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Leading indicators point to a loss of growth momentum in the OECD

Growth may lose momentum in the OECD area as a whole over the next six to nine months, according to the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs). The latest leading indicators, which aim to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, support the view presented in the latest OECD Economic Outlook, which revised global growth forecasts downwards due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and continued supply-chain disruptions. The CLIs are now either at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies. Pushed down by high inflation ...

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IMF’s Georgieva warns against ‘complacency’ on global debt problems

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is pushing China and other Group of 20 economies to speed up debt relief for a growing number of heavily indebted countries, warning that failure to do so could unleash a damaging “downward spiral.” Georgieva told Reuters it was crucial to jumpstart the largely stalled Common Framework for debt treatments that was adopted by the G20 and the Paris Club of official creditors in October 2020 but has failed to deliver a single result thus far. “This is a topic we cannot have complacency on,” ...

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IMF chief Georgieva says she ‘cannot rule out’ possible global recession

The head of the International Monetary Fund said the outlook for the global economy had “darkened significantly” since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters the fund would downgrade in coming weeks its 2022 forecast for 3.6% global economic growth for the third time this year, adding that IMF economists were still finalizing the new numbers. The IMF is expected to release its updated forecast for 2022 and 2023 in late July, after ...

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Inflation in the OECD rises further in May 2022, reaching 9.6%

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 9.6% in May 2022 (Figure 1), compared with 9.2% in April 2022, largely driven by food and energy prices. This represents the sharpest price increase since August 1988. Year-on-year inflation increased in all countries except Colombia, Japan, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Ten OECD countries recorded double-digit inflation, with the highest rates recorded in Türkiye, Estonia and Lithuania. Food price inflation in the OECD continued to surge, reaching 12.6% in May 2022 compared with 11.5% in ...

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IMF says to work with new Argentina economy chief to solve ‘profound challenges’

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will work with Argentina’s new economy minister Silvina Batakis to strengthen macroeconomic stability and address the country’s “profound challenges,” a spokesperson said on Monday. Batakis was sworn in on Monday afternoon after her predecessor Martin Guzman abruptly resigned over the weekend. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Jorgelina do Rosario; Writing by Carolina Pulice; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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Some IMF staff work ‘unduly influenced’ despite strong safeguards-report

Nearly 20% of International Monetary Fund staff say their work has been “unduly influenced” by supervisors, according to an internal survey released on Thursday as part of a review of data integrity standards that generally found “robust mechanisms” for institutional governance. The review was launched last year by the IMF’s Executive Board following allegations in September 2021 that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva pressured World Bank staff to alter data to favour China in 2017 when she was chief executive of the development lender. After a weeks-long probe of the ...

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U.S. dollar share of FX reserves steady in Q1, euro share dips, IMF says

The U.S. dollar’s share of currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund was 58.8% in the first quarter, unchanged from that of the last three months of 2021, IMF data showed on Thursday. The greenback remains the largest-held currency reserve by global central banks. The euro’s share, however, slipped to 20% in the first quarter from 20.6% in the previous three months. In 2009, the euro hit its highest share at 28%. Global reserves, which are reported in U.S. dollars, are assets of central banks held in different currencies ...

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Agricultural Outlook 2022-31 underscores crucial role of investments in technology, infrastructure and human capital to raise agricultural productivity

Paris/Rome – The global agrifood sector faces fundamental challenges over the coming decade, particularly the need to feed an ever-increasing population in a sustainable manner, the impacts of the climate crisis and the economic consequences and disruptions to food supply linked to the war in Ukraine, according to a report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 focuses on assessing the medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. The findings of ...

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Here’s how governments should respond to the high global prices according to the IMF

Governments confront difficult policy choices as they try to shield their people from record food prices and soaring energy costs driven higher by the war in Ukraine. Countries introduced a variety of policy measures in response to this unprecedented surge in prices of the most crucial commodities. Our survey of these announced measures by member nations shows that many governments tried to limit the rise in domestic prices as international prices increased, either by cutting taxes or providing direct price subsidies. But such support measures in turn create new pressures ...

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IMF chief sees “narrowing path” to avoiding U.S. recession

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief said that there is “a narrowing path” to avoiding a U.S. recession, highlighting “significant downside risks” this year and especially next year. “Based on the policy path outlined at the June FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, and an expected reduction in the fiscal deficit, we expected the U.S. economy will slow,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a virtual press conference on the annual Article IV consultation to review the U.S. economy. With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s longer-run goal and ...

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IMF’s Georgieva says ‘some pain’ may be necessary to fight inflation

The head of the International Monetary Fund on Friday underscored the importance of fighting inflation now to shore up the prospects for economic growth in the future, warning that doing so could cause “some pain” to consumers in the short run. “Success over time (in lowering prices) will be beneficial for global growth, but some pain to get to that success can be a necessary price to pay,” Kristalina Georgieva said, as the IMF cut its U.S. growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8 percentage point to 2.9%. Georgieva said the ...

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Support to agriculture has risen in response to global crises, while reforms to combat climate change and market distortions remain essential

Public support for agriculture has reached record levels as governments enacted measures to shield both consumers and producers from the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises, according to a new report from the OECD. Only a small share of this support has been directed at longer-term efforts to combat climate change and other food systems challenges. Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2022 shows that the 54 countries monitored – including all OECD and EU economies, plus 11 key emerging economies – provided on average USD 817 billion of support to agriculture ...

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Pakistan, IMF say bailout talks make progress

Key progress has been made in talks on the revival of Pakistan’s International Monetary Fund bailout programme, both sides said on Wednesday, with Islamabad expecting the lender to increase the size and duration of the 39-month, $6 billion facility. The statements came as Pakistan’s economy teeters on the brink of a financial crisis, with foreign exchange reserves drying up fast and the Pakistani rupee at record lows against the U.S. dollar as uncertainty surrounded the IMF programme. “Discussions between the IMF staff and the authorities on policies to strengthen macroeconomic ...

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G20 GDP growth continues to slow in the first quarter of 2022

In the first quarter of 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area rose by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter according to provisional estimates, down from the 1.3% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. The slowdown in the G20 area in Q1 2022 mainly reflects weaker performance in the United States,1 where GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after rising by 1.7% in Q4 2021. This was mainly due to changes in net trade (exports minus imports) and decreases in inventory investment (destocking) and in government spending on COVID-19 assistance. In ...

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Leading indicators point to a loss of growth momentum in the OECD

Growth may lose momentum in the OECD area as a whole over the next six to nine months, according to the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs). The latest leading indicators, which aim to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, support the view presented in the latest OECD Economic Outlook, which revised global growth forecasts downwards due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and continued supply-chain disruptions. The CLIs are now either at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies. Pushed down by high inflation ...

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