The S&P 500 index of U.S. shares will slip marginally between now and year-end as past interest rate hikes, troubled regional banks and weak earnings weigh on sentiment, according to strategists in a Reuters poll. They see the benchmark index .SPX ending the year at 4,150, down slightly from Monday’s close of 4,192.63, but still up about 8% from the end of 2022, based on the median forecast of 43 strategists polled by Reuters during the last two weeks. Given the myriad risks to the market, including a possible U.S. ...

Asian shares stumbled to a two-month low on Thursday, and the dollar rose as the impasse in negotiations to raise the debt ceiling undermined risky assets on worries about the hit to the global economy if the U.S. government defaults. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.84% to 503.93, the lowest since March 21, and was on track for a second straight month of losses. China shares fell 0.53%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 2% to their weakest in 2023. The drop in these two ...

Strategists at some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are sounding increasingly worried about potential market fallout from the standoff over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, even as stocks continue grinding higher. The S&P 500 is up more than 9% this year and stands around its highest point since August 2022. For now, equity investors seem unflustered as the deadline to avoid a catastrophic first-ever U.S. government default draws nearer, in part because most are confident lawmakers will eventually reach a deal. But with equities trading at valuations that are expensive ...

Stocks lurched downwards on Wednesday as U.S. debt ceiling negotiations dragged on without resolution, stoking a general malaise in markets that saw safe haven assets like the dollar and gold hold near recent highs. The New Zealand dollar meanwhile tumbled after the central bank caught markets off-guard by flagging that its tightening cycle is over. Europe’s benchmark STOXX index fell 1.3% to a 3-week low in early trading, as a jump in UK core inflation and more losses in market-heavy luxury names hurt risk sentiment. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific ...

The turmoil facing U.S. regional banks has prompted some lenders to step back, leaving space for investors such as asset managers, private equity (PE) funds and insurers to lend more. Non-bank lenders with deep pockets have invested in credit assets for years, but the regional banking crisis could supercharge their expansion into areas such as providing consumer car loans and mortgages, or financing the construction of buildings, according to industry executives. A cooling U.S. economy has also prompted some large banks to rein in lending, leaving space for money managers ...

As talks over raising the U.S. government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling go down to the wire, Wall Street banks and asset managers have been preparing for the fallout from a potential default. The financial industry has prepared for such a crisis before, most recently in September 2021. But this time, the relatively short time frame for reaching a compromise has bankers on edge, said one senior industry official. Less than two weeks remain until June 1, when the Treasury Department has warned that the federal government might not be able ...

Markets were cautious on Tuesday, as the latest talks over the U.S. debt ceiling offered something for optimists and pessimists, leaving European shares just shy of last week’s 15-month top, and U.S. benchmark yields at their highest in two months. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday on how to raise the U.S. government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before a possible default. However, both sides stressed the need to avoid default with a bipartisan deal and said they ...

There’s plenty of optimism about Thailand due to its tourism potential, but political headwinds could still be a game-changer, says Kelvin Tay from UBS Global Wealth Management. While Thailand stands to be a “big beneficiary” of China’s reopening and an expected tourism boost, so far, outbound tourism from China has been “pretty meager,” Tay told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” Thursday. China’s employment numbers need to go up first, he added. Thailand also needs to reinvest in infrastructure and rebuild at a faster rate, said Tay. The country had plans to ...

Greek government bond prices outperformed their peers on Monday as investors welcomed the outcome of a national elections that they expect to lead to a contiuation of policies supporting economic growth and declining public debt. Greece’s ruling New Democracy party (ND) took a commanding lead in Sunday’s ballot but fell just short of the threshold needed to form a government on its own. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was due on Monday to receive an official mandate to try to form a coalition. But his party will likely push instead for ...

Big European companies have delivered significantly stronger than expected first-quarter results, defying a challenging economic backdrop that includes surging inflation and rising interest rates. But European stocks are down from a 14-month high in April, as investors worry about the health of the global economy, falling customer demand and pressures building on profit margins. About half of the STOXX 600 companies have reported first-quarter results and two thirds of them exceeded estimates, a stronger performance than in most quarters when about half of companies typically beat earnings estimates. “It’s still ...

Recent advances in artificial intelligence are fueling optimism over how businesses can operate more productively in the years ahead. They are also providing a big boost to the stock market. The S&P 500’s 9% rally this year has been driven by a handful of the index’s biggest stocks, a number of which are at the center of the AI frenzy that has spread in the wake of the chatbot sensation ChatGPT. Five stocks – Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple and Meta Platforms – are responsible for the S&P 500’s ...

European shares were off to a cautious start on Monday while Wall Street futures struggled, with traders left on edge as U.S. debt ceiling negotiations approached crunch time after stalling last week. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling on Monday, less than two weeks before a June 1 deadline after which Treasury expects the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. A failure to lift the debt ceiling would trigger a default, likely sparking chaos in financial markets ...

Investors are looking beyond the U.S. technology sector’s bounceback this year for longer-term returns, as higher interest rates and an uncertain macroeconomic picture could present further headwinds, fund managers and strategists said. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped 21% this year, more than doubling the S&P 500’s 9% rise, boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings and cost-cutting measures from major companies, along with expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle is nearing an end. Longer term, other sectors are likely to offer better returns at more attractive valuations, said Abigail Yoder, ...

A potential deal to lift the U.S. debt ceiling could spur money managers to pare holdings in the massive technology and growth stocks that have been havens this year and shift into the rest of the market, some investors believe. Strong balance sheets and predictable cash flows have made megacap stocks such as Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com attractive places to hide over the last few months as investors worried about everything from the debt ceiling to a U.S. banking mess. That has boosted their share price and ...

US: Market on edge about a possible June rate hike Market interest rate expectations have shifted higher over the past week thanks to a combination of favourable headlines offering hope that a default-averting deal to raise the debt ceiling can be agreed upon this coming week, plus some hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials that mean a pause at the June FOMC policy meeting isn’t a foregone conclusion. These same two issues will dominate market thinking this coming week. Politicians have talked about the possibility that a vote could be ...