australian dollar and the euro lower. With U.S. markets shut for a holiday on Monday and Joe Biden set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. President on Wednesday, major currencies remained within well-worn ranges expecting some volatility later in the week. After a dollar selloff last year, the opening weeks of 2021 has seen a ...

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Dollar finishes week stronger as U.S. data hurts risk appetite

The U.S. dollar rose across the board to hit a four-week high against a basket of currencies on Friday, as data showing the COVID-19 pandemic’s continuing toll on the economy boosted demand for the safe-haven currency. U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in December amid job losses and renewed measures to slow the spread of COVID-19, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, further evidence the economy lost speed at the end of 2020. The weak data dragged U.S. Treasury yields lower and U.S. stocks fell as investors ...

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Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise

The dollar edged higher across the board on Monday, extending a rebound from the near three-year low hit last week, taking strength from the recent spike in Treasury yields and the prospect of a growth boost from higher U.S. fiscal stimulus. Democratic U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with Democrats able to control both houses of Congress, has promised “trillions” in extra pandemic-relief spending. Ordinarily, the extra spending plans would prompt investors to worry about rising inflation and its detrimental effect on the U.S. dollar in ...

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Bullish bets on Asian FX trimmed as investors eye high U.S. yields: Reuters poll

Investors scaled back long positions in Asian currencies as the outlook for emerging market debt soured after U.S. yields shot up, a Reuters poll found, with bets almost halved on the South Korean won and Taiwan’s dollar. The greenback has recouped some losses since benchmark Treasury yields jumped to more than 1% after Democrats captured the U.S. Senate last week, making potential passage of a large fiscal stimulus easier via debt issuance. As a result, bullish bets on the Chinese yuan, Singapore’s dollar, Malaysia’s ringgit and the Thai baht were ...

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Dollar rises as currency markets turn risk-averse; Aussie and Kiwi fall

The dollar rose and riskier currencies fell on Friday, as President-elect Joe Biden rolled out a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan that was offset by fresh U.S.-China tensions and a rise in COVID-19 infections in China. The dollar index is on track for its biggest weekly gain since November 2020, with its recent recovery from three-year lows challenging the narrative of dollar bearishness for 2021. Although the dollar’s rebound slowed somewhat overnight after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said “now is not the time” to be talking about changing the ...

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Dollar extends rebound as U.S. yields rise

The dollar edged higher across the board on Monday, extending a rebound from the near three-year low hit last week, taking strength from the recent spike in Treasury yields and the prospect of a growth boost from higher U.S. fiscal stimulus. Democratic U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with Democrats able to control both houses of Congress, has promised “trillions” in extra pandemic-relief spending. Ordinarily, the extra spending plans would prompt investors to worry about rising inflation and its detrimental effect on the U.S. dollar in ...

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Dollar gets ‘real’ and spoils new year narrative

Even as most consensus trades hit the jackpot again in the first weeks of the year, global investors have been left puzzled by one refusenik – a suddenly enlivened U.S. dollar. Partly because a bouncing buck just doesn’t fit with the rest of the prevailing “reflation” narrative, many currency analysts have just put its reversal down to an overstretch. And make no mistake, there were few dollar lovers coming in to 2021. COVID vaccines had arrived to goose a global recovery and de-stress the financial system further, political risks around ...

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Dollar holds gains as expectations for Biden’s stimulus grow

The dollar held above three-year lows versus major peers on Thursday as expectations for President-elect Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus pushed yields of U.S. government bonds higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose after CNN reported the stimulus will be around $2 trillion, adding support for the dollar. In early European morning trading, the dollar index was little changed, up 0.04% at 90.320, as investors waited for Biden to give details later today of a plan for “trillions” of dollars in pandemic relief. The dollar has risen in four of the past ...

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