The U.S. dollar continues to soar in 2025 as seasonal, technical and fundamental factors combine to fuel demand for the currency. The dollar has jumped at the start of January, building on last year’s strong gains on expectations U.S. growth will beat peers and keep U.S. interest rates relatively elevated. The USD index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, has risen in January in 15 of the past 25 years. January has already seen the index break above the major 108.962 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace ...

China’s central bank summoned some fund managers on Friday to warn them against chasing a fervid bond rally, two sources said, amid worries that a bubble in bonds might undercut Beijing’s efforts to revive growth and manage a depreciating currency. Friday’s meeting is the latest in a string of warnings the People’s Bank of China has issued to banks and investment managers since last year. One of the sources said such meetings between the PBOC and institutional investors have become more regular recently, occurring several times a week, as investors ...

“We’re in the middle of a bull market. There might be more dispersion between winners and losers. I would focus on high quality stocks. I would focus on large over small, but I think that dips are viable and some of this volatility, especially as it relates to you know, any kind of domestic political or geopolitical headlines,” added Mayfield. Source: Reuters

The dollar has kicked off 2025 in similar vein to how it closed 2024, on the front foot. After a 7% rise in the greenback last year, the best yearly return since 2022, many factors that contributed to this outperformance remain in place. The path of least resistance remains tilted in favour of dollar upside. However, as traders reset their yearly performance to flat, FX price action is likely to be somewhat skittish, where strong views are weakly held to begin the year. After the most hawkish Fed meeting in ...

NASDAQ-Adv: 5,511 Dec: 4,776 NYSE-Adv: 2,253 Dec: 1,983 (Source: Nasdaq)

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors considered the economic outlook for the new year, amidst a quiet trading week. At shortly after 7 a.m. ET, The 10-year Treasury yield was down by more than 2 basis points at 4.547%, while the 2-year Treasury dipped 1 basis point to 4.237%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equal to 0.01%. Investors are weighing the economic outlook for the year ahead as data on the economic front is light due to a holiday-shortened trading week. ...

The dollar dipped on Friday but was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early November on expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and that U.S. interest rates will stay relatively higher. A still solid labor market and stubbornly high inflation has lifted Treasury yields in recent weeks and boosted demand for the U.S. currency. New policies under the incoming Donald Trump administration, including business deregulation, tax cuts, curbs on illegal immigration and tariffs, are also expected to boost growth and ...

Inflows into U.S. equity funds fell sharply in the week through Jan. 1 hit by rising Treasury yields and year-end profit- taking, along with concerns about a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Data from LSEG Lipper indicated that U.S. equity funds received just $490 million worth of investments during the week, significantly smaller than the $20.46 billion in net purchases in the week before. Last week, concerns over the outlook for mega-cap technology stocks increased as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.641%, its highest ...

In the past month Brent crude oil has risen by $6/bbl while natural gas prices doubled between September and December. Both moves favour the dollar as the currency of one the world’s largest producers while the surge in gas is particularly problematic for the eurozone. EUR/USD, which is by far the most influential currency pair, has started this year by falling to its lowest since November 2022. The move has underpinned the dollar against other currencies, in particular much less liquid emerging currencies. The weakness of emerging currencies will stoke ...

Asian stocks rose on Friday, aiming to shrug off a lacklustre start to 2025, while the dollar was steady near a two-year high against a basket of currencies as investors fret about U.S. rates staying higher for longer. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.38% higher, with South Korean shares leading the charge. Still, the index, which gained nearly 8% in 2024, was on course for a nearly 1% drop for the week. Japan markets are closed for the week. China stocks struggled to bounce back ...

U.S. investors are preparing for a swathe of changes in 2025, from tariffs and deregulation to tax policy, that will ripple through markets as President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, putting the focus on whether the U.S. economy can continue to outperform. The changing of the guard in Washington has big implications for how stocks, bonds and currencies fare in the new year and may require investors to rejig portfolios. Forecasts call for another buoyant year for stocks, the dollar to maintain its recent strength over the coming ...

USD: Entering favourable seasonality In our first FX Daily of 2025, it’s worth reiterating our core views for this year. We expect Trump’s policy mix to trigger further dollar strengthening, with European currencies – and the euro in particular – coming under pressure from protectionism and monetary easing. Emerging market currencies should have a tough year too, as discussed in our December FX Talking. The dollar is seasonally strong in January and February. Interestingly, last month was also a strong one for DXY (+2.6%), breaking a seven-year losing streak in ...

Despite strong U.S. equity market gains and rising long-term interest rates, the funded status of the nation’s largest corporate defined benefit (DB) pension plans improved only modestly in 2024, according to an analysis by WTW, a leading global advisory, broking and solutions company. WTW examined pension plan data for 361 Fortune 1000 companies that sponsor U.S. DB pension plans and have a December fiscal year-end date. The aggregate pension funded status of these plans at the end of 2024 is estimated to be 100%, just two percentage points higher than ...

Asia’s naphtha refining margins climbed to their highest in more than two months on Thursday, as traders returned to their desks following a week of dimmed market activity during the year-end holiday season. The crack (NAF-SIN-CRK) rose $2.82 from the previous session to $104.50, its strongest level since Nov. 7, while the price for second-half February naphtha rose $4.25 to $665.50 per metric ton. In the gasoline market, the margins (GL92-SIN-CRK) ticked up by $0.47 to $7.80 per barrel, as a flurry of trades at the closing window overshadowed higher ...

Sterling dropped to a near-nine month low against the dollar on Thursday, hurt by the U.S. currency’s relentless rise on expectations of dollar-supportive policies from incoming President Donald Trump The pound was last down 0.82% on the day at $1.2422, its lowest since April 2024, a decline which accelerated after it broke through resistance around $1.2475. The euro also fell, hitting a more than two-year low, and the Japanese yen, and most other currencies were weaker on the dollar, albeit by less than sterling. Trump’s policies are widely expected to ...