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Energy, inflation crises risk pushing big economies into recession – OECD

Global economic growth is slowing more than was forecast a few months ago in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as energy and inflation crises risk snowballing into recessions in major economies, the OECD said on Monday. While global growth this year was still expected at 3.0%, it is now projected to slow to 2.2% in 2023, revised down from a forecast in June of 2.8%, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said. The Paris-based policy forum was particularly pessimistic about the outlook in Europe – the most ...

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OECD Interim Economic Outlook warns of pervasive global economic slowdown

The global economy has lost momentum in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, which is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on inflation worldwide, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global growth at a modest 3% this year before slowing further to just 2.2% in 2023. This is well below the pace of economic growth projected prior to the war and represents around USD 2.8 trillion in foregone global output in 2023. The war has further pushed up energy prices, ...

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IMF cites Japanese yen’s volatility, says monitoring situation

Asked about the Bank of Japan’s intervention to boost the yen, the International Monetary Fund noted the currency’s recent volatility and said it was monitoring the situation carefully. “The yen has been very volatile in recent weeks, given monetary policy tightening in the U.S. and other countries. We are monitoring the situation carefully,” Ranil Salgado, the fund’s mission chief for Japan said in a written statement. Source: Reuters

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IMF’s board seen approving new ‘food shock window’ in next two weeks

The International Monetary Fund’s board is expected to approve a new “food shock window” in the next two week that will allow the global lender to provide emergency funding to Ukraine, the head of the fund’s European department said on Thursday. Alfred Kammer told a conference hosted by Bloomberg that Ukrainian authorities deserved “huge credit” for managing the economic shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of the country on Feb. 24. He said an IMF mission would examine Ukraine’s budget plans and its monetary policy plans in late October, and stressed ...

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Tax policy is playing a key role in promoting economic recovery and responding to the energy price shock

Tax policy is playing a critical role as countries seek to promote economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and respond to the impact of rapid increases in energy prices, according to a new OECD report. Tax Policy Reforms 2022 describes recent tax reforms across 71 countries and jurisdictions, including all OECD members and selected members of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. The report finds that tax reforms – notably reductions in taxes on labour and more generous corporate tax incentives – have been among the ...

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Korea: improve competition and address social protection gaps to underpin recovery, says OECD

Korea’s economic recovery from COVID-19 is well anchored, driven by consumption, employment and export growth and with less direct exposure than some other economies to risks from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, according to a new OECD report. The latest OECD Economic Survey of Korea says that following its skilful management of the pandemic, Korea should now turn to long-standing challenges and focus on structural reforms to address population ageing, raising youth employment, closing gaps in social protection and fostering business dynamism. With a rapidly ageing population underscoring the ...

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IMF staff back $4 billion tranche for Argentina, praise ‘decisive’ steps

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement on Argentina’s $44 billion extended fund facility arrangement, which should unlock nearly $4 billion in funds for the country, the lender said on Monday. The approval, which needs to be ratified by the IMF executive board, would unlock $3.9 billion for the embattled South American nation, which is looking to rebuild reserves and tamp down spiraling inflation. Argentina, a major grains producer, struck a new IMF deal earlier this year to replace a huge failed program from 2018. The new ...

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IMF plans in-person mission to start talks with Ukraine with support – spokesperson

The International Monetary Fund could provide about $1.4 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine almost immediately if its executive board approves a new “food shock window” that was discussed informally earlier this week, an IMF spokesperson said. IMF officials were meeting with their Ukrainian counterparts in Sarajevo this week and would launch an in-person mission to start technical discussions, likely in Vienna in the “near future”, with a view to building toward a potential full-fledged program, IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice told reporters on Thursday. Source: Reuters

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Economic growth – a weak outlook for OECD countries

Economic growth in developed economies remained weak in the second quarter of this year, as the war in Ukraine hampered output in many nations. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the combined gross domestic product of its 38 members expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter over the first quarter, when it was also 0.3%. That’s well below the average quarterly growth rate of more than 1.2% last year. In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth increased 0.2% compared with zero growth in Q1 2022. The OECD said ...

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IMF sees further global economic slowdown in third quarter

Downside risks continue to dominate the global economic outlook and some countries are expected to slip into recession in 2023, but it is too early to say if there will be a widespread global recession, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said on Thursday. Rice told reporters that high-frequency data pointed to a further loss of momentum in the third quarter, given continued high inflation, supply chain problems and tighter financial market conditions, but gave no details on any further revisions to the International Monetary Fund’s outlook. The IMF in July revised ...

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IMF’s Georgieva says central bankers must be ‘stubborn’ in fighting inflation

Central bankers must be persistent in fighting broad-based inflation, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday, conceding that many economists were wrong when they predicted last year that inflation would ease. “Inflation is stubborn, it is more broad-based than we thought it would be,” she said, “And what it means is … we need central bankers to be as stubborn in fighting it as inflation has demonstrably been.” If fiscal policy and monetary policy worked well, next year might prove less painful, she said. But if fiscal policy ...

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Jobs outlook highly uncertain in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, says OECD

OECD labour markets bounced back strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the global employment outlook is now highly uncertain according to a new OECD report. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has caused lower global growth and higher inflation, with negative impacts on business investment and private consumption. The OECD Employment Outlook 2022 says that while labour markets remain tight in most OECD countries, lower global growth means employment growth is also likely to slow, while major hikes in energy and commodity prices are generating a cost of living crisis. ...

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G20 GDP falls 0.4% in the second quarter of 2022

13 Sep 2022 – Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area fell 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2022 after rising 0.5% in the first quarter, according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). The contraction in the G20 area contrasts with GDP growth of 0.4% in the OECD area1 in the second quarter of 2022. The slowdown in the G20 area in Q2 2022 mainly reflected the sharp contraction in China,2 where GDP fell by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter after rising by 1.4% in Q1 2022. This contraction reflected the lockdowns ...

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Leading indicators continue to point to weakening growth in most major economies

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity over the next six to nine months, continue to signal a slowdown in most major economies and in the OECD area as a whole. Among large OECD economies, the CLIs continue to anticipate a loss of growth momentum in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as in the euro area as a whole including France, Germany and Italy. Stable growth continues to be expected in Japan. Among major emerging-market economies, the CLI ...

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IMF chief Georgieva, Zelenskiy discussed ways to ramp up engagement with Ukraine

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said she spoke with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday and they agreed to explore ways to ramp up the IMF’s support for Ukraine using all available tools. “Excellent call with President @ZelenskyyUa,” Georgieva wrote on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). She said they discussed how the global lender could “continue to back Ukraine and agreed to explore ways to ramp up our financial and policy engagement to (Ukraine) using all tools available to us.” The call came a day after the IMF’s executive board held an ...

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