Dryad Global: Maritime Trends for 2025

In the Indian Ocean along the East African coast, a resurgence of piracy is anticipated in 2025, facilitated by favorable weather conditions and a security vacuum left by the withdrawal of U.S. and EU naval forces. This follows recent pirate activities, including the use of hijacked fishing vessels as motherships, suggesting an increase in hijackings for ransom. Despite the Indian Navy’s role as an effective deterrent, the situation might escalate without sustained international naval support. In the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the security environment is expected to remain unchanged, with Houthi attacks continuing, albeit with reduced effectiveness after the departure of an Iranian support vessel.

The U.S. plans to shift from naval to air support, while EUNAVFOR offers limited escorts. Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni infrastructure could temporarily disrupt Houthi operations, yet without significant policy changes, their long- term threat may persist. The Mediterranean faces heightened security volatility due to Israeli military operations and the collapse of the Assad regime, potentially leading to civil war in Syria. Hezbollah’s supply routes have been disrupted, which might force them into new alliances or reduce their military capabilities. The implementation of Sharia law by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham could impact maritime trade negatively due to reduced infrastructure investment and increased security concerns.

In the Caribbean, instability in Haiti is driving maritime migration, smuggling, and crime, with Russian military exercises further adding to regional tensions. U.S. policy shifts on deportation could strain maritime resources and international relations, while China’s increasing influence might reshape logistics and security around key maritime infrastructure.

The Black Sea region is poised for severe risks to shipping due to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, involving airstrikes, WBIEDs, and electronic warfare. Efforts to clear sea mines by regional navies may reduce one aspect of the threat, but ceasefire negotiations are unlikely to ease tensions as both nations continue strategic maritime operations. In the Gulf of Guinea, piracy has decreased, yet the underlying socio-economic factors that fuel piracy persist, with the main threat being illegal boardings at ports. Political stability from upcoming elections could influence maritime security alongside the potential spread of Sahelian terrorism to coastal states. The South China Sea is poised to become a geopolitical hotspot, with potential shipping disruptions due to rising tensions between China, the United States, and regional allies. Finally, in 2025, the global maritime sector will face sophisticated cybersecurity threats such as AI-driven attacks, ransomware, and operational technology vulnerabilities, as well as state-

sponsored cyber operations, requiring the industry to strengthen its defenses to secure operations in an increasingly digital and interconnected environment.

Cybersecurity Threats in Maritime for 2025
The maritime industry in 2025 faces an increasingly complex and dynamic cybersecurity landscape. As digital systems, automation, and global connectivity deepen across vessels and port facilities, the risks posed by cyber threats have never been more significant. Dryad Global forecasts that mitigating these threats will require robust defences, proactive intelligence, and comprehensive industry expertise to ensure resilience and operational continuity.

Emerging Cyber Threats
Cybercriminals are leveraging advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs), to conduct more adaptive and precise attacks. These innovations allow the creation of sophisticated zero-day exploits and phishing campaigns that evade traditional
detection methods. Ransomware remains a dominant threat but is evolving into more targeted attacks aimed at crippling critical systems in vessels and ports. Supply chain attacks are also
becoming a significant concern, as interconnected maritime operations present multiple points of vulnerability.

Operational Technology (OT) Vulnerabilities
OT systems, which govern essential shipboard functions such as navigation, propulsion, and cargo handling, remain a major focus for attackers. Many of these systems rely on outdated software and lack modern cybersecurity measures, making them highly susceptible to breaches. Additionally, the growing interconnectivity of IT and OT systems introduces cascading risks, where a single breach can disrupt both operational and digital environments. Direct attacks on OT systems could result in vessel immobilisation, navigational failures, or safety incidents, making the security of these systems a top priority.

State-Sponsored Cyber Operations Geopolitical tensions are driving a surge in state-sponsored cyber operations targeting maritime infrastructure. These attacks often focus on disrupting global trade, destabilising economies, or asserting dominance in contested regions such as the South China Sea and the Arctic. Hybrid warfare tactics, where cyber campaigns precede or accompany physical confrontations, are expected to rise, posing complex risks to maritime stakeholders.

Autonomous Systems and Automation Risks
The adoption of autonomous vessels and automated port operations introduces new vulnerabilities. Cyber attackers may exploit unsecured software, communication systems, or autonomous drones to disrupt operations or gain control over critical systems. Securing these emerging technologies is essential to maintaining the safety and efficiency of future maritime operations.

Regulatory and Compliance Challenges
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and other regulatory bodies are tightening cybersecurity requirements to address the growing threat landscape. However, compliance remains a challenge for many operators, particularly smaller entities with limited resources. Gaps in implementation may leave organisations exposed, underscoring the need for tailored solutions and expert guidance to navigate these requirements effectively.

In 2025, the maritime industry will contend with unprecedented cybersecurity challenges, from AI-driven attacks and OT vulnerabilities to geopolitical cyber conflicts. Maritime operators must adopt proactive measures and invest in comprehensive cybersecurity strategies to remain resilient in this volatile landscape. Dryad Global invites operators to take the first step by conducting a cybersecurity survey and consulting with our experts for a tailored risk assessment. With the right partner, maritime entities can safeguard operations, meet regulatory demands, and stay ahead of adversaries in an increasingly interconnected world.

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Source: Dryad Global