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Tight monetary stance needed in many emerging European economies, says IMF

Underlying inflation in central, eastern and southeastern Europe is stronger than in advanced economies, requiring many central banks in the region to maintain a tight monetary stance for longer than the European Central Bank, a top IMF official said. Aided by a retreat in price growth from double digits, some central banks in the region have started lowering interest rates, led by Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, with Romania’s central bank holding off on rate easing for now. “The decline of the inflation rate is progressing more slowly in ...

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OECD forecasts Latin America, Caribbean to reach pre-pandemic structural balance by 2025

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday it projects the average structural balance in Latin America and the Caribbean to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2025. The regions are expected to see a steady improvement from 2022 to 2025, with forecasts indicating a return to -3.4% of potential GDP by 2025. This figure aligns with projections for OECD countries and mirrors the -3.4% recorded in 2019. The structural or underlying fiscal balance is the difference between government revenue and expenditure, corrected for effects that could be attributed to ...

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G20 GDP growth continues at a steady pace in the fourth quarter of 2023

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023 according to provisional estimates, slightly down from 0.8% in the previous quarter (Figure 1). The economic performance of G20 countries was mixed in Q4 2023. GDP growth weakened in China (to 1.0% in Q4 compared with 1.5% in Q3) and the United States (to 0.8% in Q4 compared with 1.2% in Q3).[1] In Mexico, GDP growth fell from 1.1% in Q3 2023 to 0.1% in Q4. GDP growth slowed slightly in Australia ...

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EU finance ministers back Georgieva for second IMF term

European Union finance ministers on Tuesday endorsed International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for a second term at the helm of the lender of last resort. Georgieva’s current five-year term ends on Sept 30. Traditionally European countries recommend the managing director of the IMF and the United States recommends the head of the World Bank. “EU ministers agreed to jointly support Kristalina Georgieva for a second mandate as managing director of the IMF,” a spokesman for the Belgian EU presidency said. There were no other candidates, EU officials said. ...

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Transitioning to greener and more sustainable growth models can provide a massive boost to employment in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia, a region grappling with environmental challenges and the effects of climate change where one in three workers rely on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods, would see large employment gains from transitioning to sustainable agriculture and to renewable sources of energy, according to a new OECD Development Centre report. “Towards Greener and More Inclusive Societies in Southeast Asia” finds that, for instance, in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, transitioning towards cleaner energy production could potentially create more than 1 million new jobs. Transitioning to more sustainable ...

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Germany supports 2nd term for IMF’s Georgieva, minister says

Germany will support a second term for International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Monday. “Kristalina Georgieva navigated the IMF through difficult times over the last years. I am convinced that she is exactly the right person to steer the institution through the challenges ahead and to strengthen the IMF as an advocate for structural reforms in our economies,” Linder said in a post on X. Georgieva, the IMF’s 12th managing director since its founding in 1944, will end her current term on Sept. ...

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OECD sees total bond debt to rise in 2024 on tightening financial conditions

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said it expects its governments’ total bond debt to rise to $56 trillion this year from $54 trillion in 2023 in an environment of restrictive financial conditions. The United States will represent roughly half of this debt, twice its share in 2008, while the European Union will account for 20%, Japan for 16% and Britain for 6%, the OECD said. Favourable funding conditions between 2008 and 2022 enabled many governments and companies to borrow at low cost and to extend debt maturities. ...

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IMF’s Georgieva interested in second term as fund’s head, has support, say sources

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is interested in a second five-year term heading up the global lender and is poised to secure sufficient support among member countries, sources familiar with the plans said. Georgieva’s term ends on Sept. 30. The Bulgarian economist last week won the backing of French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who told reporters during the Group of 20 finance meetings in Sao Paulo that Georgieva had done a “great job” leading the institution and that France would support her for a second term. Le ...

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IMF says staff assessing China’s growth steps, Georgieva to visit Beijing

The International Monetary Fund’s staff is still assessing steps announced by China this week to shore up its flagging economy but welcomes Beijing’s “focus on quality and sustainable growth,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday. Kozack told a regular news briefing that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath will travel to Beijing March 23 to 27 and will meet with Chinese authorities and attend economic conferences. The trip follows Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s announcement of an ambitious 5% GDP growth target for China’s ...

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IMF chief Georgieva says focused on job at hand, not future role

With just seven months to go in Kristalina Georgieva’s five-year term as head of the International Monetary Fund, she said on Tuesday that she is not focused on whether to seek a second one. Georgieva told Reuters she was focused on the work at hand as the IMF managing director. “Look, I have work to do right now,” she told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a meeting of finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies in Sao Paulo. “I have always been of the view ...

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IMF urges G20 cooperation on climate, global AI principles

Medium-term global growth prospects are the weakest in decades, but G20 major economies could boost growth prospects if they work together to address climate change, avoid trade restrictions and adopt worldwide principles for artificial intelligence (AI), the International Monetary Fund said. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged G20 major economies to “act boldly” to rebuild policy momentum on reforms after years of “firefighting” in the wake of economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. With global growth expected to reach 3.1% in 2024, inflation falling ...

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G20 merchandise trade growth flattens while services trade rises moderately in Q4 2023

After several quarters of decline, G20 merchandise trade growth flattened in value terms in Q4 2023, as measured in current US dollars (Figure 1 and 2). There was little change in exports and imports compared to Q3 2023, as a robust recovery in East Asia was counterbalanced by a slowdown in Europe and North America. Export growth stagnated in the United States, with lower sales of automobiles being offset by higher sales of industrial supplies. In the European Union, exports were down by 0.6% driven by a decline in chemical ...

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IMF sees downside risks for Japan in 2024, recovery in Britain

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said Japan’s weaker economic performance in 2023 could add to downside risks in 2024, while high frequency indicators were pointing to a recovery in Britain this year. IMF spokesperson Julie Kosack told reporters the global lender would take new information on the Japanese and British economies – which both slipped into recession – into account as it prepared a new global forecast to be released in April. She noted that inflation had been coming down, but the “job is not yet done on monetary ...

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OECD GDP grows by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). Quarterly OECD GDP growth rates have remained weak over the past two years (Table 1). In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed slightly to 0.4% in Q4 2023 compared with 0.5% in Q3. This reflects a mixed picture among G7 countries. On the one hand, GDP contracted in the United Kingdom (-0.3%) and Japan (-0.1%) for the second quarter in a row. GDP also contracted in Germany (-0.3%) ...

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OECD unemployment rate unchanged at 4.8% in December 2023

The OECD unemployment rate was stable at 4.8% in December 2023, having remained below 5.0% throughout 2023 (Figure 1 and Table 1). The rate was unchanged in 21 OECD countries in December, rose in 7 countries, and declined in 5 countries. The unemployment rate was more than 3.5 percentage points [p.p.] above its record low in Luxembourg and Spain (Figure 2 and Table 1). In 2023, the number of unemployed persons in the OECD continued to decline for the third consecutive year, reaching 33.2 million, the lowest annual level since ...

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