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December Jobs Report to Provide Final Look on a Decade of Gains

The Labor Department will give a broad picture of how the jobs market fared last year with the release of the December jobs report. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect employers added jobs at a slower pace during the month while unemployment remained at a 50-year low. Here is what to watch for in the jobs report when it is released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

A Decade of Gains

Job creation slowed in 2019 from a more robust 2018, but the December figure — and any revisions to prior months — will determine how the year stacks up in the decadelong economic expansion. Economists expect 160,000 jobs were added in December. That would place 2019 as the third lowest year for job creation during the expansion, just behind 2017. If employers don’t add at least 98,000 jobs, 2019 would be the lowest for job growth since 2010. The U.S. has seen payroll gains every year since 2010, a historically long stretch of job creation that is consistent with a growing U.S. economy. Last year’s cooling reflects employers’ difficulty finding enough workers, global uncertainty and the fading effects of 2018’s tax cuts.

Half-Century Low

The unemployment rate is expected to close the decade at 3.5%. That could mark the third month in 2019 when the rate matched the lowest reading since 1969. Watch for revisions to unemployment data that occur annually in the December report, which could alter monthly rate readings.

Americans with lower levels of education in particular have benefited by more easily being able to find a job in the tight labor market. The unemployment rate for high-school dropouts touched a record low last year. Conversely, the unemployment rate for those with at least a bachelor’s degree remains slightly higher than it was in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Women in the Workforce

The number of jobs held by women — not counting the self-employed and farm laborers — could surpass the number of men in December. The gender gap has narrowed in recent years, and in November men held just 26,000 more jobs than women. (The Labor Department categorizes all workers as either a man or a woman, as reported by their employer.) It would mark the second period when women outnumbered men on payrolls. The first occurred in 2009 and 2010, when men disproportionately lost jobs in manufacturing and construction during the recession. Recent gains for women reflect strong hiring in fields such as health care and hospitality. Men still account for a larger share of the total workforce because they make a larger share of self-employed Americans.

Wage Watch

Economists expect slightly stronger wage growth in December from November. That would be consistent with employers needing to pay more to attract workers when unemployment is extremely low. However, a calendar quirk could restrain gains. This December the 12th of the month, the date on which the wage survey is based, and the 15th, a common payday, didn’t fall in the same week — something that often leads to artificially depressed wage growth calculations. Also, watch to see if the gap between production workers and supervisors persists.

Source: Dow Jones

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