Dry Bulk FFA: Panamax Index Still Bullish
The index remains technically bullish above its MA’s, but these have started to flatten, and price action is showing neutral tendencies.
The June 18 futures have broken to the downside and remain below key averages. However, this is into key support with a bullish divergence indicating it is not a technical sell. Upside moves that close above USD 11,410 would create a fresh market high and suggest the technical picture is firming.
The Q3 technical is firmly stuck in a range between USD 11,615 and USD 11,880 and in need of a directional breakout.
The Cal 19 futures remain technically bullish having made higher highs and higher lows. However, the 5 period MA continues to act as a market resistance at USD 11,442. A close above USD 11,445 would make a fresh market high as well as being above the 55- period average and be regarded as technically bullish. Downside moves that close below the USD 11,280 would make a fresh market low and be below the 21 period EMA and be regarded as technically bearish.
Supramax Index Weekly
Resistance – 11,165, 11,314, 11,513,
Support – 10,671, 10,498, 10,059
The weekly index continues to hold at the 8 and 21 period EMA’s which have now started to flatten, indicating the index is no longer in trend. This is supported by price action which although in bullish territory has now made a higher low and a lower high.
Upside moves that close above the USD 11,165 would create a higher high and indicate the that technical picture is once again turning bullish. However, a weekly close below the USD 10,671 would confirm that the index has entered a corrective phase with near term targets at the 55 period MA at USD 9,988.
Subdued price action for the index that is showing neutral tendencies.
Supramax June 18 (Rolling Front Month)
Resistance – 11,410, 11,700, 11,905
Support – 11,180, 11,145, 10,685
Neutral to bearish last week as price action remained below the EMA’s but in a symmetrical triangle, this was countered by oversold momentum indicators.
The breakout in the June futures has been to the downside, however the breakout itself is more than 2/3rds of the way through the pattern and nearing the apex. From a technical perspective this does make the pattern less reliable once past the 2/3rds point.
Momentum remains in oversold territory with price now testing the 50% Fibonacci support level (Jan-Mar 18) at USD 11,145 and this is a
key technical level. We also see a bullish divergence with the stochastic, not a sell signal it does warn that downside momentum is slowing.
Technically the June futures are in bearish territory, below averages with a pattern breakout.
However, the breakout is unreliable due to being close to the apex, whilst testing key Fibonacci support and showing a bullish divergence with the stochastic. Technically bearish, but not a technical sell.
Supramax Q3 18 Daily
Resistance – 11,855, 11,880, 12,090, 12,270
Support – 11,615, 11,080, 10,990
This technical is currently rangebound and has been for nearly 8 weeks.
Upside moves that close above USD 11,880 would have bullish implication and downside moves that close below USD 11,615 would have bearish implications.
Form a technical perspective there isn’t much else to say on this.
Supramax Cal 19 Daily
Resistance – 11,445, 11,740, 11,870
Support – 11,380, 11,280, 11,110
The longer-term trend on the Cal 19 futures remain in bullish territory having broken out the top of the ascending triangle a week ago. However, price action remains below the 55 period MA and this continues to act as a market resistance at USD 11,442.
The Cal 19 continues to trade around the 0.618% Fibonacci resistance at USD 11,394 and this does bring in a level of subjectivity regarding the Elliott wave count (leg B of 4 or leg 1 of 5?). however, price action is making higher highs and higher lows which is technically bullish.
Upside moves that close above the USD 11,445 would create a fresh market high and be above the 55 period MA, this would be considered as technically bullish. Likewise, downside moves that close below the USD 11,280 support would also be below the 21 period EMA and be considered as technically bearish.