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Take Five: Black Friday test

The most important day for U.S. retailers is here and questions are rife on whether king dollar is set to lose its crown. Global purchasing managers data will shine a light on the health of the world economy, while Beijing could step up some of its promised support. And the World Cup football bonanza kicks off in Qatar. Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Amanda Cooper, Dara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in London. 1/GOING SHOPPING With ...

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Key events in developed markets next week

US: Ongoing weakness in housing data Thanksgiving means a holiday-shortened week in the US with the focus set to remain on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Market pricing has switched markedly since the surprisingly soft October CPI print but Federal Reserve officials continue to suggest there is more work to be done to ensure the inflation front is defeated. Indeed, we continue to hear comments suggesting the risk of doing too little outweighs the consequences of doing too much in terms of interest rate increases. Expect more next week. ...

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Key events in EMEA next week

Poland: Wage growth is no longer keeping up with rising prices Industrial output (October forecast: 8.8% year-on-year): Industrial production is benefiting from an improvement in supply chain functioning, which supports exports-oriented industries, including automotive and electric products. When the backlog of work is unloaded and re-stocking is finished, domestic manufacturing is expected to slow over the medium term. Retail sales (October forecast: 3.8% YoY): Retail sales growth has slowed to low single-digit growth as wages are no longer keeping up with rising prices. We forecast growth of 3.8% YoY as ...

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China issues rules to lure foreign investors into bond market

China’s central bank issued new rules on Friday to make the country’s bond market more attractive to foreign institutional investors, expanding currency hedging channels and making it easier for them to repatriate funds. China will unify its rules on cash accounts and cash payments for foreign investors and improve the way it manages foreign exchange sales and purchases for foreign investors, according the rules published on the central bank’s website. The rules “will be conducive to further facilitating foreign institutional investors’ investment in China’s bond market,” the central bank said, ...

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U.S. equity funds record biggest weekly inflow in over 10 months

U.S. equity funds drew massive inflows in the week to Nov. 16 as signs of cooling inflation soothed investor worries of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to data from Refinitiv Lipper, U.S. equity funds obtained a net $16.65 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since Dec. 29. The S&P 500 surged 5.9% last week while the tech- heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 8.8% to mark its best week since Nov. 2020, as economic data released last week showed that U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in ...

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Inflows into global equities hit 35-week high, BofA says

Inflows into global equity funds hit their highest level in 35 weeks in the week to Wednesday, according to a report from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) (BofA), as investor optimism brightened. Investors poured a net $22.9 billion into equities, BofA said, citing EPFR data, and $4.2 billion into bonds. They pulled $3.7 billion from cash funds and $300 million from gold. The pick-up in flows followed data last week which showed that U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in October, prompting a dramatic rally in global stocks and bonds. Investors ...

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EU readies next steps to boost its capital market

The European Union will propose rules next month to make it easier for companies to list, give creditors more predictability on company bankruptcies, and to attract more euro derivatives clearing from London, the bloc’s financial services chief said. Mairead McGuinness said there had been good progress in building the EU’s capital markets union (CMU) but more needed to be done to ease reliance on banks for funding companies and the economy, and on London post-Brexit for clearing euro denominated swaps. “We are still over-reliant on central counterparties outside the European ...

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World stocks eye 1% weekly loss, U.S. yield curve indicates recession

World stocks were heading on Friday for a 1% loss on the week, drifting from recent two-month highs after U.S. Federal Reserve officials fired more warning shots on interest rates, while the U.S. bond yield curve priced for a recession. The dollar and bond yields rose after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said interest rates might need to hit a range from 5-5.25% from the current level of just below 4.00% to be “sufficiently restrictive” to curb inflation. That was a blow to investors who had been wagering rates ...

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Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver’s seat

Split control of the U.S. Congress following the midterm elections may provide a tailwind for stocks at the end of a bruising year, but inflation and the Federal Reserve are likely to remain the market’s main drivers, investors said. Republicans were projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, setting the stage for two years of divided government as President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party maintains control of the Senate. “For the economy and markets it is policy that drives outcomes, rather than politics,” said Lauren Goodwin, ...

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Foreigners exit Asian bonds for second straight month in October

Asia ex-China bonds witnessed outflows for a second straight month in October, pressured by higher U.S. yields and a weaker growth outlook as the region’s exports fell sharply last month. Overseas investors sold a net $3.24 billion worth of bonds in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand, after withdrawing a net $2.91 billion in the previous month, data from regulatory and bond market associations showed. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been aggressively hiking interest rates to combat sky-high inflation, raising the chances of a recession and pushing investors away ...

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Chip stocks hammered in Asia, dollar firms on hawkish Fed

Chip stocks took a beating on Thursday, sending most Asian share indexes lower, after grim signals from Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) overnight about excess inventories and sluggish demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rebounded after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales suggested the Federal Reserve was unlikely to ease up in its battle with inflation. That fuelled concerns about the economic outlook, with the U.S. Treasury yield curve remaining deeply inverted in Tokyo trading and suggesting that investors are braced for recession. “Inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time … because in ...

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Fed may harangue markets to prevent premature pivot

The euphoria that engulfed markets last week after surprisingly soft U.S. inflation figures was understandable. But be careful what you wish for. The surge in stocks and bonds, and steep dollar slide last week sparked one of the biggest loosening of financial conditions in decades. If that continues, the Fed may feel obliged to step even harder on the rate-hiking pedal – cutting across markets just like it did this summer. What ensues is a risky cat-and-mouse game. Even if the Fed thinks inflation is on the wane and its ...

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Trump’s 2024 presidential bid a fresh wrinkle for markets

Former President Donald Trump’s entry on Tuesday into the 2024 presidential race confirmed the world’s “worst kept secret” and created another variable for markets that some investors say remains a low priority for now. Trump, who has mounted relentless attacks on the integrity of U.S. voting since his 2020 election defeat, announced his bid at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, seemingly with the aim of pre-empting potential Republican rivals. His high-spirited televised announcement comes after a disappointing showing in last week’s midterm congressional elections that many Republicans blame on him ...

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Stocks pare losses, dollar falls after Biden defuses tensions over Poland blast

Global stocks pared losses and the dollar fell on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in Poland was caused by a Ukrainian defence missile, dispelling fears that it originated from Russia. Initial relief among investors was enough to encourage some flows back into equities and commodities, but with concern still simmering over the chances that the Ukraine conflict could spill into neighbouring countries, risk assets struggled to gain much upward momentum. The MSCI All-World index was virtually unchanged on the day, ...

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Asia shares rise while oil falls on China COVID outlook

Asian share markets were higher on Tuesday and oil was weaker as investors sought to digest the economic implications of China’s COVID-19 policy adjustments and a rescue package for the country’s struggling property sector. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 2%, following mild losses for U.S. shares overnight. Australian shares lost 0.07%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index was up 0.18% after initially trading in negative territory. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index surged 4% while China’s CSI300 Index reversed an earlier weaker start to be ...

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