China’s thermal power generation falls on year for second straight month

China’s thermal power generation fell on the year for a second straight month in June as hydropower generation surged, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Thermal electricity, generated mostly by coal-fired capacity, fell 7.4% in June after declining by 4.3% in May.

However, thermal output still rose 1.7% over the first six months as a whole.

Hydropower volumes rose 44.5% in June and 21.4% over the first six months.

The trend could put China on track for a year-on-year decline in coal use for 2024 as a whole, if hydropower output remains strong, said David Fishman, a senior manager at Shanghai-based energy consultancy the Lantau Group.

However, he cautioned that extreme weather, such as a serious heat wave combined with drought this summer, could slow down that progress.

That is what happened in August 2022 following an unprecedented heat wave that led to power shortages, eroded hydropower generation and drove China to turn back to coal generation.

The country generated 768.5 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power in June, up 2.3% compared with the same period of last year, according to NBS.

However, analysts say the NBS data does not fully capture the growth in power generation, especially for renewables, because it only includes enterprises with annual revenue of 20 million yuan ($2.75 million) or more from their principal businesses.

That leaves out many smaller generators, notably rooftop solar installations.

Over the first six months as a whole, power generation reached 4.44 trillion kWh, according to NBS, up 5.2% compared with the same period of last year.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)