Europe Gas: Prices down as healthy inventories outweigh cold forecast

Dutch and British gas prices fell on Tuesday, despite forecasts of colder weather, as healthy inventories and strong flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supported the market.

The Dutch December contract fell 0.35 euros to 45.40 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0927 GMT, LSEG data showed. The Dutch day-ahead contract was down 0.42 euro at 45.13 euros/MWh.

“We continue to have robust supply from Europe’s baseload routes – Norway and LNG, which is a stabilizing factor on top of the 99% full stocks,” LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv said.

European gas storage inventories have started to drop but remain at record highs for the time of year, at 99% full, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.

However, prices are forecast to rise as temperatures are forecast a little lower on the day ahead and generally across the prompt, Onyshkiv said, adding that this is expected to add some 639 gigawatt hour per day (GWh/d) to Northwest Europe demand for heating.

In Britain, the day-ahead contract fell by 3.00 pence to 112.00 p/therm, LSEG data showed.

The British December contract was down by 1.55 pence to 114.95 p/therm.

Stronger winds are expected to reduce demand for gas for power usage by half, LSEG data showed.

Peak wind power generation in Britain was forecast at 10.7 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday, rising to 17.1 GW on Wednesday, out of total metered capacity of about 23 GW, Elexon data showed.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 fell by 0.31 euro to 76.30 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Marwa Rashad, Editing by Alexander Smith)