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IMF sees downside risks for Japan in 2024, recovery in Britain

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said Japan’s weaker economic performance in 2023 could add to downside risks in 2024, while high frequency indicators were pointing to a recovery in Britain this year. IMF spokesperson Julie Kosack told reporters the global lender would take new information on the Japanese and British economies – which both slipped into recession – into account as it prepared a new global forecast to be released in April. She noted that inflation had been coming down, but the “job is not yet done on monetary ...

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OECD GDP grows by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). Quarterly OECD GDP growth rates have remained weak over the past two years (Table 1). In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed slightly to 0.4% in Q4 2023 compared with 0.5% in Q3. This reflects a mixed picture among G7 countries. On the one hand, GDP contracted in the United Kingdom (-0.3%) and Japan (-0.1%) for the second quarter in a row. GDP also contracted in Germany (-0.3%) ...

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OECD unemployment rate unchanged at 4.8% in December 2023

The OECD unemployment rate was stable at 4.8% in December 2023, having remained below 5.0% throughout 2023 (Figure 1 and Table 1). The rate was unchanged in 21 OECD countries in December, rose in 7 countries, and declined in 5 countries. The unemployment rate was more than 3.5 percentage points [p.p.] above its record low in Luxembourg and Spain (Figure 2 and Table 1). In 2023, the number of unemployed persons in the OECD continued to decline for the third consecutive year, reaching 33.2 million, the lowest annual level since ...

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IMF: No change to Japan 2023 growth forecast despite weak GDP

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday its 2023 economic growth forecast for Japan remained unchanged at 1.9% even after the release of weak October-December gross domestic product data. “Despite the weak outturn for the second half of 2023 driven by weak domestic consumption and investment, growth in 2023 for the year as a whole remains robust thanks to strong performance of net exports,” IMF Japan mission chief Ranil Salgado told Reuters in response to a request for comment on the impact of the weak GDP data. Japan unexpectedly slipped ...

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Renewed efforts are needed to open markets as barriers to services trade remained high in 2023

The supply of services through commercial presence and digital trade faced new barriers in 2023, as global services providers were confronted by fragmented regulatory environments, according to annual analysis from the OECD. The overall number of services trade liberalisation reforms enacted in 2023 was below the previous year, but the aggregate impact of liberalising policies nonetheless moderately outweighed the introduction of new restrictions. New liberalisation efforts in 2023 contributed to easing regulatory hurdles in some countries, notably as regards infrastructure-related services, such as construction, architecture, and engineering services. These positive ...

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GCC economies seen growing around 3% in 2024

A gradual reversal of oil output cuts for some GCC economies, together with eventual rate cuts, is likely to propel growth in the region by just under 3% in 2024, shrugging off the slowing global economy. This is according to Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, who sheds light on the economic outlook in the Middle East and what to expect in 2024. Amid elevated geopolitical risks, but with slowing global demand growth and ample supply, Lombard Odier expects Brent crude to trade in a $80-90 per barrel range ...

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IMF’s Georgieva ‘very confident’ on soft landing, sees rate cuts coming

The International Monetary Fund is now “very confident” the global economy will see a soft landing, its managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday, adding that interest rates would start coming down around mid year. “We are very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming for,” after some of the sharpest interest rate hikes in decades, Georgieva said at the World Governments Summit in Dubai. On the prospect of interest rates being cut in leading economies like the United States, she ...

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IMF head positive on global economy despite uncertainty of Gaza conflict and rise of AI

Conflict in Gaza and a “tsunami” of change in the labour market driven by AI pose the biggest threats to economic growth in the region, the International Monetary Fund warned on Sunday. The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva addressed the Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai to suggest a road map out of economic uncertainty in the region. The forum was part of the curtain-raising pre-summit sessions held ahead of the three-day World Governments Summit, which officially begins on Monday at Madinat Jumeirah. Ms Georgieva said the global economy had proved ...

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IMF’s Georgieva says she’s confident on economic outlook despite uncertainties

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, said on Sunday she was confident about the economic outlook despite uncertainties because the global economy has remained resilient. In a speech at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Georgieva said the IMF would publish a paper on Monday that shows phasing out explicit energy subsidies could save $336 billion in the Middle East, equivalent to the economies of Iraq and Libya combined. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Maha El Dahan and Federico Maccioni; Writing by Rachna Uppal; Editing by ...

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IMF urges BOJ to end bond yield control, huge asset buying

The Bank of Japan should consider ending its yield curve control and massive asset purchases now, then gradually raise short-term interest rates, the IMF said on Friday, as markets ramp up bets on a near-term turn in the central bank’s ultra-easy policy. As Japan’s economy continues to recover, domestic demand is replacing rising costs as the main driver of inflation with the output gap closing and labour shortages intensifying, the International Monetary Fund said. “The BOJ has been appropriately cautious, given Japan’s history of deflation and mixed signals from recent ...

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Real household income grows for the fourth quarter in a row

Real household income per capita in the OECD fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2023, while real GDP per capita grew by 0.3% (Figure 1). The decrease in real household income per capita ended four consecutive quarters of growth starting in Q3 2022. Despite the overall decrease, 11 OECD countries registered an increase in real household income per capita in Q3 2023. Hungary saw the greatest increase (5.5%), due to strong growth in remuneration of employees, income from self-employment and property income.[1] Of the 21 OECD countries for ...

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OECD headline inflation edges up to 6.0% in December 2023

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased from 5.8% in November to 6.0% in December 2023 (Figures 1 and 2), after three consecutive months of decreases. Increases were recorded in 14 OECD countries, while inflation declined in 21 countries and was stable in the remaining 3 countries. Inflation was below 10% in all countries except Türkiye. Inflation excluding food and energy (core inflation) was broadly stable in the OECD, at 6.7% in December, still 0.7 percentage point (p.p.) above headline inflation. The decline ...

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The IMF’s latest update on the global economy, and other economics stories to read

1. IMF: Latest on the global economy The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its outlook for global economic growth, with increases for both the US and China. The UN financial agency cited inflation easing more quickly than expected, with its chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, saying that a ‘soft-landing’ was in sight. “The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up,” Gourinchas told reporters in Johannesburg. “We are very far from a global recession scenario.” The IMF is now forecasting global growth of ...

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IMF’s China gloom gets lost in translation

Does China’s economy look worse to outsiders? Yes, if Beijing’s rebuttal to the International Monetary Fund’s latest detailed assessment of the $18 trillion economy is anything to go by. Countries rarely agree in entirety with the multilateral institution but the disagreement is a dampener for those hoping for a bolder policy boost. The IMF strikes an urgent tone in its Article IV Staff Report. It expects the world’s second largest economy to grow 4.6% this year, from 5.2% in 2023, as a real estate crisis and weak external demand take ...

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IMF: China to stay top contributor to growth

Despite a moderate slowdown, China’s economy will still contribute more than a quarter of global economic growth this year and remain the largest contributor to worldwide growth, said a senior official at the International Monetary Fund. The country’s real estate sector is undergoing a needed adjustment to address oversupply, which can ultimately help stabilize economic growth, with more supportive policy measures essential to facilitate this process, said Steven Barnett, senior resident representative of the IMF in China. “China would still be the single-largest contributor to contribute over one-quarter of global ...

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