Top Wall-Street brokerages revised their Fed rate cut forecasts, after a blow-out U.S. jobs report on Friday, with BofA Global Research forecasting a potential rate hike from the central bank. “We think the cutting cycle is over … Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold. But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike,” BofA analysts said in a note. Data on Friday showed, Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs last month, the most since March, and data for October and November ...

Global economic growth is projected to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, held back by the top two economies, the U.S. and China, according to a United Nations report. The World Economic Situation and Prospects report said that “positive but somewhat slower growth forecasts for China and the United States” will be complemented by modest recoveries in the European Union, Japan, and Britain and robust performance in some large developing economies, notably India and Indonesia. “Despite continued expansion, the global economy is projected to grow at a slower ...

President-elect Donald Trump’s legislative agenda faces roadblocks before he even takes office. Despite his Republican Party controlling all branches of the federal government, resolving a once-in-a-decade fight over the tax code as well as immigration and energy policy overhauls is troubled by arcane budget rules, congressional dysfunction and jittery government debt markets. That risk became clearer on Wednesday, when long-term Treasury yields spiked to 5%. A bungled legislative approach could further spook markets, dooming Republicans’ plans. Trump will meet with his party this week to hash out legislative strategy, including ...

U.S. consumers expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months and beyond, likely reflecting concerns that broad tariffs on imports pledged by President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration could raise prices for households. The University of Michigan’s survey showed consumers’ one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.3% in January, the highest level since May, from 2.8% in December. That raised the 12-month inflation expectations above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations soared to 3.3%, the highest level since June 2008, from ...

At a glance • The ‘empowerment line’ measures progress toward a world where everyone’s essential needs are met. About 40 percent of the global population lives above the empowerment line—they can afford a standard basket of essential goods and services and begin to save. The rest live below the line, mostly in lower- and middle-income economies where GDP growth is the main driver of empowerment. At higher GDP levels, income inequality and the cost of essentials become increasingly important barriers to empowerment. • Different populations face different combinations of empowerment ...

The Chinese government has expanded a list of products that people can trade in to get a discount of as much as 20% on new goods as the country tries to boost its flagging economy. The list now includes items like microwave ovens, dishwashers, rice cookers and water purifiers. State-backed trade-in schemes already covered televisions, phones, tablets and smart watches as well as electric and hybrid vehicles. The world’s second largest economy has been facing several challenges, including weak consumer demand and a deepening property crisis. On Wednesday, officials said ...

US jobs confirm a January Fed hold The US jobs report shows payrolls rose 256k in December versus the 165k consensus figure. Revisions to the past two months were -8k. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1% from 4.2% – the consensus was for it to hold at 4.2% with the risk skewed towards a 4.3% outcome. Wage growth was 0.3% month-on-month with the year-on-year rate slowing to 3.9% from 4%. All of this provides clear backing for a no change interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve later this ...

The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2025 report shows that despite withstanding a series of mutually reinforcing shocks, global economic growth has stagnated and remains below the pre-pandemic annual average of 3.2 per cent. The report produced by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), highlights the enduring impact of weak investment, sluggish productivity, and high debt levels on global economic performance. Tweet URL UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his foreword, called for decisive action to address these challenges. “Countries cannot ignore these perils. In our interconnected ...

Japan’s government will closely coordinate policy with the central bank as the economy is at a critical stage in shifting to growth driven by higher wages and investment, economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday. Japan has long been stuck in a “deflationary, vicious cycle” where prices and wages have stagnated, causing households to curb spending and companies to focus on cost cutting, he said. “It’s very important to dispel this deflationary mindset, and achieve growth driven by higher wages and investment,” Akazawa told a regular news conference, stressing the ...

Consumer price inflation in India likely fell to 5.3% in December on moderating food price rises, a Reuters poll of economists showed, bolstering expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank next month amid slowing economic growth. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the country’s consumer price index (CPI) basket, have kept inflation elevated in recent months, largely driven by a sustained surge in vegetable prices, which have risen mostly by double-digits for a year. However, they have started to ease thanks to a bumper summer ...

Britain’s big retailers, including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S and Next, say they are stepping up their drive for efficiency through automation and other measures, to limit the impact of rising costs on the prices they charge their customers. As the UK economy struggles to grow, the new Labour government’s solution is a hike in employer taxes to raise money for investment in infrastructure and public services, which has prompted criticism from the business community. Retailers have said the increased social security payments, a rise in the national minimum wage, packaging levies ...

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of Chair Jared Bernstein released the 2025 Economic Report of the President, the 79th report since the establishment of CEA in 1946. The 2025 Report assesses the economic progress made during the Biden-Harris Administration and highlights some of the most significant issues and questions in domestic and international economic policy going forward: Chapter 1, Four Years in Review and the Years Ahead, reviews economic progress over the course of the Biden-Harris Administration and presents the Administration’s official forecast for the decade ahead. Chapter 2, How Remote Work is Reshaping the ...

The German trade surplus with the United States is heading towards a record level just before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump arrives at the White House, an analysis of statistics office data showed. While the German statistics office published trade data for November on Thursday, Reuters calculations of 11 month figures showed that between January and November German trade surplus with the U.S. exceeded 65 billion euros ($66.95 billion), well above the previous 63.3 billion euro record reported for the full year 2023. “German exports to the U.S. have developed very ...

Investments from Bank of America’s retail consumers have swelled to more than $500 billion in assets this year, and the company aspires to cross $1 trillion in five years. “If you look at our results, we have doubled every five years, so I’d like to think that we could do that again and achieve this within a five-year time period,” Aron Levine, BofA’s president of preferred banking, told Reuters. The second largest U.S. lender launched its consumer investment business in 2010. It allows so-called mass affluent clients to choose their ...

China’s Evergrande Property Services Group said on Friday a Guangzhou city court has ordered its parent China Evergrande to repay pledge guarantees on deposit certificates totalling 13.4 billion yuan ($1.83 billion). Evergrande Property began legal proceedings against its indebted parent early last year for using its deposits as collateral for pledge guarantees. China Evergrande, the world’s most heavily indebted property developer with over $300 billion in liabilities, was ordered into liquidation by a Hong Kong court in January last year following its offshore debt default in late 2021. Evergrande Property ...