Germany’s economy is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2024, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, which is likely to make it for the second year running the only member of the Group of Seven major industrial democracies to post shrinking output. The government is cutting its forecast from a previous projection of 0.3% growth for this year, as the expected recovery in the second half of the year failed to materialise. Germany’s economy was already the weakest among its large euro zone peers and other G7 countries last year, ...

It may not quite be the famous question of Shakespeare’s Hamlet, but it is something very much on the minds of U.S. homeowners these days: To refi or not to refi? Judging from the latest numbers, there is a lot of pent-up demand for Americans looking to refinance their home mortgages. In fact, refi applications recently jumped 20% in a week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and accounted for 56% of all mortgage applications. Average rates on 30-year mortgages approached 8% last November. They stood at 6.4% on Tuesday, ...

The EU is walking a delicate tightrope, with some member states keen to protect their markets, while others want to safeguard Chinese investment and to attract more. EU leaders described China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival in summit conclusions last summer. The ambiguity of that description was also reflected in last Friday’s European Commission decision to impose hefty tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made EVs, with the EU executive stepping in to overcome ambivalence and opposition from member states. This reflects the delicate tightrope the EU is ...

Widening U.S. budget deficits and inflationary trade policies after the Nov. 5 presidential election could weigh on U.S. government bonds despite the near-term advantages of a central bank in easing mode, bond giant PIMCO said on Wednesday. The bond-focused U.S. manager, with $1.9 trillion in assets, expects a so-called soft landing for the U.S. economy as inflation subsides and economic activity remains on solid footing. A worse-than-anticipated slowdown could still be positive for bonds, as the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates more aggressively, it said. But while it favors ...

The global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over a five-year period from a hypothetical geopolitical conflict which hits supply chains, insurance market Lloyd’s of London said on Wednesday. The economic impact would result from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the potential for compromised shipping lanes, Lloyd’s said in a statement. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have already disturbed shipping routes in the Black Sea and Red Sea. “With more than 80% of the world’s imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods ...

Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s half-a-percentage-point rate cut last month, to be released on Wednesday, may provide a final word on just how divided policymakers were over a decision that took many economists by surprise and sparked the first dissent from a member of the Board of Governors in 19 years. Fed chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference said there was “broad support” for the half-point cut, with even dissenting Governor Michelle Bowman agreeing it was time to ease monetary policy but preferring to start with a ...

German exports rose in August due to strong demand particularly from the United States and the United Kingdom, official data showed on Wednesday, defying market expectations of a decline. Exports rose by 1.3% in August compared with the previous month, data from the federal statistics office showed. The result compared with a forecast 1.0% decrease in a Reuters poll. “The second slight increase in exports in a row is a small glimmer of hope, but no reason to sound the all-clear,” said Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the ...

China’s finance ministry will detail plans on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy at a highly-expected news conference on Saturday, the government’s main information office said on Wednesday, signalling more forceful policies to revive growth. The announcement came after a media briefing held by the country’s top economic planner on Tuesday, which disappointed investors as officials refrained from announcing major new steps to get the shaky economy back on more stable footing. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an will attend the press conference, the State Council Information Office said in a notice. ...

U.S. wholesale inventories rose less than initially thought in August amid a sharp moderation in the pace of increase in motor vehicle stocks, a trend that if sustained could temper expectations for robust economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday that wholesale inventories edged up 0.1%, revised down from the 0.2% gain estimated last month. Stocks at wholesalers rose 0.2% in July. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the rise in inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, would be unrevised ...

China’s new yuan loans likely jumped in September from August, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as the central bank ramps up stimulus to drive the sputtering economy towards this year’s growth target. Banks likely issued 1.87 trillion yuan ($264.75 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, the median of 16 economists’ estimates showed. That would more than double August’s 900 billion yuan but fall short of the 2.31 trillion yuan issued in the same month a year earlier. In an effort to spur the flagging economy, the central ...

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras is backing two interest rate cuts this year and expects further easing in 2025 as inflation continues to trend lower, he told the Financial Times in an interview published on Wednesday. “Even if we have one cut of 25 basis points now and another one in December, we will be back to just 3 per cent — still in highly restrictive territory,” Stournaras toldthe newspaper, referring to the ECB’s main policy rate. Stournaras, the governor of the Greek central bank, said inflation could ...

JPMorgan Chase JPM.N and Wells Fargo WFC.N kick off earnings for the sector on Friday, and investors are expected to focus on the big banks’ forecasts for net interest income after strong jobs data fueled uncertainty about the path of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Both banks are expected to report lower profits for the third quarter after interest income may shrink while loan demand remained subdued. The sector reaped a windfall in net interest income (NII), or the difference between what they earn on loans and pay out for ...

Zheng Shanjie, chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, pledged a raft of actions to bolster the country’s economy during a highly-anticipated press conference. But he stopped short of announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors and weakening the rally in the mainland Chinese markets. China will speed up special purpose bond issuance to local governments to support regional economic growth, the senior NDRC official said. Zheng said ultra-long special sovereign bonds, totaling 1 trillion yuan, have been fully deployed to fund local projects, and he vowed that ...

British shoppers faced increased pressure on their budgets last month after grocery price inflation edged higher, industry data showed on Tuesday. Market researcher Kantar said annual grocery price inflation was 2.0% in the four weeks to Sept. 29, having been 1.7% in the previous four-week period. The data showed prices are rising fastest in products such as chilled soft drinks, chocolate confectionery and skin care, while falling fastest in household paper products, dog food and cat food. Official data published last month showed overall UK inflation stayed at 2.2% in ...

British shoppers increased their spending moderately in annual terms last month despite industry concerns about tax rises in finance minister Rachel Reeves’ upcoming budget and a looming rise in household energy bills, a survey showed on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium said spending in shops increased by 2.0% in annual terms in September, the strongest uptick since March when it increased by 3.5% although less of a rise than the 2.7% recorded in September 2023. Reeves took office in July following the Labour government’s landslide election win and is set ...