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Dry Bulk Shipping: Australia’s Coal Exports to China Soared by 51.4% in 2024

Australian coal exports to China soared during 2024, helping sustain solid freight demand. In a recent report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “in Jan-Dec 2024, global seaborne coal loadings increased by +2.4% yo-y to 1,371.8 mln t (excluding cabotage), based on vessel tracking data from AXS Marine. This represents a slowdown from the +5.8% y-o-y growth seen in 2023. In Jan-Dec 2024, exports from Indonesia increased by +7.7% y-o-y to 532.9 mln tonnes, whilst from Australia were up by +3.5% y-o-y to 356.1 mln t. From Russia exports declined by -12.2% y-o-y to 162.1 mln t in JanDec 2024, from the USA increased by +4.6% y-o-y to 90.6 mln t, from South Africa increased by +2.2% y-oy to 62.1 mln t. Shipments from Colombia declined by -0.8% y-o-y to 55.9 mln t in JanDec 2024, from Canada down by -1.5% y-o-y to 49.2 mln t, and from Mozambique by -10.5% t-o-y to 21.3 mln t”.

Source: Banchero Costa

According to Banchero Costa, “seaborne coal imports into Mainland China increased by +15.9% y-o-y to 427.1 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024. Imports to India declined by -1.8% yo-y to 236.5 mln t, to Japan declined by -2.1% y-o-y to 157.1 mln t in JanDec 2024, to South Korea -6.2% y-oy to 110.2 mln t. To the EU imports were down by -27.2% y-o-y to 25.3 mln tonnes in Jan-Dec 2024, whilst to Vietnam volumes increased by +19.1% y-o-y to 56.5 mln tonnes. Australia is the second largest exporter of coal worldwide, with 26.0% of global seaborne coal exports in Jan-Dec 2024, quite far behind Indonesia which had a 38.8% share in Jan-Dec 2024”.

“Coal shipments from Australia were drastically affected in 2021-2022 by the country being backlisted by Mainland China, previously Australia’s largest customer. That said, Australian exporters were relatively successful in finding new markets limiting the impact on overall volumes, and the Chinese ban was effectively reversed from the beginning of 2023. In 2022, Australian coal exports fell sharply by -7.8% y-o-y to 329.1 mln t, from 356.9 mln tonnes in 2021, based on AXS Marine data. In 2023, volumes out of Australia rebounded to 344.1 mln t, or +4.6% y-o-y. In 2024, shipments increased further by +3.5% y-o-y to 356.1 mln tonnes. The main coal export terminals in Australia are Newcastle (143.4 mln tonnes loaded in Jan-Dec 2024), Gladstone (67.0 mln t), Dalrymple Bay (61.2 mln t), Hay Point (38.5 mln t), Abbot Point (35.3 mln t), Port Kembla (6.4 mln t), Brisbane (4.0 mln t), Geraldton (0.1 mln t). The majority (61%) of coal volumes shipped from Australia in Jan-Dec 2024 were loaded on Panamax or Post-Panamax tonnage, with 36% of volumes shipped on Capesize vessels, and 3% on Handy or Supra tonnage”, the shipbroker said.

Source: Banchero Costa

Banchero Costa added that “there have been quite remarkable reshuffles in terms of trade patterns over the last few years, driven by political considerations. Coal exports from Australia to Mainland China surged by +51.4% yo-y in Jan-Dec 2024, to 84.8 mln tonnes, from 56.0 mln t in 2023. Let’s remember that in 2022, due to the “unofficial” Chinese ban, Australia shipped just 0.3 mln tonnes of coal to China. Mainland China now again accounts for 23.8% of Australia’s coal exports. The top destination however is still Japan, with 105.3 mln tonnes in JanDec 2024, up +2.3% y-o-y, accounting for 29.6% of Australian coal exports. In third place, with 11.3%, is India. In 2024, Australia exported 40.3 mln t of coal to India, down -18.5% y-o-y, from 49.4 mln in 2023. This is now a significant climbdown from the peak 70.1 mln tonnes shipped from Australia to India in 2021. To Taiwan, volumes declined by -7.0% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2024 to 26.8 mln t. To the EU volumes increased by +2.3% y-o-y to 18.1 mln t. To Vietnam, volumes declined by -14.2% y-o-y to 17.1 mln t”, the shipbroker concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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