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China’s implied oil demand hits record in March -Reuters calculations

China’s implied oil demand rose 6.5 percent in March from the year before to hit a record high of 11.86 million barrels per day (bpd), Reuters calculations based on official data released last week showed.

Implied oil demand also grew at the fastest pace since May last year, according to the calculations.

The robust demand reflected both near-record high crude imports and a strong pace of crude processing, although a decline in both diesel and gasoline consumption raised more worries about a growing glut of refined oil products in China.

Gasoline demand fell 2.1 percent in March to 2.78 million bpd, while diesel demand dropped 3.4 percent from a year ago.

Reuters calculates detailed implied oil demand for a given month by adding net imports of major oil products, reported by China’s customs each month, to the amount of oil refined domestically, reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, without factoring in inventory changes.

China’s statistics bureau did not provide separate production data for January and February.

 

                                Mar     %      %         12-month
                                       m/m    y/y     moving average
                                                    
                                 31                 
 Imports (tonnes)                                                     
 CRUDE OIL                              21%   0.6%                    
                          39,174,129                                  
                                                           35,606,234 
 GASOLINE                             -100%  -99.7                    
                                                 %                    
                                 26                             3,354 
 NAPHTHA                               -11%  11.7%                    
                                                                      
                            622,553                           554,813 
 DIESEL                                -64%  -57.7                    
                                                 %                    
                             39,690                            56,374 
 FUEL OIL                               31%   8.9%                    
                                                                      
                          1,423,726                         1,177,922 
 LNG                                   -18%  63.5%                    
                                                                      
                          3,254,447                         3,576,460 
 KEROSENE                              -10%  -12.3                    
                                                 %                    
                            251,805                           319,973 
 PETROLEUM COKE                         -4%  19.2%                    
                                                                      
                            864,097                           702,443 
 BITUMEN                                38%  17.1%                    
                                                                      
                            473,899                           437,860 
 LUBRICANTS                             38%  -10.0                    
                                                 %                    
                            351,812                           286,358 
 LPG                                    31%  35.3%                    
                                                                      
                          1,575,017                         1,590,193 
 Exports (tonnes)                                                     
 CRUDE OIL                            1270%  -59.4                    
                                                 %                    
                            501,546                           335,558 
 GASOLINE                               95%  103.0                    
                                                 %                    
                          1,697,936                           968,469 
 NAPHTHA                                                              
 DIESEL                                128%  24.2%                    
                                                                      
                          2,376,053                         1,479,697 
 FUEL OIL                              155%  96.1%                    
                                                                      
                          1,260,411                           972,786 
 LNG                                                                  
                                                                      
                                -                                   2 
 PETROLEUM COKE                         26%   7.7%                    
                                                                      
                          1,341,313                         1,117,024 
 BITUMEN                                52%  64.1%                    
                                                                      
                            257,135                           199,637 
 KEROSENE                               -8%  251.7                    
                                                 %                    
                             45,918                            40,730 
 LUBRICANTS                             20%  -59.5                    
                                                 %                    
                             10,967                            13,454 
 LPG                                     6%  -15.8                    
                                                 %                    
                             96,638                           109,347 
 Net imports                                                          
 (tonnes)                                           
 CRUDE OIL                             8.4%   2.5%                    
                                                                      
                          9,106,770                         8,466,696 
 GASOLINE                             84.7%  105.2                    
                                                 %                    
                           (462,817)                         (267,582)
 NAPHTHA                              -20.0  11.7%                    
                                          %                           
                            178,733                           161,839 
 DIESEL                               126.5  28.4%                    
                                          %                           
                           (562,234)                         (348,227)
 FUEL OIL                             -75.1  -75.4                    
                                          %      %                    
                             33,980                            44,071 
 LNG                                  24.8%  13.6%                    
                                                                      
                           (276,946)                         (206,585)
 PETROLEUM COKE                       -24.6   6.8%                    
                                          %                           
                            107,687                            91,460 
 BITUMEN                              45.8%   9.3%                    
                                                                      
