The Chinese economy still has a “steep hill to climb” despite a surprise pickup in exports and is unlikely to be bolstered by further fiscal stimulus, according to HSBC’s Chief Asia Economist Frederic Neumann. Exports in U.S. dollar terms rose by 0.5% year-on-year in November, defying expectations for a 1.1% decline among analysts polled by Reuters. However, imports fell in U.S. dollar terms by 0.6% over the 12 months, well below a consensus forecast of a 3.3% increase. Yet economists have noted that external demand is still relatively weak, and ...

Federal Reserve officials will look at new wage data due out Friday to confirm what many have come to suspect: That rising worker pay at this point is helping to keep the U.S. economy growing at a modest pace without fanning the inflationary pressures they are trying to squelch. Wages last month likely rose at a 4% annual rate, according to a Reuters poll of economists, extending a slow decline in the pace of pay increases but still above the 3% level policymakers view as consistent with their 2% inflation ...

China’s consumer prices fell the fastest in three years in November while factory-gate deflation deepened, indicating rising deflationary pressures as weak domestic demand casts doubt over the economic recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.5% both from a year earlier and compared with October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday. That was deeper than the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of 0.1% declines both year-on-year and month-on-month. The year-on-year CPI decline was the steepest since November 2020. The numbers add to recent mixed ...

Russia’s success in evading a Western oil price cap is helping drive a recovery in economic growth as President Vladimir Putin prepares to run for re-election, despite the problems caused by labour shortages, inflation and high interest rates. Russia’s parliament has formally set next year’s presidential election date for March 17. Putin, who on Thursday said the economy was set to grow 3.5% this year, on Friday said he wouldrun again, a move that could keep him in power until at least 2030. Russia’s export-focused, $2.2-trillion economy has ridden the ...

Russians have enjoyed a dramatic increase in living standards over the course of President Vladimir Putin’s nearly 24 years at the helm of Russian politics. On Friday, Putin said he would run again for the presidency. High prices for oil, Russia’s main export, boosted Putin’s standing as the country emerged from the chaotic 1990s, raising incomes and purchasing power for millions of its citizens. But the 2008 financial crisis, followed by repeated bouts of Western sanctions following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 all the way through to restrictions in ...

Markets are ramping up rate cut bets, and Governor Bailey isn’t happy about it Financial markets are rapidly throwing in the towel on the “higher for longer” narrative that central banks have been pushing hard upon for months. Even more remarkably, a small but growing number of policymakers from the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank seem to be getting second thoughts too. So far, that market repricing has been less aggressive for the Bank of England. Investors are expecting three rate cuts next year compared to more than ...

This year was supposed to be a turning point for China, a time when the economy headed toward recovery. It turned out to be the opposite. It’s hard to remember now, but at the start of 2023, the country’s prospects couldn’t have been brighter—in part because of the terrible human price leaders had elected to pay for getting back to growth by ripping off the Band-Aid of its zero-Covid policy toward the end of 2022. Six months later, everybody was scrambling to understand why their predictions had gone awry. The ...

The European Union’s executive is due to approve next week a legal proposal on using proceeds from Russian assets frozen under sanctions, but doubts in France, Germany and Belgium mean Ukraine would not get the money anytime soon, officials and diplomatic sources said. The draft law is expected on Dec. 12, two days before the year’s final summit of the EU’s 27 national leaders at which billions of much-needed budgetary and military aid for Kyiv are at stake, as well as advancing Ukraine’s membership bid. The prospect of a Hungarian ...

Germany is not the sick man of Europe yet but it could become so if it does not make the structural changes required to modernise its economy, said Marcel Fratzscher on Friday, president of the German economic institute DIW Berlin. Fratzscher spoke about a “huge investment gap”, which he said was reflected in a lack of public infrastructure, particularly energy and digital infrastructure. The necessary transformation towards digitalisation, sustainability and the green transition is ultimately being massively slowed down by the interventionist approach of the government, the economist said. “Germany ...

China’s new loans are expected to have jumped in November from the previous month and exceeded the year-earlier amount, a Reuters poll showed, as the central bank works to shore up confidence and demand across the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 1.3 trillion yuan ($181.72 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, up sharply from 738.4 billion in October, according to the median estimates of 19 economists. Last November, 1.21 trillion yuan was issued in new loans. Last week, central bank chief Pan Gongsheng ...

Cyprus’s economy is expected to expand by around 2.9% in 2024 from a forecast 2.4% this year, its finance minister said on Friday, despite facing headwinds in a “fluid” international environment. The island, the closest European Union member state to the volatile Middle East, is keeping a wary eye on any potential fallout from the war between Israel and Hamas. “After emerging from a health crisis with its lingering effects we are now in the midst of serious geopolitical developments which create a very fluid environment internationally,” Finance Minister Makis ...

GDP contraction deepened in 3Q23 Third-quarter GDP was unexpectedly revised down to -0.7% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) compared to the flash estimate and market consensus of -0.5%. The largest revision came from private consumption, which fell 0.2% (vs 0.0% in the flash estimate) and the inventory contribution to GDP, which was down by 0.2% ppt. The negative contribution of inventory should be a good sign for the inventory restocking cycle. But household spending still lagged amid high inflation despite relatively healthy labour market conditions, which should be a real concern for ...

France, Germany and the EU executive expressed hope on Friday that EU governments will reachan agreement on the bloc’s fiscal rules by the end of the year, with Spain floating the idea of convening an extraordinary meeting to achieve that goal. France and Germany still differ on how to sustain investment when budget deficits are above EU limits, and other countries, roughly in two camps behind Paris and Berlin, are wrangling over other issues, including the minimum pace of debt reduction. The new rules are important for bond investors and ...

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner insisted on Friday that EU deficits must be controlled when reforming the bloc’s fiscal rules, a stance analysts said might help his case for spending cuts at home to resolve Germany’s own budget crisis. European Union finance ministers moved closer to an agreement on new EU fiscal rules early on Friday after hours of talks, but will need more time and possibly another meeting to reach a deal. The main issue left to agree between Paris and Berlin is how quickly a country with a ...

India’s central bank on Friday raised its fiscal year growth forecast on the back of a robust economy and flagged continuing tight monetary policy while it keeps watch over inflation risks. The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to expand 7% in the current fiscal year from 6.5% after stronger than expected growth in the July-September quarter. “The Indian economy presents a picture of resilience and momentum,” Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a prepared statement. “Growth remains resilient and robust, surprising everyone.” At a ...