China’s January, February iron ore imports to slide as cyclones hit Australian supply

Iron ore imports to top consumer China for the first two months of 2025 are set to slide as weeks of tropical cyclones and bad weather in major producer Australia hit shipments, according to analysts.

Imports of the key steelmaking ingredient in January and February are forecast to be at least 10% less than the 209.45 million metric tons notched over the same period last year, analysts said.

Ship tracking service Kpler sees Chinese iron ore imports for January and February at 191.7 million tons, down 10.4% year-on-year.

Cyclones and bad weather mean shipments from Australia, the source of almost two-thirds of China’s iron ore, are forecast to drop by 8 million tons-20 million tons in the first two months of 2025.

“Since it’s a cyclone at category five, mining area activities, port infrastructures and marine transport might all be affected, so the actual impact might be higher than the current estimate,” said Pei Hao, senior analyst at international brokerage Freight Investor Services (FIS).

Official import data for January and February will be published on March 7. China combines the data for the two months into one release to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays.

Rio Tinto RIO said last month it expects its first-quarter shipments to be impacted by heavy rainfall following cyclone Sean and that it would update the market at its results.

That was before the latest tropical cyclone Zelia forced the miner to suspend port operations this week. Zelia made landfall on Australia’s west coast on Friday.

BHP BHP and Fortescue FMG have paused their Port Hedland operations for safety. Fortescue said it had also closed its Iron Bridge mining operations and canceled non-essential travel to the Pilbara sites.
Rio Tinto said it had cleared its Cape Lambert and Dampier port operations and there were no longer any ships or trains operating at its ports.
Fears of supply disruptions have helped stem falling prices caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff threat.

But the upside room for ore prices is limited with a ceiling at around $115 a ton, as Trump’s new tariffs are expected to cast some shadow on demand, FIS’ Pei said.
Source: Reuters