                            427,981                           397,130 
 KEROSENE                             24.9%  -6.3%                    
                                                                      
                             76,965                            62,840 
 LUBRICANTS                           19.7%  40.8%                    
                                                                      
                            553,200                           563,983 
 LPG                                  -214.  -899.                    
                                         9%     7%                    
                           (351,433)                          137,471 
 Output (tonnes)                                                      
 CRUDE PRODUCTION                            -3.7%                    
                          15,956,000                                  
                                                           15,851,667 
 REFINERY RUNS                                8.4%                    
                          51,513,000                                  
                                                           47,756,667 
 GASOLINE                                     5.8%                    
                          11,884,000                                  
                                                           11,167,500 
 NAPHTHA                                      8.6%                    
                                                                      
                          3,172,000                         2,805,583 
 DIESEL                                       0.3%                    
                          15,605,000                                  
                                                           15,257,750 
 FUEL OIL                                    -14.3                    
                                                 %                    
                          1,975,000                         2,175,833 
 KEROSENE                                    14.6%                    
                                                                      
                          4,000,000                         3,581,167 
 PETROLEUM COKE                              -3.9%                    
                                                                      
                          2,283,000                         2,239,000 
 BITUMEN                                      7.7%                    
                                                                      
                          3,172,000                         3,338,917 
 LUBRICANTS                                                           
 LPG                                          3.4%                    
                                                                      
                          3,291,000                         3,069,667 
 Net imports                                                          
 (bpd)                                              
 Crude oil                               8%   2.5%                    
                                                                      
                          9,106,770                         8,466,696 
 Gasoline                               85%  105.2                    
                                                 %                    
                           (462,817)                         (267,582)
 Naphtha                               -20%  11.7%                    
                                                                      
                            178,733                           161,839 
 Diesel                                126%  28.4%                    
                                                                      
                           (562,234)                         (348,227)
 Fuel oil                              -75%  -75.4                    
                                                 %                    
                             33,980                            44,071 
 Kerosene                               25%  13.6%                    
                                                                      
                           (276,946)                         (206,585)
 Petroleum coke                        -25%   6.8%                    
                                                                      
                            107,687                            91,460 
 Bitumen                                                              
 Lubricants                             25%  -6.3%                    
                                                                      
                             76,965                            62,840 
 Liquefied                              20%  40.8%                    
 petroleum gas                                                        
                            553,200                           563,983 
 All products                         -215%  -899.                    
                                                7%                    
                           (351,433)                          137,471 
 Output (bpd)                                                         
 Crude oil                                   -3.7%                    
                                                                      
                          3,757,381                         3,879,248 
 Gasoline                                     5.8%                    
                                                                      
                          3,239,348                         3,050,962 
 Naphtha                                      8.6%                    
                                                                      
                            910,671                           678,574 
 Diesel                                       0.3%                    
                                                                      
                          3,755,268                         3,718,332 
 Fuel oil                                    -14.3                    
                                                 %                    
                            410,927                           455,972 
 Kerosene                                    14.6%                    
                                                                      
                          1,016,774                           914,254 
 Petroleum coke                              -3.9%                    
                                                                      
                            405,048                           481,703 
 Bitumen                                      7.7%                    
                                                                      
                            625,191                           624,956 
 Lubricants                                                           
 Liquefied                                    3.4%                    
 petroleum gas                                                        
                          1,231,471                         1,173,287 
 Refinery runs                                8.4%                    
                                                                      
                         12,130,481                        11,254,388 
 Implied Demand                                                       
 (bpd)                                              
 Crude oil                                    0.6%                    
                          12,864,150                                  
                                                           12,345,944 
 Gasoline                                    -2.1%                    
                                                                      
                          2,776,531                         2,783,380 
 Naphtha                                      9.1%                    
                                                                      
                          1,089,404                           840,413 
 Diesel                                      -3.4%                    
                                                                      
                          3,193,033                         3,370,105 
 Fuel oil                                    -28.0                    
                                                 %                    
                            444,907                           500,043 
 Kerosene                                    15.0%                    
                                                                      
                            739,828                           707,669 
 Petroleum coke                              -1.8%                    
                                                                      
                            512,735                           573,164 
 Bitumen                                      7.9%                    
                                                                      
                            709,545                           704,692 
 Lubricants                                                           
 Liquefied                                   12.7%                    
 petroleum gas                                                        
                          1,784,671                         1,737,270 
 TOTAL OIL DEMAND                             5.6%                    
                          11,863,401                                  
                                                           11,435,925

There is no month-to-month comparison for production data because China did not publish February’s production data.

China stopped publishing lubricant data including import, export and output in 2016.

China did not export naphtha in March.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Meng Meng and Aizhu Chen Editing by Joseph Radford)

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