ENGINE: East of Suez Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook

Singapore and Malaysia

In Singapore, the availability of VLSFO has tightened due to several suppliers running low on stocks and limited barge availability. Most suppliers now recommend lead times of 12-22 days for VLSFO, up from 12-18 days last week.

HSFO availability also remains tight for both prompt and non-prompt delivery dates, with recommended lead times of 12-16 days, almost the same as last week. In contrast, the availability of LSMGO has improved, with lead times dropping from 2-12 days last week to 2-5 days now.

According to the latest data from Enterprise Singapore, the country’s residual fuel oil stocks have averaged 3% lower so far in July than compared to June. The port’s fuel oil stocks have dropped below 20 million bbls despite a significant 27% increase in Singapore’s net fuel oil imports this month. Both fuel oil imports and exports have risen in July, with imports increasing by 876,000 bbls and exports by 22,000 bbls.

Unlike fuel oil, the port’s middle distillate stocks have surged, averaging 11% higher so far this month.

In Malaysia’s Port Klang, VLSFO and LSMGO grades are plentiful, with some suppliers providing prompt deliveries for smaller quantities. However, the supply of HSFO is largely limited.

East Asia

Availability of all grades remains good in Zhoushan, with several suppliers recommending lead times of 5-7 days.

In Northern China, VLSFO and LSMGO grades are readily available in Dalian, Qingdao, and Tianjin. However, HSFO supply is limited in Qingdao and Tianjin. Shanghai also has a good supply of VLSFO and LSMGO, but HSFO availability is scarce. In Fuzhou and Xiamen, VLSFO and LSMGO grades are easily accessible, while prompt availability is restricted in Guangzhou and Yangpu.

In Taiwanese ports, VLSFO and LSMGO availability remain strong. A major supplier in Keelung and Hualien can supply both grades within two days, while in Taichung and Kaohsiung it takes 3-5 days.

In Hong Kong, all bunker fuel grades are available, and suppliers generally recommend lead times of seven days.

In South Korean ports, availability of all grades has tightened despite sluggish demand this week. Lead times for VLSFO and LSMGO now range from 3-11 days, up from around three days last week. HSFO requires longer lead times of approximately 8-14 days, significantly up from around three days in western South Korean ports and 3-8 days in southern ports last week.

High waves are predicted to intermittently hit the South Korean ports of Ulsan, Onsan, and Yeosu between 2-4 August, and in Daesan and Yeosu on 2 August, potentially affecting bunker deliveries at these ports.

In Japan, LSMGO and HSFO supplies remain strong in major ports, including Tokyo, Chiba, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Osaka, Kobe, Sakai, Nagoya, Yokkaichi, Mizushima, and Oita. However, VLSFO availability has tightened across all major ports due to unknown technical issues at refineries. The supply tightness is particularly noted in Tokyo, Chiba, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Nagoya, and Yokkaichi, with expectations that it will continue until early August, a source says.

The closure of Idemitsu Kosan’s Yamaguchi refinery in March, which had a crude oil processing capacity of 120,000 b/d, has further constrained bunker supply in Oita, necessitating advance orders from bunker buyers.

Oceania

In Western Australia, VLSFO and LSMGO are available at ports including Kwinana, Fremantle, and Kembla, with typical lead times of 7-8 days. A bunker barge operating in Fremantle will be in dry dock from early September to mid-November, making VLSFO unavailable at that port during this period, a source says.

In New South Wales, LSMGO is readily available in Sydney, while prompt HSFO supply depends on the enquiry.

In Victoria’s ports of Melbourne and Geelong, VLSFO and LSMGO are readily available, though prompt HSFO deliveries can be challenging. In Queensland, Brisbane and Gladstone have ample stocks of VLSFO and LSMGO with lead times of around 7-8 days, but HSFO availability is limited in Brisbane.

In New Zealand, Tauranga and Auckland have ample VLSFO supply, with Auckland also having good LSMGO availability. However, rough weather expected in Tauranga on Friday and Saturday may impact bunker operations.

South Asia

In several Indian ports, including Kandla, Mumbai, Tuticorin, Chennai, Cochin, and Visakhapatnam, VLSFO and LSMGO availability remains constrained as in recent weeks. In Haldia, both grades are subject to availability, while a supplier in Paradip is nearly out of stock for both.

Kandla, Sikka, and Mumbai ports are forecast to experience rough weather intermittently through the week, potentially disrupting bunker operations.

In contrast, the Sri Lankan port of Colombo has ample supplies of VLSFO, LSMGO, and HSFO, with lead times of around five days recommended.

Middle East

In Fujairah, prompt availability of all grades remains tight due to some suppliers experiencing delays in loading products from oil terminals caused by recent bad weather, according to a source. Most suppliers recommend a lead time of around 7-10 days, nearly unchanged from last week.

In Iraq’s Basrah, VLSFO and LSMGO are readily available, while both grades are nearly depleted in Qatar’s Ras Laffan.

The Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah has a good LSMGO supply, but VLSFO availability is constrained. In Djibouti, both VLSFO and LSMGO supplies are tight. Omani ports, including Sohar, Salalah, Muscat, and Duqm, have ample LSMGO supply with prompt supply available.
Source: ENGINE, By Tuhin Roy, https://engine.online/news