Dry Bulk Shipping: South Africa Coal Exports on the Decline

Coal exports from South Africa have been declining over the past few years, despite a rising trend overall in the seaborne coal trade. In a recent weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Sep 2024 the positive trend continued, with global coal loadings increasing by +2.1% y-o-y to 1012.0 mln t, from 991.2 mln t in the same period last year, based on vessel tracking data from AXS Marine. In Jan-Sep 2024, exports from Indonesia increased by +7.9% y-o-y to 388.8 mln t, whilst from Australia were up +3.3% y-o-y to 261.7 mln t. From Russia exports declined by -14.5% y-o-y to 123.5 mln t in JanSep 2024, from the USA increased by +5.2% y-o-y to 67.2 mln t, from South Africa declined -2.5% y-o-y to 43.9 mln t. Shipments from Colombia increased by +6.5% y-o-y to 43.5 mln t in JanSep 2024, from Canada down by -0.6% y-o-y to 36.9 mln t, and from Mozambique were down by -9.5% yo-y to 15.9 mln t. Seaborne coal imports into Mainland China increased by +12.2% y-o-y to 302.7 mln t in Jan-Sep 2024, to India increased by +7.8% y-o-y to 184.5 mln t, to Japan declined by -5.1% yo-y to 115.1 mln t in Jan-Sep 2024. Shipments to South Korea declined by -6.0% y-o-y to 83.7 mln t, to the EU down -36.2% y-o-y to 44.8 mln tonnes, to Vietnam surged by +22.8% y-o-y to 44.2 mln t, to Taiwan declined by -4.1% y-o-y to 43.9 mln tonnes in Jan-Sep 2024.

According to Banchero Costa, “South Africa is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, after Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and the USA. It accounted for 4.5% of global coal exports in 2023. Export volumes from South Africa had steadily declined in the past decade, as it was penalized by declining coal demand in the Atlantic basin, the country’s distance from the more resilient East Asian markets, as well as limitations on output and railway and port capacity. Essentially all coal exports from South Africa are loaded at Richards Bay in KwaZulu-Natal, on the eastern coast of the country. Richards Bay has the deepest natural harbour on the African continent”.

“Total seaborne coal exports from South Africa in 2022 reached 60.6 mln tonnes, -4.9% y-o-y from 63.7 mln tonnes in 2021, and also below the 72.1 mln tonnes in 2020 and the 75.4 mln t in 2019, according to AXS Marine vessel tracking data. Last year volumes remained essentially flat. In the full 12 months of 2023, South Africa exported 60.8 mln tonnes of coal, marginally up by +0.4% y-o-y. In the first half of 2023 there has been a surprising rebound, with exports of 34.1 mln t, up +8.8% y-o-y from the same period in 2022. Over the last few years there have been significant reshuffles in terms of trade patterns, resulting from European sanctions on Russian coal. Coal exports from South Africa to the European Union surged by +655.3% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2022 to 17.6 mln tonnes, from just 2.3 mln t in 2021.

However, volumes to the EU corrected down by -59.7% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2023 to 7.1 mln t. In Jan-Sep 2024, volumes to the EU declined further by -64.4% y-o-y to just 1.9 mln t (that’s just 4.3% of South Africa’s total exports). India remains the top destination for S. African coal, accounting for 48.5% of S. African exports in Jan-Sep 2024. In Jan-Dec 2023, shipments from South Africa to India rebounded by +39.8% y-o-y to 27.6 mln t, from 19.7 mln t in Jan-Dec 2022, but that was still below the 36.1 mln t in JanDec 2020. In Jan-Sep 2024, exports to India increased +8.1% y-o-y to 21.3 mln t. Shipments from South Africa to South Korea also surged by +105.3% y-o-y in 2022 to 6.7 mln t, from just 3.3 mln t in 2021, but then corrected by -9.6% y-o-y in 2023 to 6.0 mln t. Exports to Mainland China declined by -91.7% y-o-y in 2022 to 0.7 mln tonnes, from 9.0 mln t in 2021, and then rebounded by +62.2% y-o-y in 2023 to 1.2 mln t”, Banchero Costa concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide