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UK Inflation Strongest In 40 Years

Deepening the cost of living crisis, UK consumer price inflation accelerated further in July to the highest since 1982 on surging food and fuel prices, adding pressure on the Bank of England to tighten the policy again despite the looming recession. Consumer price inflation rose to 10.1 percent in July from 9.4 percent in June, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday. Inflation was forecast to climb moderately to 9.8 percent. The ONS said the inflation rate would last have been higher around 1982. The ...

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Dutch Jobless Rate Rises In July

The Dutch unemployment rate increased for the third month in a row in July to its highest rate since the start of the year, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted ILO jobless rate for the 15-75 year old age group, rose to 3.6 percent in July from 3.4 percent in June. The rate is the highest since January, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent. In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. The number of unemployed persons increased ...

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The Netherlands posts surprisingly strong GDP growth but it’s not going to last

Growth supported by expansion of all main expenditure items These are good growth figures for the Netherlands; all expenditures, except inventories, rose. Investment provided the largest contribution to growth; gross capital formation expanded by 5.2% compared with the first quarter. Expenditure volumes rose thanks to a massive increase in transport equipment (37.2%), which had a lot of rebound potential due to earlier supply chain issues. Investment in non-residential buildings (3.7%), ICT equipment (3.2%), machinery & other equipment (2.6%), intangible assets (2.1%) and housing (1.5%) increased. Investment in infrastructure fell (-1.3%) ...

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Strong Israel GDP and inflation data seen prompting 75 bps rate hike

A sharp rebound in Israel’s economic activity and a jump in annual inflation have made a 0.75-point interest rate increase more likely next week, analysts said on Tuesday. The central bank had looked headed for a second straight half-point move at its upcoming Aug. 22 policy meeting, but data showed stronger than expected economic growth in the second quarter a day after a further uptick in prices. “Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation figures for July, the risks are skewed to a 75 basis point rate hike,” ...

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UK inflation heads above 10% and the peak is still to come

UK inflation has gone above 10% for the first time since 1980, and indeed both headline and core CPI measures came in above expectations. A lot of that surprise can be traced back to a huge 2.2% month-on-month increase in food prices (in the case of headline CPI) and a sizable increase in various housing costs (in the case of core). Next month, headline inflation looks set to dip back below 10% on a near-7% fall in average petrol/diesel prices, which came too late to affect the July figures. But ...

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US retail sales flat in July, but August spending set to surge

We hoped falling gasoline prices would lift retail spending in July, but this wasn’t the case. Nevertheless, the data still points to a healthy start to the quarter. The cash flow boost from lower gasoline prices will provide a major boost to spending in August, with stronger auto sales also set to lift growth. Third-quarter GDP growth of 3% looks possible Mixed news from the retail sector July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) while ...

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Inflation: Bank of England likely to raise interest rates by 0.5% again

As inflation soars to more than five times the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, experts warn that the central bank will be forced to raise interest rates again, with another 0.5% rate hike expected next month. In a further blow to households dealing with higher borrowing costs, a Reuters poll found 30 of 51 economists expect rates to jump from 1.75% to 2.25% in September. Debapratim De, senior economist at Deloitte, said: “With inflation above 10% and widely expected to rise further as energy bills increase, base interest rates ...

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Japan’s exports and core machinery orders recover

Imports grew faster than exports, deepening the trade deficit in July Exports rose 19.0% year-on-year in July (vs 19.4% in June), a bit higher than the market consensus of 17.6%. Auto exports to the US and semiconductor exports to China were particularly strong. Meanwhile, imports jumped 47.2% in July (vs 46.1% in June), also above the consensus forecast of 45.5%, mainly led by the high cost of commodities. Still, as global oil prices have dropped since June, we expect the trade deficit to narrow, with import growth decelerating. Also, auto ...

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Column: ‘Peak inflation’ ambiguous for dollar

The new-found “peak inflation” narrative has buoyed U.S. stock markets and lifted the dollar – but the durability of the more puzzling currency move relies more on how the inflation picture plays out beyond U.S. borders. Outsize retreats in annual U.S. consumer and producer price inflation last month, due largely to ebbing crude oil and commodity prices, have encouraged investors to bet 40-year high inflation rates may finally have topped out and the U.S. Federal Reserve can ease off the monetary brakes over the next six months. While that may ...

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ZEW index adds to bad macro news out of Germany

It’s not the most reliable leading indicator but the most timely one. Germany’s ZEW index fell to -53.3 in August, from 53.8 in July. The ZEW index is now close to its all-time low seen during the financial crisis. The current assessment also weakened to -47.6, from -45.8 in July, the lowest level since April 2021. The reasons for yet another disappointing data release out of Germany are clear: the almost never-ending long series of risks and challenges for the German economy has become even longer in recent weeks, with ...

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UK inflation to hit 15% in early 2023, Citi predicts

British consumer price inflation is likely to peak at an annual rate above 15% in the first three months of next year unless there are government measures to lower prices, economists at U.S. bank Citi forecast on Wednesday. Earlier on Wednesday, official figures showed CPI hit 10.1% in July, above all economists’ predictions in a Reuters poll. “In our view, the composition re-affirms the risk of more sustained domestic inflation. In the absence of offsetting support, we expect CPI inflation to accelerate to over 15% in Q1-23,” Citi economist Benjamin ...

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China to boost economic demand, speed up infrastructure – state planner

China will boost economic demand in a strong, reasonable and moderate manner and accelerate infrastructure construction in the third quarter of the year, officials from the state planner said on Tuesday. The comments came after bleak data for July, which showed the world’s second-biggest economy unexpectedly slowed and property investment falling at the fastest clip this year. “China will optimize policies for sustained economic recovery, macro policies should expand demand actively in a strong, reasonable and moderate manner,” Yuan Da, a spokesperson at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), ...

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Inflation, labour shortages to delay recovery in business travel spending -industry forecast

A recovery in global business travel spending to pre-pandemic levels is likely to be delayed by 18 months to 2026 because of factors like persistent inflation, high energy prices, labour shortages and lockdowns in China, a new industry forecast shows. The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) said business travel spending rebounded by 5.5% to $697 billion in 2021 with North America leading the recovery, but remained well short of 2019 levels of $1.4 trillion. The recovery outlook is more pessimistic than GBTA’s last forecast issued a year ago, when it ...

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Latvia Unemployment Rate Falls In Q2

Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased in the June quarter, after rising in the previous quarter, figures from the Central Statistical Bureau showed on Tuesday. The jobless rate dropped to 6.6 percent in the second quarter from 7.3 percent in the first quarter. Further, this was the lowest unemployment rate since the fourth quarter of 2019, when it was 6.0 percent. In the corresponding period last year, the jobless rate was 7.9 percent. The number of unemployed people decreased to 62,800 in the second quarter from 68,000 in the preceding thee-month period. ...

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Britain launches trade system for developing countries

Britain has launched a scheme to extend tariff cuts to hundreds of products, such as clothes and food, from developing countries, part of London’s post-Brexit efforts to set up systems to replace those run by the European Union. In June, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he wanted to start a new trade system to reduce costs and simplify rules for 65 developing countries to replace the EU’s Generalised System of Preferences, which applies import duties at reduced rates. Trade minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said the Developing Countries Trading scheme (DCTS) would ...

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