The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to alter course with its rate-hiking cycle, CNBC reported on Sunday, citing IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The lack of a significant slowdown in lending combined with a resilient U.S. jobs report on Friday could lead to further rate hikes, Georgieva told CNBC in an interview. “The pressure that comes from incomes going up and unemployment being still very, very low, means that the Fed will have to stay ...

Following two consecutive quarters of decline, G20 merchandise exports rebounded in value terms in Q1 2023, as measured in current US dollars (Figure 1 and 2). Compared to Q4 2022, exports increased by 2.2%, driven partly by the revival of economic activity in China. G20 merchandise imports contracted by 1.2%, largely reflecting easing energy prices. Strong sales of vehicles and parts contributed to export growth in North America, with exports expanding by 1.0% in the United States, 1.2% in Canada and 1.2% in Mexico. In the European Union, exports increased ...

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday she was confident the United States would avoid a debt default. The U.S. government could fall behind on its bills next month – and even default on its debt – if Congress doesn’t raise a $31.4 trillion cap on government borrowing, a failure that could trigger economic calamity and panic on global financial markets. The latest round of talks on the debt ceiling between representatives of President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans ended without progress on ...

The UK economy is expected to avoid a recession this year, the International Monetary Fund has said, after it sharply upgraded its growth forecast. It now expects the UK to grow by 0.4% in 2023, whereas last month it forecast the economy would contract by 0.3%. Growth would be helped by “resilient demand” and falling energy prices. But the IMF said inflation “remains stubbornly high” and that higher interest rates will need to remain in place if it is to be brought down. Speaking in London, the IMF’s managing director ...

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2023, slightly up from 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates. Quarterly OECD growth rates have been weak since the first quarter of 2022. In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth remained at 0.3% in Q1 2023. GDP growth recovered in Canada, Japan and France (to 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, compared with flat growth in all three countries in the previous quarter). Growth also picked up in Italy to 0.5% following ...

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday she hoped the world economy would not have to wait until the 11th hour for a solution on the U.S. debt ceiling. White House and congressional Republican negotiators are seeking to resolve a months-long impasse over raising the U.S. government’s $31.4 trillion government debt limit, with the nation facing the risk of default in as soon as nine days. Georgieva, speaking at a press conference in London, said a U.S. default would damage both the U.S. and the global economies, ...

An International Monetary Fund mission started work on Tuesday on the first review of a $15.6 billion loan program that it approved in March, the Ukrainian finance ministry said. The IMF’s four-year program for Ukraine is part of a $115-billion global package to support the country’s economy as it battles Russia’s full-scale invasion. The ministry said in a statement that Ukraine’s economic performance, the situation in the energy sector, and efforts to ensure the rule of law, increase transparency and fight corruption would be discussed during meetings in Vienna. Some ...

Sovereign borrowing needs are expected to increase in 2023 against the backdrop of the financial and economic spillovers of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as many OECD countries seek to cushion households and businesses from rising prices, according to a new OECD report. The Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2023 estimates that gross borrowing requirements will increase by around 6% in 2023, to total USD 12.9 trillion, up from USD 12.2 trillion in 2022. Net borrowing needs are also expected to rise in 2023 to USD 10.6 trillion, from USD 10.2 ...

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez and protesters in Buenos Aires pushed back against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday amid heightened tensions with the lender as the country faces nearly 109% inflation and dwindling dollar reserves. The South American grains producer, which has a strained history with the IMF, agreed to a $57 billion program with the Washington-based body in 2018 under former conservative leader Mauricio Macri to stave of economic crisis. That failed and was replaced by a new $44 billion deal last year. But tensions have risen as ...

The International Monetary Fund’s no. 2 official said on Wednesday she sees sizeable risks that inflation will remain high or accelerate in many emerging markets and urged central banks to keep monetary policies tight. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath told a conference hosted by the Central Bank of Brazil that markets were probably “too optimistic” about what it would take to bring down inflation in emerging markets. “Despite encouraging signs, I am worried that price pressures seem entrenched in many economies and that upside inflation risks are sizeable,” ...

The German economy has shown resilience over the last year thanks to a strong policy response and a mild winter, but economic growth will remain muted in the near term, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. Tighter financial conditions and the energy price shock have begun to weigh on near-term growth, the IMF warned in its country report for Germany. It forecast growth in Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) to stay near zero in 2023, before gradually strengthening to between 1% and 2% in the period of 2024 ...

The OECD unemployment rate remained at 4.8% in March 2023, marking its third month at this record low since 2001 (Figure 1 and Table 1). The monthly unemployment rate was unchanged in March 2023 in 15 OECD countries, declined in 14 and rose in 5. The rate was at or close to its record low in only eight countries, including Canada, France, Germany, and the United States (Figure 2 and Table 1). The number of unemployed persons declined slightly to 33.1 million, remaining close to its lowest point from July ...

Real household income per capita grew by 0.6% in the OECD in the fourth quarter of 2022, exceeding growth in real GDP per capita of 0.1% (Figure 1). Despite moderate growth in the third and fourth quarter, on an annual basis 2022 real household income per capita fell by 3.8% in the OECD, the largest annual decline since the beginning of the series. Household income results varied widely across OECD countries in Q4 2022. Of the 21 countries for which data is available, eight recorded an increase in real household ...

Despite progress in recent years, more work needs to be done, across all OECD countries, to secure gender equality, with women and girls still facing inappropriate disadvantages and barriers in most spheres of social and economic life, according to a new OECD report. The report Joining Forces for Gender Equality: What is Holding us Back? shows progress in some policy areas, such as paternity leave, pay transparency, flexible work opportunities and higher representation of women in leadership roles. However, major challenges remain, including the need to boost girls’ participation in ...

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 7.7% in March 2023, down from 8.8% in February 2023 and from the 10.7% peak in October 2022 (Figures 1 and 3). Returning to its February 2022 level, the decline in inflation was broad-based, with inflation between February and March 2023 moderating in 34 of the 38 OECD countries. At the low end, Japan, Luxembourg, Spain and Switzerland recorded inflation rates below 4%, while inflation in Hungary and Türkiye still exceeded 20%. Energy inflation in ...