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Composite Leading Indicators continue point to slowing growth in most major economies

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points and economic fluctuations relative to trend, continue to signal a weak outlook in the OECD area and in most major economies based on information up to November 2022.

Among major OECD economies, the CLIs continue to point to slowing growth in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, as well as in the euro area, including Germany, France and Italy. As in the last few months, these developments can be primarily attributed to high inflation and increasing interest rates. By contrast, stable growth continues to be expected in Japan.

Among major emerging economies, the signals remain mixed. In China (industrial sector) the CLI confirmed the signs of stabilising growth emerged in last month’s assessment and now points to stable growth, driven by the production of motor vehicles and share prices. But in India, and now also Brazil, the CLIs anticipate growth losing momentum, reflecting soft monetary indicators (M1) and slowing orders in manufacturing, respectively.

Given the persistent uncertainties related to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the CLI components might be subject to larger-than-usual fluctuations. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.

This is the final OECD Composite Leading Indicators news release in the current format. From January 2023 a new Dashboard on Short-Term Indicators will supersede this release, presenting a broader picture of recent macroeconomic developments. It will be updated twice a month and cover the G7 economies and key emerging economies. The CLIs will continue to be estimated for a reduced set of countries (most G20 economies plus Spain), and will be disseminated through the new dashboard and OECD.Stat.
Source: OECD

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