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Growth continuing at a modest pace through 2025, inflation declining to central bank targets

Global growth is holding up, while the pace of growth remains uneven across countries and regions, and inflation is still above targets, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024 and a slight improvement to 3.0% in 2025, broadly in line with the previous OECD projections from November 2023. Asia is expected to continue to account for the bulk of global growth in 2024-25, as it did in 2023. Inflation is expected to continue to ease gradually, as cost pressures ...

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IMF chief says global economy shows positive momentum, warns of risks

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that although the IMF raised the global growth forecast, there’s still a need “to be mindful of risks.” At a media roundtable at IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. on Thursday, the IMF chief said that with conflicts still going on between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas, the complex geopolitical situation still brings uncertainties to the global economic outlook. The IMF upgraded the global growth forecast to 3.1 percent in 2024, 0.2 percentage point higher than the projection ...

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IMF projects China GDP to slow to 4.6% in 2024, decline further in medium term

The International Monetary Fund on Friday projected that China’s economic growth would slow to 4.6% in 2024 and decline further in the medium term with growth of about 3.5% projected in 2028. China’s economy has been hit by weakness in its property sector and subdued external demand, the IMF said. The world’s second-largest economy has struggled to mount a strong and sustainable post-COVID pandemic bounce, burdened by the protracted property crisis, weak consumer and business confidence, mounting local government debts, and weak global growth. Source: Reuters

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China to remain top contributor to global growth in 2024: IMF

Despite a moderate slowdown, China’s economy will remain the largest contributor to global growth in 2024, said Steven Barnett, senior resident representative of the International Monetary Fund in China. “China would still be the single-largest contributor to contribute over one-quarter of global growth this year,” Barnett said in an exclusive interview with China Daily, adding that the over-a-quarter contribution is yet to add in the positive spillover of China’s growth on other economies. According to the IMF’s latest forecasts, China’s economy is projected to grow 4.6 percent this year, compared ...

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IMF expects new housing demand in China to drop by around 50% in the next decade

Demand for new housing in China is set to drop by around 50% over the next decade, making it harder for Beijing to quickly bolster the country’s overall growth. That’s according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest staff report on China, completed in late December and released Friday. The IMF said it expects “fundamental demand for new housing” in China to fall 35% to 55% due to a decline in new urban households and a large inventory of unfinished or vacant properties. Slowing demand for new housing will make it ...

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Foreign workers face discrimination in Germany, but still keen to come-OECD

Germany is still an attractive destination for skilled workers from abroad, although migrants report racism and discrimination in everyday life, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday. Having tracked the careers of 30,000 highly qualified people who wanted to come to Germany as migrant workers since August 2022, their willingness to move to the country had increased rather than decreased over the time, the OECD said. Some 92% of participants in its poll lived abroad and were still interested in moving to Germany, it added. However, ...

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Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

The clouds are beginning to part. The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. But the pace of expansion remains slow, and turbulence may lie ahead. Global activity proved resilient in the second half of last year, as demand and supply factors supported major economies. On the demand side, stronger private and government spending sustained activity, despite tight monetary conditions. On the supply side, increased labor force participation, mended supply chains and cheaper energy and commodity prices helped, despite ...

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IMF sees scope for Asia to cut rates, urges clarity in China’s property fixes

Asian central banks may see scope to loosen monetary policy later this year as inflation moderates, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday and called on China to give a clear message in how it plans to address its property woes. Average inflation in Asia fell to 2.6% in 2023 from 3.8% in 2022, with particularly swift progress in emerging economies, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, told a news conference. With inflationary pressures “receding rapidly,” prospects for a soft landing were improving in Asia, he ...

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Debt relief delays could mean ‘disorderly’ defaults: IMF official

The flagship debt restructuring process for low income countries needs to speed up, otherwise there could be a series of “disorderly” sovereign debt defaults, an International Monetary Fund official said on Tuesday. A clearer understanding is needed of what it means to treat creditors equally in the G20’s Common Framework restructuring processes, Daniel Leigh, who leads preparation of the IMF’s World Economic Report, told Reuters in Johannesburg. The Common Framework, which was set up in 2020 by the G20 leading economies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, has been criticised ...

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IMF says global ‘soft landing’ in sight, lifts 2024 growth outlook

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday edged its forecast for global economic growth higher, upgrading the outlook for both the United States and China – the world’s two largest economies – and citing faster-than-expected easing of inflation. The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the global lender’s updated World Economic Outlook showed that a “soft landing” was in sight, but overall growth and global trade still remained lower than the historical average. “The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. The chance ...

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IMF tells UK not to cut taxes in run-up to election

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Britain’s Conservative government on Tuesday not to cut taxes in the run-up to a national election expected later this year, due to high levels of public debt and growing demands on services. The warning from the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, came after the body cut its forecast for British economic growth next year as part of a wider forecast update. “We would advise against further discretionary tax cuts,” Gourinchas said in response to a question from a reporter. He highlighted growing demands for ...

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IMF raises India’s growth forecast to 6.5% for next financial year

India’s economy is likely to grow at 6.5% in the financial year starting April 1, 2024 and at a similar pace the year after, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. The IMF also revised its projections for GDP growth in the world’s fifth largest economy during the current financial year to 6.7% from 6.3% in October. The strong growth projection for India came even as the report projected that growth in the wider region of “developing Asia” will decline to 5.2% in 2024 ...

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OECD employment rate remains at record high in the third quarter of 2023

OECD employment and labour force participation rates stabilised at 70.1% and 73.8% in the third quarter of 2023, the highest levels recorded since the start of the series in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Both indicators were at or near their record highs in 9 of the 38 OECD countries, including France, Italy, and Japan (Figure 1, Tables 1 and 2). Record highs in both the OECD employment and participation rates were achieved for women and men (Figure 2). The employment rate exceeded 70% in almost two-thirds of OECD countries. However, ...

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IMF chief urges countries to shift fossil fuel subsidies to fight climate change

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that countries need to shift some $7 trillion in direct and indirect annual subsidies for fossil fuels to help finance the fight against climate change. Georgieva told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the total fossil fuel subsidies include $1.3 trillion in direct government subsidies as well as indirect subsidies that include failure to price carbon emissions, adding that this price needs to be set at $85 per ton by 2030. Pricing carbon at 25% of that rate ...

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U.S. economy has already seen 75% of the impact from Fed’s hikes, IMF says

Around three quarters of the effects of tighter monetary policy have already fed through to the U.S. economy, according to an analysis by the International Monetary Fund. “We have to recognize that there has been a lot of resilience in the economy despite the rate hikes that we have seen … our estimate is that for the U.S. about three quarters, or 75%, of the transmission has already gone through, and the rest will go through this year,” the IMF’s Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said at a CNBC-moderated panel ...

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