China’s uneven recovery this year has raised the question of whether the Chinese economy is losing steam. Many observers believe that a lack of reform is one of the key reasons for the country’s sluggish recovery. The geopolitical tension between China and the United States has only aggravated the situation, with international investors worrying whether China will continue to open up to the outside world. However, neither of these concerns is warranted if one scrutinizes what is happening in China. China’s uneven recovery is a short-term phenomenon related to policy ...

Investor morale in the euro zone improved at the start of December for the third month in a row, although it remained uncertain whether this was the start of a long-term trend reversal, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix’s index for the euro zone rose to -16.8 points from -18.6 in November, falling short of the -16.4 December reading forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. Sentix Managing Director Manfred Huebner said Germany struggled to keep up with even these moderate improvements, with expectations in the euro zone’s largest economy ...

White House budget director Shalanda Young warned in a letter to Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and other congressional leaders on Monday that the United States was running out of time and money to help Ukraine fight its war with Russia. President Joe Biden’s administration in October asked Congress for nearly $106 billion to fund ambitious plans for Ukraine, Israel and U.S. border security. Republicans control the House of Representatives with a slim majority, and funding for Ukraine has become politically controversial with some right-leaning lawmakers. Young said in a ...

Recent inflation data was “good news” and “a positive surprise”, but any future decisions on monetary policy would have to depend on the reality on the ground, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday. Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month, coming well below expectations for the third straight month, fuelling market bets that European Central Bank interest rates will come down much quicker than the bank now guides. De Guindos said that central banks needed to be cautious and that “it was too early to declare victory”. ...

German businesses, which have been struggling with high inflation, energy price fluctuations and geopolitical instabilities for months, are rather pessimistic for 2024 and do not expect a recovery, a study seen by Reuters showed on Monday. Only 23% of companies were optimistic about next year, while 35% had negative expectations, according to the survey of more than 2,200 firms by the Cologne-based German economic institute (IW). The situation had deteriorated in the construction and industrial sectors in particular, the institute found. Germany’s long period of job creation had probably come ...

An China-EU summit will be held on Thursday in Beijing, China’s foreign ministry said on Monday, where leaders of both sides will discuss strategic and global economic issues of common interest. “China and Europe are partners, not rivals … our common interests far outweigh our differences,” foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing. Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Wang said. “We will explore ways to solve problems ...

New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in October to mark the biggest monthly drop in roughly three and a half years, constrained by weakening demand for durable goods and transportation equipment and bolstering the view that high interest rates are beginning to bite into spending. Factory orders fell 3.6% after a downwardly revised 2.3% in September, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Monday, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders would decline 2.8%. Orders advanced 0.5% on an annual ...

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s pledge in 2020 to sustain “broad-based and inclusive” employment through loose monetary policy was considered a bold response to the pandemic, putting its muscle behind the idea that low unemployment and low inflation could coexist. The ensuing inflation surge has put that view under a spotlight, with scrutiny likely to intensify over the next year as Fed officials prepare for a broad policymaking review that Chair Jerome Powell has said will commence in late 2024. There’s been no suggestion the Fed will drop language added to ...

A mix of global economic unease and geopolitical uncertainty means optimism is in short supply among bankers from the City of London to Frankfurt’s ‘Mainhattan’ financial district. Even rainmakers renowned for seemingly conjuring deals from nowhere are struggling to see ways to work their magic and drag investment banking revenues out of the doldrums. Finance executives, consultants and headhunters interviewed by Reuters predict subdued deal flows, modest bonuses for most and heavy job cuts in 2024. “2023 will ultimately be one of the lowest corporate finance fee pools in modern ...

As organizations transition towards increasingly sustainable and socially responsible business methodologies, they recognize the imperative to engage professionals adept at addressing and navigating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges. Consequently, companies spanning various sectors are consistently posting ESG* roles, with each quarter since 2022 seeing more than 25,000 job postings from around 8,000 recruiters, reveals the Job Analytics Database of GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. Sherla Sriprada, Business Fundamentals Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “This sustained focus on ESG-related recruitment reflects a broader shift towards sustainable and responsible business ...

Tight credit spreads and strong investor demand for highly-rated bonds has prompted some U.S. companies to refinance debt maturing in the next few years rather than wait for expected U.S. interest rate cuts in 2024 to lower borrowing costs. November saw a sharp rise in refinancing activity as Treasury yields fell and average spreads on investment-grade debt – the premium charged over Treasuries – touched 111 basis points or the lowest level this year, according to ICE BAML data. A BMO Capital Markets report noted that 29% of new bonds ...

Federal Reserve policymakers signaled on Thursday that the U.S. central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely over, but left the door open to further monetary policy tightening should progress on inflation stall, and pushed back on market expectations for a quick pivot to rate cuts. Fresh data shows price pressures are easing and the labor market is gradually cooling, evidence that the slowdown the Fed has tried to engineer with its rate hikes to date is underway. Tighter financial and credit conditions after the Fed raised its policy rate 5.25 ...

Even as traders bring forward the expected timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut, the gap since the U.S. central bank’s last hike will probably be one of the longest on record. Lengthy periods of economic and policy stability are surely preferable to the Fed regularly scrambling to cut rates only a few months after they have peaked, but they can foster complacency and leverage in financial markets. Monetary policy doesn’t operate in isolation, and regulatory and fiscal policy influence investor behavior. But keeping rates on hold for ...

Modest rebound in trade volume despite sluggish global demand We expect global merchandise trade to expand by 2.5% next year, lagging behind global GDP. However, this uptick in growth is largely due to a low comparative base rather than a robust recovery in global demand. In line with our economic assessment, we expect demand potential for goods in North America, South America, and Europe to be limited. Coupled with supply shocks – like delays in container traffic stemming from extreme weather events such as the ongoing drought in the Panama ...

The global monetary tightening cycle was in its last throes in November, with major developed central banks delivering just one increase and the number of cuts outstripping hikes for the first time in 33 months across emerging markets. November saw six of the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies hold rate setting meetings, with only the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking rates by 25 bps. Policy makers in the United States, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway and Britain opted to keep benchmarks unchanged at their gatherings. This compares ...