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ECB to channel cash from north to south in bid to cap spreads – sources

The European Central Bank will buy bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece with some of the proceeds it receives from maturing German, French and Dutch debt in a bid to cap spreads between their borrowing costs, sources told Reuters. The ECB will kick off this rebalancing on Friday to prevent financial fragmentation among euro zone countries from getting in the way of its plan to raise interest rates – with an additional scheme due to be unveiled next month. The central bank has divided the euro zone’s 19 countries ...

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Beijing eyes next big thing, a 5 trillion yuan economy

In a report at the opening ceremony of the 13th Beijing Municipal Congress of the Communist Party of China, Beijing’s Party Secretary Cai Qi said that the capital’s economic output will exceed 5 trillion yuan ($745 billion) in the next five years, with the per capita GDP and overall labor productivity taking the lead in the country. The 5 trillion yuan GDP goal marks Beijing’s march toward a higher economic target after reaching 4 trillion yuan last year. It also means that in the next five years, Beijing could become ...

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China: Headline PMIs show recovery but details hint at weak demand

Rebound in non-manufacturing activity is a surprise The rebound of the non-manufacturing PMI to 54.7 in June from 47.8 in May was mainly due to more construction activity (the PMI for which was 56.6, up from 52.2 in May), This indicates the resumption of infrastructure construction and some state-backed real estate developers also resuming home and office building. It was less surprising to see the manufacturing PMI recover to 50.2 in June from 49.6 a month earlier, with new orders increasing to 50.4 from 48.2 in May. Manufacturing activity was ...

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Europe stares at ‘stagflation’, says UBS

Eurozone is headed toward “stagflation” as efforts to stamp out a surge in inflation will bring growth to a near halt in the second half of the year, UBS said on Thursday, while trimming its 2022 economic forecast for the region. The brokerage cut its GDP estimate to 2.7% from 2.9% for 2022 and said its forecast implies that the region, while clearly slowing down, would narrowly avoid a technical recession. “Together with high inflation, this scenario qualifies as stagflation,” analyst Reinhard Cluse wrote in a client note. The region’s ...

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The Fed has been clear, but the economy still isn’t ready for the big rate hikes ahead, Wells Fargo CEO says

Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said he is betting on “more significant rate hikes” as the Federal Reserve tries to rein in high inflation, and that the economy is not as prepared as it should be. “I wouldn’t bet on a number, but I would bet on more significant rate hikes,” Scharf told CNBC’s Sara Eisen at the Aspen Ideas Festival on Wednesday, adding that he considers 50 and 75 basis point hikes to be “significant themselves.” “Is it going to be more than that? Maybe, but it would require ...

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Eurozone unemployment reaches new all-time low despite economic slowdown

Despite a weakening economy, the labour market continues to outperform. At 6.6%, the eurozone unemployment rate has reached a new low. The widespread increases in employment are cushioning the negative impact of the Ukraine war and inflation on the economy and will therefore soften the blow to GDP in the second quarter and over the course of the summer. While surveys do show that hiring intentions are slowing at the moment, we don’t see a large turnaround happening in the eurozone labour market. Vacancy rates are at all-time highs and ...

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ANALYSIS-What slowdown? Canada’s economy to top G7 on high oil, crop prices

Surging oil and wheat prices are allowing commodities exporter Canada to weather an economic storm threatening to tip many of its fellow G7 rich nations into recession. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February stranded the region’s wheat stockpiles and triggered Western sanctions on Russian crude, sending commodity prices surging. Central banks jumped in to raise interest rates to stem inflation. As a result, many countries face far lower growth this year than expected as they emerged from the coronavirus pandemic. But as the world’s No.4 oil producer and No.4 wheat ...

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Economic Analysis: Concerns over Monetary Policy Decoupling between US and China

Fears over repeat of the China-triggered crisis of 2016 Concerns are rising over the decoupling of monetary policies between the US and China. The 2Y US Treasury yield has increased further to exceed China’s 2Y government bond yield by about 1%p, bringing back the painful memory of 2015-2016. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled by about 50% in just six months from 5,000pt levels reached in May 2015, pushing economic momentum down to its weakest level since the financial crisis. Differences between 2016 and 2022 We see differences in economic conditions ...

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German retail sales inch up in May

German retail sales increased slightly in May, even as high inflation continued to weigh on consumers, data showed on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.6% in real terms compared to the previous month, the Federal Statistical Office reported. Analysts had predicted a 0.5% increase in a Reuters poll. Despite the overall rise, food retail sales fell in May on the previous month by 0.6% amid significantly higher prices for groceries, the office said. That was nonetheless a recovery after grocery retailers saw a sales decline of 7.7% in April, the ...

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German unemployment rises in June as Ukrainian refugees look for work

German unemployment rose in June, Labour Office figures showed on Thursday, as Ukrainian refugees are registering with the office in search of work. The Federal Labour Office said the number of people out of work grew by 133,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.417 million. Analysts polled by Reuters had on average expected a decrease of 6,000. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5.3%. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Miranda Murray Editing by Paul Carrel)

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ECB to ask banks to calculate with recession risk: Enria

The European Central Bank plans to ask euro zone lenders to factor a possible recession into their business plans and will use this new calculation for approving dividend payout proposals, ECB bank supervisor Andrea Enria said on Thursday. The ECB continues to project solid economic growth for this year and next but has argued that an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could lead to a cut off in gas supplies could in an adverse scenario drag the euro zone into a deep recession next year. “We will propose ...

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China urges US to stop sanctions on Chinese firms over allegedly supporting Russia

China opposes the blacklisting of Chinese firms by the United States and will take the necessary measures to protect them, the commerce ministry said on Thursday (Jun 30). US President Joe Biden’s administration added five companies in China to a trade blacklist on Tuesday for allegedly supporting Russia’s military and defence industrial base, flexing its muscle to enforce sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. China hopes the United States will correct its wrongdoings immediately and stop cracking down on Chinese firms, the ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting said at ...

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China needs to keep options to cut RRR, rates while waiting for bounce, says ex-regulator

China’s central bank needs to keep cuts to interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio among its policy options while waiting for the economy to bounce back, a former senior official at the country’s foreign exchange regulator said. Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International and a former official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said China’s moderate inflation left room for monetary policy manoeuvre in the second half of the year to support the economy hurt by COVID-19 disruptions, global tightening and geopolitical tensions. “Before the ...

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UK posts record current account gap, but urges caution on data

Britain’s current account deficit in the first quarter ballooned to 51.7 billion pounds ($62.8 billion) or 8.3% of gross domestic product, the biggest shortfall by that measure in records going back to 1955, official data showed on Thursday. The Office for National Statistics said the figures were subject to more uncertainty than usual due to the impact of post-Brexit data collection changes on trade in goods imports and foreign direct investment which are being investigated. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a deficit of just under 40 billion pounds. The ...

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The war in Ukraine is triggering a re-evaluation of global systemic risk

The world is confronting multiple intersecting geopolitical events with highly unpredictable consequences. Coming in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war is disrupting global financial markets, food security and real economies. Escalating tensions between the US and China are compelling decision-makers to recalculate everything from their strategic alliances to the vulnerability of their supply chains. Making matters even more complicated, looming threats ranging from cyberattacks to climate change and the mounting possibility of nuclear war, including the erosion of norms and rules around acquiring nuclear weapons, are ...

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