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Daily Currencies Ratings

Dollar remains a force to reckon with; analysts wary of US currency’s strength: Reuters poll

A resurgent dollar is more likely to stay strong than not over the coming months, according to foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters, as markets reassess how soon the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Bucking a brief downward trend that started late last year, the gained nearly 2.0% in January alone. Various Fed officials pushed back on rampant market speculation for a rate cut in March, with the probability now down to less than 20% from a peak of around 90%, according to rate futures. A blowout U.S. jobs ...

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Dollar consolidates after Fed comments; yen slips

The U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range on Thursday and held just below a 12-week high reached earlier in the week, as traders digested comments from policymakers in the previous session. On Wednesday, several Fed speakers gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy in the United States soon or to move quickly once they do. “Central banks need to be convinced that, not only will inflation come down, but that it will stay down,” said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho. The market ...

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Sterling rises as higher house prices underpin hawkish BoE view

Sterling rose on Wednesday after data showing rising house prices in Britain supported bets that the Bank of England (BoE) was not likely to cut interest rates any time soon. British house prices rose 2.5% in the year to January, the strongest annual growth rate for a year, according to data from mortgage lender Halifax that added to tentative signs of recovering momentum. In a sign that the BoE is in no rush to cut interest rates, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said she was now thinking about how long interest ...

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FX Daily: Yen funded carry continues to perform

USD: What’s on our radar? It has been another quiet week in FX markets, where the dollar has largely held onto gains made after Friday’s strong jobs report. These low volatility periods encourage more interest in carry trade strategies – which effectively see investors positioning in high-yield currencies to outperform their forward curves. For example, if you don’t think USD/JPY will sink to its outright forward rate of 145.95 in three months, one might want to hold dollars. Similar strategies are being employed in the emerging market space, where investors ...

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Dollar on defensive after pullback from nearly 3-month peak

The dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday after retreating from a nearly three-month high against the euro in the previous session, with a decline in U.S. bond yields adding to the drag. Analysts pointed to technical factors for the dollar’s pullback, following a two-day rally of as much as 1.4% against Europe’s shared currency after unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data and more hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scuppered bets for an early interest rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields also turned down from highs overnight on solid demand ...

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Dollar eases, Fed policy path on interest rates in focus

The dollar edged lower against major currencies on Tuesday, but remained close to its highest level in almost three months, as strong economic data and a hawkish stance on interest rates by Federal Reserve officials buoys the U.S. currency. A string of robust U.S. economic data, including a blowout unemployment report on Friday, and recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have quashed speculation about early and steep rate cuts that the market had anticipated. Traders are currently pricing in only a 16.5% chance of a cut in March, the ...

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FX Daily: On the path to KRW deliverability

USD: Dollar holds onto its crown Another day, another piece of strong US data. This time it was the ISM services data, which handsomely beat expectations and triggered a further back-up in US interest rates and a firmer dollar. As such there seems little incentive for investors and corporates to offload any of their dollar holdings. Additionally, as we’ve highlighted here before, February is typically a good month for the dollar. There is also the looming China Lunar New Year holiday next week, which may make the market reluctant to ...

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Sterling tumbles to seven-week low as U.S. data boosts dollar

The pound fell to its lowest since mid-December on Monday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and strong economic data combined to boost the dollar. Sterling was last down 0.8% at $1.2532, its lowest since Dec. 13 and on track for its biggest daily fall in around two months. The euro was up 0.24% against the pound at 85.61 pence . Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth accelerated far more than expected in January and wage growth grew solidly. The figures caused investors to reconsider their ...

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FX Daily: Flip Flop

USD: A staggering US jobs report As James Knightley wrote in his review of the US January jobs report, it was strong across the board. Strong payroll gains, a decent spread of industries hiring, lower unemployment and higher wages. The only whisp of grey cloud was the average work week falling. Financial markets, however, looked at these strong numbers and sold bonds and bought the dollar. Once again, the US yield curve flipped back into bearish flattening mode, which is bullish for the dollar against the activity currencies – i.e. ...

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Dollar hits two-month high as Fed rate cut bets recede

The dollar rose to a two-month high against its major peers on Monday as traders clawed back bets for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The Fed repricing has followed Friday’s blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded market expectations and sent U.S. bond yields soaring, boosting the country’s currency. Treasury yields rose further on Monday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could “give it some time” before cutting interest rates. Japan’s yen fell to its lowest since early December in early Asia trade ...

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Dollar jumps, traders pare rate cut bets after strong jobs report

The U.S. dollar index jumped to a seven-week high on Friday after data showed that employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 last month, beating economists’ expectations for a gain of 180,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6% after rising 0.4% in December. It “blew away expectations,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. “The market has further cut the chances of a March cut and reduced the ...

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FX Daily: US employment continues on a benign trend?

The focus in FX markets today is on whether US employment continues on its benign downward path and represents the economy coming into ‘better balance’. Of interest will be whether December’s number gets revised down – marking 11 downward revisions out of 12 last year. We could see the return of a marginally more pro-risk environment USD: Jobs report in focus This week’s price action in US rates markets is instructive. Despite the Federal Reserve pushing back against prospects of a March cut, interest rates have still come lower. That ...

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Dollar index set for first weekly loss of 2024; US jobs data in focus

The dollar index was set for its first weekly fall this year, hurt by lower U.S. bond yields on the back of banking sector jitters, as traders awaited U.S. jobs data due later on Friday for clues on when the Federal Reserve could begin easing rates. The euro was last up 0.2% at $1.0885, building on Thursday’s 0.49% gain, and the pound was up 0.15% at $1.2761, having jumped 0.43% the previous day. That left the dollar index, which tracks the currency against six main peers, at 102.93, down 0.12% ...

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Dollar mixed after Powell pushes back against March rate cut

The dollar was steady against the euro on Thursday and fell against the yen after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets of early U.S. rate cuts. Sterling cut losses after the Bank of England said it would need more evidence of slowing inflation before easing. Powell said on Wednesday that rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, with inflation continuing to fall and an expectation of sustained job and economic growth. But he declined to declare victory in the U.S. central bank’s two-year inflation ...

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FX Daily: Two more reasons to hold dollars

USD: Fed and regional bank stress add to dollar’s appeal As we discussed in our FOMC review comment, the Fed’s pushback against a March cut has helped short-dated US rates edge a little higher and offered some support to the dollar. The strong message coming across from the Fed yesterday was that inflation and growth were moving into ‘better balance’, rate cuts would likely be coming but more data was required to give the Fed confidence to start the cycle. Beyond tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls data, we think the annual CPI ...

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