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EIA forecasts US coal production under 700 million st in 2019, down 7.2% on year

The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production to total 699.8 million st in 2019, down 7.2% from last year’s production of about 754 million st, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook reported.

June’s forecast for 2019 output was flat from May’s forecast, however the 2020 projection increased 1.2% from the previous month to almost 646 million st. This was the highest forecast for next year since the EIA projected output of about 664 million st in March.

Compared with the 2019 June forecast, the 2020 forecast was down 7.8%.

Coal exports this year were projected to total 98.7 million st in the June report, compared with 97.9 million st in May’s STEO. From 2018 exports, the EIA projects a 14.6% drop.

In 2020, the EIA forecast 93.2 million st of exports, down 5.6% from the 2019 projection and flat from the previous month’s forecast.
Power sector consumption was forecast to total 555 million st this year, down 12.8% from 2018 consumption, and 517 million st next year, down 6.9% from the 2019 projection.

Total US consumption was forecast to be 601.8 million st in 2019, down 12.5% from the previous year and down 0.4% from May’s forecast. The EIA 2020 forecast was 567 million st, down 5.8% from the 2019 forecast.

Compared with US coal-powered generation of 27.4% in 2018, the EIA projected coal generation share of 24% in 2019, flat from May’s STEO, and 23% in 2020, up from 22% in the previous month’s forecast.

Natural gas generation share this year was projected to be 37% in the most recent STEO, while the 2020 generation forecast was 38%, both flat from May’s forecast.

The EIA forecast gas production at 97.6 Bcf/d for 2019 June, which would be up 17.1% from 2018 production, while the 2020 forecast was 99.1 Bcf/d, up 1.5% from the 2019 forecast. Power sector consumption this year was predicted to be 29.7 Bcf/d, up 2.5% from 2018 consumption, and 30.2 Bcf/d in 2020, up 1.5% year on year.
Source: Platts

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